思想領導

• Commercial real estate investment totalled HK$19.2 billion in Q3 2021, a decline of 31% q-o-q. However, the Q2 2021 total was skewed by one very large transaction.
• Industrial buildings remained keenly sought-after, with HK$7.9 billion-worth of industrial assets changing hands this quarter, the highest of any sector. Five of the ten largest deals completed in Q3 2021 involved industrial properties.
• The period saw stronger demand for office properties. While no en-bloc deals were signed, several office floors were transacted in both the CBD and in decentralised locations. Office capital values edged up by 0.3% q-o-q, their first quarterly growth since Q3 2018.
• In addition to transactions for street shops in neighbourhood areas, the quarter saw a few eye-catching sales in traditional retail districts.
• Local investors turned more active in Q3 2021, accounting for 32% of investment volume, the highest among all buyer categories.

本文原載於 https://www.cbre.com/

• The trade environment continues to strengthen. High freight forwarding costs mean traders are looking to utilise more warehouse space to protect margins.
• Ongoing power shortages in mainland China highlight the risk of weaker export growth, which could drag on logistics demand in the near term.
• While leasing demand remained strong in Q3 2021. reduced space availability led to a drop in leasing volume compared with the previous quarter.
• Retail and F&B-related occupiers drove demand, while tech and telecom firms were also observed to be seeking space.
• Retailers are expected to become more proactive in securing both retail and warehouse space in the coming months as fundamentals improve.
• A further decline in warehouse vacancy underpinned steady rental growth in Q3 2021.
• With space availability set to remain for longer, further rental growth in expected over the next 6-12 months.

本文原載於 https://www.cbre.com/

• The government’s introduction of consumption coupons underpinned stronger retail sales growth in August, reversing the trend of slower m-o-m growth witnessed since the start of the year.
• Leasing sentiment improved over the quarter, with demand being driven by casual wear, sporting goods and F&B retailers.
• Central saw several major commitments by a range of retail trades and for a variety of lease durations and purposes.
• The expiry of several short-term leases ensured overall vacancy edged up in Q3 2021.
• Both high street shop and shopping centre rents were stable over the quarter.
• While rents are expected to rise steadily in the coming months, a sharp uptick is not expected until luxury and other premium retailers resume expansion along high streets.
• Stronger rental growth will materialise in 2022 should cross-border travel normalise by early next year.

本文原載於 https://www.cbre.com/

• Net absorption stood at -119,000 sq. ft. in Q3 2021, the eighth consecutive quarter of negative net absorption since the current market downcycle commenced in mid-2019. This downcycle is now the longest and deepest in the city’s history.
• However, the magnitude of negative net absorption continued to moderate from previous quarters thanks to an uptick in new leasing volume.
• Overall vacancy increased over the quarter, with pressure more prominent in Wan Chai/Causeway Bay and Hong Kong East. Vacancy fell in Kowloon East and was stable in Greater Central.
• While still limited, leasing demand was broad based and from a range of industry sectors. Most new leases involved relocation, with several downsizing moves also observed. Chinese firms remained relatively quiet.
• Stronger leasing momentum ensured the rental decline moderated in Q3 2021, with three of the city’s five major submarkets seeing rents fall by less than 1% q-o-q. Rents are expected to edge down further over the next 12 months.

本文原載於 https://www.cbre.com/

Overall net absorption bounced back to positive after eight consecutive negative quarters

The revival of business activities, office leasing demand and rental rates has led to further improvement in vacancy performance in Q3 2021. Overall net absorption rebounded to 70,900 sq. ft., the first positive quarter since Q3 2019, taking the overall vacancy rate to 10.4%. Rental correction continued to decelerate and overall rent edged down by 0.3% QOQ, compared to the drop of 1.6% QOQ in Q2.

Read the latest Q3 office report to find out the sector’s performance and what the recommendations are for landlords and occupiers.

本文原載於 https://www.colliers.com/

Robust investment activity across APAC markets setting the stage for a strong year-end performance.

Investor interest, buoyed by ample liquidity and easing of restrictions, supported robust activity in Asia Pacific property markets, setting the stage for a strong year-end performance.

