思想領導

Investors remain engaged

Logistics leasing activity levels revived in Q3 with operators opting to renewal in order to minimize business disruption, while those with expansion needs were looking for relocation options.

• The revival of the local trading and retail sectors has meant that many logistics operators were keen to renew leases to avoid business disruption, while those with expansion demand chose to relocate. 
• Overall and modern warehouse rents continued to rebound by 2.1% and 2.5% in Q3/2021 respectively, while both overall and modern warehouse vacancy rates fell to 3.2% and 2.6% over the same quarter, after a small spike last quarter.
• Investment sentiment continued to revive in Q3 with 17 major deals of over HK$100 million concluded worth a total of over HK$7.3 billion.  While investment funds were still keen on the high yield logistics sector, we note more participation from logistics operators (for eventual owner-occupation) and developers (for redevelopment).
• With local and global supply chains both expected to continue to rebound, short-term logistics demand seems to be sustainable. Nevertheless, a total of 7 million sq ft of new warehouse space is scheduled to come on stream over the next two years, so far with little pre-commitment, and this will test market resolve when it arrives in 2022 and 2023. 
• The robust investment sentiment for warehouse assets so far this year has already pushed prices up and yields down.  With Revitalization Policy 2.0 extended for another three years, we expect industrial investment to refocus more on run-down industrial premises with redevelopment potential.

本文原載於 https://www.savills.com.hk/

• Based on the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s (MTI) Q2 2021 economic survey, Singapore’s economy grew 14.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the second quarter of 2021. On a quarter-onquarter (q-o-q) seasonally-adjusted basis, Singapore’s economy actually contracted by 1.8% in Q2 2021, compared to the 3.3% q-o-q expansion recorded in the first quarter of 2021.
• Manufacturing continued to drive the recovery in Singapore, as semiconductor manufacturers and sub-contractors supporting electronics firms reaped the benefits of the global chip shortage. The precision engineering and electronics clusters recorded 24.3% and 18.3% y-o-y growth respectively. These numbers were overshadowed by the impressive growths seen in the transport engineering and chemicals clusters, which recorded 29.6% and 20.1% y-o-y growth respectively, although this was largely the result of the low base effects in 2020.

本文原載於 https://www.knightfrank.com/

• Prices of non-landed private residential properties (excluding Executive Condominiums (ECs)) grew by a marginal 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q3 2021** to 159.6, with transactions in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) being the main contributor to the rise. The quarterly increase was moderated when compared to Q1 and Q2 2021, where the index grew by 2.5% and 1.1% respectively.
• There were 7,103 non-landed private homes (excluding ECs) transactions in Q3 2021*, a slight 1.4% decrease q-o-q. While both Q2 and Q3 2021 included periods where Singapore was in or reverted to Phase 2 (Heightened Alert), quarterly sales volume largely held up above a respectable 7,000 units. Especially when compared to an average of about 4,162 units during the pre-pandemic year of 2019*.

本文原載於 https://www.knightfrank.com/

• Keeping with the general upbeat pace of deals in the real estate market, the third quarter recorded some S$7.5 billion of investment deals, with 49.7% contributed by transactions in the public sector. This transaction volume represents a 38.7% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) increase from the S$5.4 billion in the previous quarter, and a 58.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth from the S$4.8 billion in the same period last year.
• The bulk of investment volume in Q3 was driven by the sale of four Government Land Sales (GLS) sites, with the award of the Marina View reserve site at S$1.5 billion being the top land sale, followed by the Jalan Anak Bukit parcel at S$1.0 billion. With frenzied bidding at certain recent GLS tenders, other land-hungry developers may shift their focus towards the greater diversity offered by smallersized plots in a variety of locations, such as sites with more palatable quantums where owners are attempting a collective sale. With the seal of the Flynn Park collective sale deal at S$371 million or S$1,355 psf ppr, this could cause a ripple effect in the en bloc market given that many owners are keen to collectively sell their ageing units. As such, projects in the range of S$600 million and below with about 600 units might just find willing buyers.

