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Rates set the direction, not fundamentals. Leasing is strong and supply is tight across the region, but neither re-rates the sector while the regional rate path stays hostage to oil and therefore to the Gulf. The August 7th US payroll print (-23,000, with 103,000 of downward revisions and average hourly earnings at 3.2% YoY, the softest since May 2021) cut September hike pricing to 42-44% and pushed the risk to October. Core CPI is stable at 2.6% and justifies a hold.

Japan. Results are done and mixed. Mitsui Fudosan’s 1Q fall was pre-guided, with every greater-Tokyo renewal this fiscal year settled at a higher rent. Tokyo Tatemono beat and raised to record guidance on a JPY 26.1bn property sales gain, but residential operating profit fell 83.2%, which undercuts the argument that condominiums are unaffected by higher rates. Central-five-ward asking rents have accelerated to +11.4% YoY from +5.5% in December 2025. The constraint is the BOJ at 1.00%; consensus sees 1.25% by December and we would not be surprised by September. Sankei Building first-round bids near JPY 1tn against a JPY 500-800bn expectation argue against cap rate softening.

Australia. Guidance is the risk into full-year reporting, not results. Stockland and Mirvac have corrected on residential and EV/EBITDA is back to just above 2022 trough levels, but hedge ratios are higher than in 2022 and in-place debt costs are already high, so we do not expect material deterioration.

Hong Kong. Mid-market residential is supported by end-user demand while luxury continues to suffer. Capital returns are the theme: Wharf REIC lifted its payout ratio to 90% and the stock closed up 13.7%, Link has committed disposal proceeds to buybacks, and we have written to Fortune REIT urging the same treatment of Stars of Kovan proceeds.

Singapore. A non-event, with CICT on August 12th the last major report. Paragon at a 3.9% entry yield against Asia Square Tower 2 at 3.0% lifts pro forma FY25 DPU 2.1%.

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India’s renewable energy sector has witnessed unprecedented growth over the past decade, driven by ambitious policy reforms, declining technology costs, and strong investor participation. With installed renewable energy capacity expanding rapidly and the country targeting 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030, the sector is expected to require investments exceeding USD 190-215 bn over the remainder of the decade. While traditional funding sources such as project debt, private equity, strategic investments, and foreign direct investment have played a pivotal role in supporting this growth, sustaining the next phase of expansion will require more efficient mechanisms for capital recycling.

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主要心得

  • A total of 22,290 rental contracts of island-wide private residential properties (excluding ECs) commenced during the quarter, up 5.1% from the 21,203 contracts recorded in the previous quarter.
  • The URA rental index for non-landed private residential properties rose 0.4% QoQ.
  • Based on Savills basket of high-end non-landed residential properties, the average monthly rent continued its upward trajectory, rising by 1.4% QoQ.
  • Despite limited new completions, the overall vacancy rate of completed private residential properties (excluding ECs) rose to 6.4% in Q2/2026.
  • While Singapore’s economic growth in 2026 is expected to outperform the official 2% to 4% forecast, the benefits to the residential leasing market may be limited. Mixed free cash flow trends among MNCs could restrain expatriate deployment overseas, while the removal of the 15-month wait-out period for private homeowners moving to HDB flats may reduce domestic leasing demand. Accordingly, we maintain our view that private residential rents will remain broadly flat in 2026.
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The global data centre sector has emerged from a pivotal year in digital infrastructure, underpinned by continuous cloud migration and digitisation, combined with the proliferation of artificial intelligence, super-charging demand for data centre infrastructure. Across the globe, real estate transaction volumes, comprising single-asset-sales and development site acquisitions, totalled $16.5 billion in 2025 with development site acquisition volumes in particular surging 12.4% on 2024 volumes, the highest annual investment tally to date. Similarly, Knight Frank’s bespoke data centre appraisals valued the global stabilised data centre market at $1.95 trillion, a 39.3% increase on 2024. Looking ahead, 48GW is expected to be delivered between 2026 and 2029, representing a 77% increase in global supply volumes. Within this, AI supply volumes are set to expand from 8GW to 27GW, growing to 24.5% of total live IT.

