思想領導

• 2021 年第三季度的淨吸納量為-119,000 平方呎，這是自 2019 年年中開始的本輪市場下行週期以來，連續第八個季度出現負淨吸納量。這次下行週期是本市歷史上最長、最深的一次。.
• 然而，得益於新租賃量的上升，負淨吸納量的幅度較前幾個季度有所緩和。.
• 本季整體空置率上升，灣仔／銅鑼灣及港島東的壓力較為顯著。九龍東的空置率下降，大中環的空置率則維持穩定。.
• 雖然租賃需求仍然有限，但來自各行各業的租賃需求卻相當廣泛。大多數新租約涉及搬遷，也有幾個縮減規模的租約。中資企業仍相對冷清。.
• 較強的租賃動力確保了 2021 年第三季度的租金跌幅有所緩和，全市五個主要次級市場中有三個的租金環比跌幅小於 1%。預計未來 12 個月租金將進一步下滑。.

本文原載於 https://www.cbre.com/

整體吸納淨額在連續八個季度錄得負數後反彈至正值

商業活動、寫字樓租賃需求及租金的復甦，令 2021 年第三季的空置率表現進一步改善。整體淨吸納量回升至 70,900 平方呎，為 2019 年第三季以來首季錄得正數，令整體空置率降至 10.4%。租金修正持續放緩，整體租金每季微跌 0.3%，相較於第二季每季下跌 1.6%。.

閱讀最新的第三季寫字樓報告，了解該行業的表現，以及對業主和佔用人的建議。.

本文原載於 https://www.colliers.com/

亞太地區市場的投資活動強勁，為年底的強勁表現奠定基礎。.

由於流動資金充裕及限制放寬，投資者的興趣大增，支持亞太地產市場的強勁活動，為年底的強勁表現奠定基礎。.

亞太地區趨勢與報告重點：

• 澳洲 和 紐西蘭 隨著主要城市從長期的限制中走出來，投資者的樂觀情緒和商業信心重燃，尤其是辦公室市場。.
• 香港 由於經濟反彈有助於提振投資者的興趣，交易量錄得 20% 的季度成長。.
• 投資活動 中國 在中國主要市場的資產類別中，有超過 20 宗總值約人民幣 272 億元（42 億美元）的交易完成。.
• 新加坡‘零售業領導第三季的投資活動，總交易金額達 75 億新加坡元（55 億美元）。.
• 韓國‘受首爾辦公樓投資需求飆升的帶動，本季度辦公樓市場表現活躍。.
• 辦公樓、多戶住宅和物流業在 日本 在 REITs 價格回升至 COVID-19 前水平的情況下，持續吸引投資人的強勁需求。.

下載以下報告，瞭解更多專家對亞太地區投資者的建議。聯絡人 唐俊 和 John Marasco 了解更多亞太資本市場的主要趨勢和機遇。.

本文原載於 https://www.colliers.com/en-in/

Market softening continues

The rapid vaccine rollout, increasing corporate profits, and limited supply should give the market some much needed breathing room.

• The lukewarm market sentiment continued to weigh on office rents and vacancy in the central five wards (C5W) this quarter.
• Average Grade A office market rents in the C5W fell 2.2% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 8.2% year-on-year (YoY), and now stand at JPY34,370 per tsubo per month.
• The average Grade A office vacancy rate in the C5W increased by 0.8 percentage points (ppts) QoQ and 1.8ppts YoY to 2.5% in Q3/2021.
• Average large-scale Grade B office rents declined to JPY26,106 per tsubo per month – a contraction of 2.5% QoQ and 8.4% YoY.
• The average vacancy rate in the Grade B market loosened by 0.5ppts QoQ and 2.3ppts YoY to 3.3%.
• With the rapid vaccination rollout, strong corporate profit growth and limited supply until 2023, market sentiment should begin to stabilise or even improve.
• The poor performance of less accessible and older offices remains a drag on the office market overall. Meanwhile, tenant preferences for easily accessible and new offices persist.

本文原載於 https://www.savills.com.hk/

Downtrend in rents continues

Although rents have weakened, occupancy rates see a slow recovery.

• Rents in the Tokyo 23 wards (23W) fell by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 3.6% year-on-year (YoY) to JPY3,929 per sq m this quarter.
• Average mid-market rents in the central five wards (C5W) saw a small decline this quarter and are now at JPY4,661 per sq m – a fall of 0.2% QoQ and 3.6% YoY.
• The C5W premium has inched up to 17.9% – up 0.3 percentage points (ppts) from Q2/2021.
• In the C5W, average rents for units in the 15-30 sq m size band have again decreased this quarter. However, the 30-45 sq m size band saw a small increase in rents.
• The average occupancy rate in the 23W rose by 0.2ppts to 95.6%. The C5W saw a similar increment, increasing 0.2ppts to 94.5%.
• The C5W has seen a population decline, driven by younger families who appear to prefer larger units.