本文原載於 https://www.knightfrank.com/

CBRE Research recently analysed the land and buildings held on balance sheets across 40 ASX200/NZX50 listed companies. What we discovered was that well over $AU24 billion of capital could be unlocked and reinvested into higher returning opportunities in the Materials, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Transport and Industrial sectors in Australia and New Zealand.

There is strong demand from listed and unlisted property funds for long-term leased properties. The ability to capitalise on improving market values, dispose of under-utilised assets and acquire capital to fund other business strategies are just some of the reasons why listed corporates are targeting owner-occupier sales. In the Pacific region alone, there has been a well-worn path of owner-occupier real with c.AU$11 billion already realised over the past five years.

With significant yield compression evident across all commercial asset types since 2015, particularly in the industrial property sector, the opportunity could be even higher than our initial AU$24 billion estimate as corporates in Australia and New Zealand revisit their property occupancy strategies to unlock value.

本文原載於 https://www.cbre.com/

Australia’s residential pricing has reached record highs, with continued strong growth across almost all markets. The national median house price had risen 18.4% over the year to June with the national median unit price up 8.6%. There are signs, however, that price and lending growth is attracting the attention of regulators, with some forms of macro-prudential intervention looming. Initial curbs are likely to target highly leverage borrowers. APRA has already increased the minimum interest rate buffer ADI’s use in assessing loan serviceability from 2.5ppts to 3ppts above the actual loan rate, while Australia’s major banks have begun to take a more cautionary approach to some of their lending criteria.

本文原載於 https://www.cbre.com/

• Compared to Q1 2021, investors are displaying a higher risk appetite amid the tight yield environment
• Asset enhancement, repositioning and taking on leasing risk are among the strategies utilised by investors to achieve higher returns
• Logistics assets remain keenly sought after while Grade A office in prime locations are attracting enquiries as investors look to capture flight-to-quality demand
• Further logistics cap rate compression has been observed. Cap rates for office and retail remain largely unchanged
• Investors are placing a strong emphasis on income-related factors such as tenant quality, rent roll stability and potential rental growth
• Amid uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic, the economic outlook is investors’ primary concern in 2022. Concerns over interest rate hikes and high inflation are limited

本文原載於 https://www.cbre.com/

Sectoral performance in real estate is always under the microscope, but it has never been so acutely examined and reported as it has in the past 12 months. As COVID-19 first spread across the Asia Pacific region and then the globe, bringing with it a global recession, investors and occupiers alike sought not only to limit their exposures but also identify opportunities for growth.

Just as we have seen differing performance between commercial real estate sectors, so too have we seen differing performances within the retail sector. In this report, we focus on the upper echelons of retail – the (super) prime retail streets in cities across the region – as well as discuss other relevant aspects within the sector.

本文原載於 https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/

資本市場

With economic recovery gaining traction, preliminary real estate investment volume in Singapore increased 3.3% q-o-q to $7.317 bn for Q3 2021.

辦公室

In Q3 2021, the Delta variant outbreak prompted a re-tightening of safe management measures. Despite the precarious situation, some positive signs were observed in Q3 2021.

Business Parks

The leasing performance of the business park market is divided into two tiers; leasing demand is concentrated within the City Fringe submarket while demand for space in the Rest of Island submarket remains subdued.

零售

Recovery momentum for the retail market continued to be halted by retightened measures. There was recurring pressure on the submarkets that were affected by work-from-home measures and weak travel demand.

住宅

Despite heightened restrictions from end-Jul to mid-Aug 2021, market sentiment was not dampened. New home sales from Jan to Aug 2021 came to 9,265 units, 92.8% of 2020’s volume.

工業的

On the back of improving occupancies and strong leasing activity, landlords’ rental expectations increased. Occupier activity comprised of third-party logistics, food storage and electronics.

本文原載於 https://www.cbre.com/

Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam today (6 October 2021) delivered the final Policy Address of her current term. Her speech included details of a blueprint designed to solve Hong Kong’s long-term housing and land shortage problems along with plans to promote future economic integration with Shenzhen and the Greater Bay Area. No direct initiatives related to commercial real estate were included in this year’s address.

Download the report for the key highlights and implication to real estate market.

本文原載於 https://www.cbre.com/