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重點總結

  • Living sectors are going mainstream: Institutional capital is increasingly flowing into co-living, BTR, student accommodation and senior housing across APAC.
  • Significant growth runway remains: APAC accounts for around 60% of the world’s population but attracted only 12% of global living-sector capital in 2025, highlighting a substantial allocation gap.
  • Demand continues to outpace supply: Major markets across the region face shortages of professionally managed rental housing, creating long-term opportunities for investors.
  • Market-specific opportunities are emerging: The report highlights strong growth potential in Singapore co-living, Australia BTR, Hong Kong student housing and India’s rapidly expanding PBSA sector.
  • Operational expertise is becoming a key differentiator: Investors are increasingly combining capital with local partnerships, platform strategies and operating capabilities to create scale and drive performance.
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主要心得

  • Strong demand for premium office space, coupled with the limited supply of new office developments, has led to a two-tier leasing market. While premium office buildings continue to enjoy healthy occupancy levels and rental growth, lower-quality buildings face greater challenges in attracting and retaining tenants
  • Based on data compiled by Savills, the vacancy rate for CBD Grade A offices declined for the third consecutive quarter by 1.0 percentage point (ppt) quarteron-quarter (QoQ) to 5.6% in Q2/2026. This was the lowest since Q3/2022 when vacancy rate was at 5.2%.
  • With vacancy rates remaining tight, particularly in premium grade office buildings, and with limited upcoming supply, landlords have maintained a firm stance on both asking and renewal rents. This has led to average CBD Grade A office rents to increase further by 2.8% QoQ to S$10.42 per sq ft in the quarter.
  • Barring a significant deterioration in the political-economic sphere, even a marginal increase in office demand could result in disproportionately strong rental growth given the current supply constraints. Accordingly, we are revising our 2026 rental growth forecast upward from 3%–5% to 5%, while projecting a further 5%–7% year-on-year (YoY) increase in 2027.
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India’s real estate market is broadening beyond office leasing, with economic growth, digitalisation, manufacturing, and infrastructure investment supporting sustained institutional interest across logistics, data centres, industrial parks, retail, and residential assets.

Record demand from Global Capability Centres (GCCs) is reshaping office requirements, driving occupiers toward high-quality, technology-enabled campuses and reinforcing demand for institutional-grade properties.

India’s REIT market is also maturing, where investors are placing greater emphasis on governance, asset quality, and capital allocation. Overall, resilient occupier demand, expanding domestic capital pools, and selective institutional investment continue to support a constructive long-term outlook for India’s real assets market.

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KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Living has been APAC’s most resilient real estate sector in recent years
  • It was the only sector to record investment volume growth during both the COVID-19 pandemic and the global rate-hiking cycle, at 51% and 18%, respectively.
  • Rental growth has also consistently outpaced both inflation and interest rates, preserving real income while maintaining a positive spread over financing costs.
  • Together, these characteristics reinforce APAC living as a compelling, income-oriented allocation within a diversified real estate portfolio.
  1. Structural demand is no longer the differentiator, execution is
  • Demographic shifts in APAC, particularly shrinking household sizes, the growth of single-person households, continued urbanisation and cross-border mobility, are increasing demand for housing and heightening affordability pressures.
  • This is unfolding alongside persistent housing shortages and elevated homeownership barriers, further shifting demand towards rental solutions.
  • Government policy has emerged as a key growth catalyst, boosting demand through immigration and labour mobility while creating a more supportive environment for institutional rental housing through planning and regulatory reforms.
  • The combination of policy-supported population growth and persistent housing supply strengthens demand visibility, supports high occupancy and creates favourable conditions for sustainable rental growth and long-term income resilience.
  • Demographic tailwinds and policy reforms underpin demand and expand the investable universe, but excess returns will increasingly depend on how investors enter, operate and scale assets.
  1. There is no single APAC living strategy
  • While the APAC living opportunity set is expanding, it is not a homogeneous asset class. Each market-subsector follows a different institutionalisation path, offering distinct risk-return profiles and entry strategies.
  • 在 日本, direct acquisition of stabilised multifamily assets remains the dominant strategy given the market’s established depth and liquidity.
  • Australia’s PBSA and coliving sectors feature a mix of ground-up development and conversion opportunities.
  • 在 新加坡, entry strategy into the coliving sector largely revolves around adaptive reuse and conversion of existing assets.
  • 香港 PBSA is likely the most conversion-led living market in APAC, driven by policy reforms.
  • 韓國’s living market is in an early stage of institutionalisation, creating opportunities for investors to establish operating capabilities and sourcing networks ahead of broader market development.
  1. Operational capability and scale are becoming core sources of alpha
  • Revenue management, product positioning, active asset management and local expertise are increasingly driving performance.
  • Regional platforms can enhance sourcing, standardise design and procurement, optimise pricing and operations, and create multiple capital recycling and exit pathways.
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Knight Frank’s ultimate guide to real estate market performance and opportunities in the world’s most promising economy.