Regional trends and report highlights for Asia Pacific:

• 澳洲 和 紐西蘭 saw renewed investor optimism and business confidence, particularly in the office markets, as key cities emerge from prolonged restrictions.
• 香港 registered a 20% QOQ growth in transaction volumes, as economic rebound helped boost investor appetite.
• Investment activity in 中國 picked up, with more than 20 transactions totalling approx. RMB27.2 billion (USD4.2 billion) closed across asset classes in major Chinese markets.
• 新加坡‘s retail sector led investment activity in Q3, with total transactions worth SGD7.5 billion (USD5.5 billion) registered.
• 韓國‘s office market saw an active quarter, driven by soaring investment demand for office space in Seoul.
• The office, multifamily and logistics sectors in 日本 continued to attract robust investor demand, amidst REITs prices recovering to pre-COVID-19 levels.

Download the report below to find out more expert recommendations for investors across Asia Pacific. Contact 唐俊 和 John Marasco for more key trends and opportunities across Asia Pacific capital markets.

本文原載於 https://www.colliers.com/en-in/

Market softening continues

The rapid vaccine rollout, increasing corporate profits, and limited supply should give the market some much needed breathing room.

• The lukewarm market sentiment continued to weigh on office rents and vacancy in the central five wards (C5W) this quarter.
• Average Grade A office market rents in the C5W fell 2.2% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 8.2% year-on-year (YoY), and now stand at JPY34,370 per tsubo per month.
• The average Grade A office vacancy rate in the C5W increased by 0.8 percentage points (ppts) QoQ and 1.8ppts YoY to 2.5% in Q3/2021.
• Average large-scale Grade B office rents declined to JPY26,106 per tsubo per month – a contraction of 2.5% QoQ and 8.4% YoY.
• The average vacancy rate in the Grade B market loosened by 0.5ppts QoQ and 2.3ppts YoY to 3.3%.
• With the rapid vaccination rollout, strong corporate profit growth and limited supply until 2023, market sentiment should begin to stabilise or even improve.
• The poor performance of less accessible and older offices remains a drag on the office market overall. Meanwhile, tenant preferences for easily accessible and new offices persist.

本文原載於 https://www.savills.com.hk/

Downtrend in rents continues

Although rents have weakened, occupancy rates see a slow recovery.

• Rents in the Tokyo 23 wards (23W) fell by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 3.6% year-on-year (YoY) to JPY3,929 per sq m this quarter.
• Average mid-market rents in the central five wards (C5W) saw a small decline this quarter and are now at JPY4,661 per sq m – a fall of 0.2% QoQ and 3.6% YoY.
• The C5W premium has inched up to 17.9% – up 0.3 percentage points (ppts) from Q2/2021.
• In the C5W, average rents for units in the 15-30 sq m size band have again decreased this quarter. However, the 30-45 sq m size band saw a small increase in rents.
• The average occupancy rate in the 23W rose by 0.2ppts to 95.6%. The C5W saw a similar increment, increasing 0.2ppts to 94.5%.
• The C5W has seen a population decline, driven by younger families who appear to prefer larger units.

本文原載於 https://www.savills.com.hk/

Recovery remains elusive

In a broadly stable market, some signs of leasing activity were detected in Central, while F&B again proved to be the go-to sector for landlords.

• The market has been relatively stable over the third quarter with retail sentiment weak, while F&B has remained a rare bright spot.
• Dining-out or ‘eat-cations’ have become the ‘new holiday’ for locals, supporting the F&B sector across all price points.
• Leasing activity in core locations remains largely subdued except Central which continues to benefit from its reliance on high-end local demand.
• Rents in both the prime street shop and major shopping centre segments have stabilised and registered a QoQ growth rate of 0.4% and 1.2% respectively.

本文原載於 https://www.savills.com.hk/

Rental declines continue across the board

Rental declines were milder in Kowloon with vacancy gradually absorbed after the aggressive rental adjustments of late last year. 

• Grade A rents fell by 1.5% in Q3/2021 compared with a 2.6% decline in Q2/2021.
• The Central office market has been buffeted by the same headwinds as other markets, but despite this we have seen some selective expansion demand and new leases among Mainland financial institutions as well as new industry tenants.
• In the uncertain environment, serviced offices are popular, and we note more take-up from large operators in core business districts.
• Rental declines were milder in Kowloon with vacancy gradually absorbed, particularly in Tsim Sha Tsui and Kowloon East.
• Vacancy rates continued to climb to 9.3% in Q3 with office buildings in some areas, such as North Point and Kowloon West, suffering more than others.
• Upcoming supply in prime areas is seeing some early pre-commitment.
• As Central’s rental premium over the rest of the market narrows, decentralised rents may in turn come under pressure. Looking ahead, during a period of uncertain prospects and elevated supply, a lot will depend on demand from PRC firms over the next 12 to 24 months.

本文原載於 https://www.savills.com.hk/