本文原載於 https://www.savills.com.hk/

Recovery remains elusive

In a broadly stable market, some signs of leasing activity were detected in Central, while F&B again proved to be the go-to sector for landlords.

• The market has been relatively stable over the third quarter with retail sentiment weak, while F&B has remained a rare bright spot.
• Dining-out or ‘eat-cations’ have become the ‘new holiday’ for locals, supporting the F&B sector across all price points.
• Leasing activity in core locations remains largely subdued except Central which continues to benefit from its reliance on high-end local demand.
• Rents in both the prime street shop and major shopping centre segments have stabilised and registered a QoQ growth rate of 0.4% and 1.2% respectively.

本文原載於 https://www.savills.com.hk/

Rental declines continue across the board

Rental declines were milder in Kowloon with vacancy gradually absorbed after the aggressive rental adjustments of late last year. 

• Grade A rents fell by 1.5% in Q3/2021 compared with a 2.6% decline in Q2/2021.
• The Central office market has been buffeted by the same headwinds as other markets, but despite this we have seen some selective expansion demand and new leases among Mainland financial institutions as well as new industry tenants.
• In the uncertain environment, serviced offices are popular, and we note more take-up from large operators in core business districts.
• Rental declines were milder in Kowloon with vacancy gradually absorbed, particularly in Tsim Sha Tsui and Kowloon East.
• Vacancy rates continued to climb to 9.3% in Q3 with office buildings in some areas, such as North Point and Kowloon West, suffering more than others.
• Upcoming supply in prime areas is seeing some early pre-commitment.
• As Central’s rental premium over the rest of the market narrows, decentralised rents may in turn come under pressure. Looking ahead, during a period of uncertain prospects and elevated supply, a lot will depend on demand from PRC firms over the next 12 to 24 months.

本文原載於 https://www.savills.com.hk/

Investors remain engaged

Logistics leasing activity levels revived in Q3 with operators opting to renewal in order to minimize business disruption, while those with expansion needs were looking for relocation options.

• The revival of the local trading and retail sectors has meant that many logistics operators were keen to renew leases to avoid business disruption, while those with expansion demand chose to relocate. 
• Overall and modern warehouse rents continued to rebound by 2.1% and 2.5% in Q3/2021 respectively, while both overall and modern warehouse vacancy rates fell to 3.2% and 2.6% over the same quarter, after a small spike last quarter.
• Investment sentiment continued to revive in Q3 with 17 major deals of over HK$100 million concluded worth a total of over HK$7.3 billion.  While investment funds were still keen on the high yield logistics sector, we note more participation from logistics operators (for eventual owner-occupation) and developers (for redevelopment).
• With local and global supply chains both expected to continue to rebound, short-term logistics demand seems to be sustainable. Nevertheless, a total of 7 million sq ft of new warehouse space is scheduled to come on stream over the next two years, so far with little pre-commitment, and this will test market resolve when it arrives in 2022 and 2023. 
• The robust investment sentiment for warehouse assets so far this year has already pushed prices up and yields down.  With Revitalization Policy 2.0 extended for another three years, we expect industrial investment to refocus more on run-down industrial premises with redevelopment potential.

本文原載於 https://www.savills.com.hk/

• 根據貿工部 (MTI) 的 2021 年第二季經濟調查，新加坡經濟在 2021 年第二季按年 (y-o-y) 成長 14.7%。經季節性調整後，2021 年第二季新加坡經濟實際收縮 1.8%，而 2021 年第一季則錄得 3.3%。.
• 製造業繼續帶動新加坡經濟復甦，半導體製造商和電子公司的分包商從全球晶片短缺中獲益。精密工程和電子產業分別錄得 24.3% 和 18.3% 的按年增長。運輸工程和化學產業分別錄得 29.6% 和 20.1% 的年成長率，但這些數字卻被運輸工程和化學產業的顯著成長所掩蓋，儘管這主要是由於 2020 年的低基數效應所致。.

本文原載於 https://www.knightfrank.com/

• Prices of non-landed private residential properties (excluding Executive Condominiums (ECs)) grew by a marginal 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q3 2021** to 159.6, with transactions in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) being the main contributor to the rise. The quarterly increase was moderated when compared to Q1 and Q2 2021, where the index grew by 2.5% and 1.1% respectively.
• There were 7,103 non-landed private homes (excluding ECs) transactions in Q3 2021*, a slight 1.4% decrease q-o-q. While both Q2 and Q3 2021 included periods where Singapore was in or reverted to Phase 2 (Heightened Alert), quarterly sales volume largely held up above a respectable 7,000 units. Especially when compared to an average of about 4,162 units during the pre-pandemic year of 2019*.

本文原載於 https://www.knightfrank.com/