H1 2026 opened against a broadly supportive macroeconomic backdrop, though conditions grew more complex as the period progressed. The Reserve Bank of India’s repo rate stood at 5.25% through H1 2026, reflecting a cumulative 125 basis points of easing since the start of the rate-cutting cycle. With the last reduction having taken effect in December 2025, the Monetary Policy Committee held at both its February and June 2026 meetings, citing West Asia conflict-related energy risks and a potentially deficient monsoon. FY 2026 GDP growth was estimated at 7.6%, affirming underlying domestic resilience. However, the RBI revised its FY 2027 GDP growth projection to 6.6% and raised its FY 2027 CPI inflation forecast to 5.1%, reflecting uncertainty around energy prices and food supply conditions. For the residential market, cumulative rate easing continues to support home loan affordability, but with further cuts on hold and global uncertainties mounting, the monetary tailwind that sustained demand through 2025 has largely run its course.

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Asian Real Estate Securities — July 2026 Outlook

Asian real estate securities are seeing a modest bounce at the start of July, supported by falling oil prices, softer US labor data, and some rotation away from outperforming technology and semiconductor stocks. Start-of-second-half portfolio rebalancing may also provide technical support for neglected sectors such as real estate. The key question is whether lower crude prices and weaker US jobs data are enough to shift fixed-income sentiment and reduce concern that the Fed’s next move could be further tightening. Central banks remain data dependent, but a less hawkish shift would be the clearest catalyst for a more sustained recovery in Asian REITs and real estate equities.

  • 日本： the long-awaited sale of Fuji Media’s real estate business should be a positive catalyst given its scale and pricing. Developers and J-REITs have been weak since Q1 as JGB yields rose, but transaction markets remain strong and J-REIT valuations have drifted back to around 0.85x P/NAV. We expect asset sales and unit repurchases to continue and potentially accelerate. The BOJ meets July 30-31 and is expected to hold after raising short-term rates to 1% in June, with further hikes more likely in Q4 or next year.
  • 澳洲： we remain very constructive following the share price correction that began in late 2025 as rate-cut expectations reversed into three RBA hikes. Consensus may again be too hawkish, and a long pause now appears more likely as housing softens and the labor market slows. August results will be important, particularly 2027 guidance. The key issue is top-line growth, where we are optimistic on retail, industrial, and CBD office in Sydney and Brisbane. Residential earnings remain under pressure, but valuations appear to discount weaker 2027 volumes.
  • 香港： real estate securities have corrected sharply over the past two months after strong prior outperformance. Near-term catalysts are limited, and tighter scrutiny of Chinese outbound direct investment remains an overhang for residential demand, with property launches already slowing. A drop in HIBOR would help, but that would likely require Fed easing, which is not the current base case. Central office rents and luxury retail trends continue to improve, which should support landlords with exposure to Central office and high-end retail.
  • 新加坡： we do not expect a major near-term catalyst for the S-REIT sector. Rates remain low but have crept higher, with 3-month SORA rising to 1.10% from its April low of 1.01%. Overall conditions remain supportive, but S-REITs are still range-bound due to a lack of fresh catalysts and limited rotational buying from generalist investors, who continue to favor financials over REITs.
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