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From Q4 2020 to 2024, some 53.8 million sq ft gross floor area (GFA) of industrial space is slated to be completed. Of these, about 43.2% of the upcoming supply is expected to be completed in 2021, with a significant proportion being multiple-user and single-user factory spaces. Coupled with the phased withdrawal of government fiscal support for businesses, multipleuser factory prices and rents are likely to come under pressure, falling by not more than 5% in 2021 while single-user factories could fare slightly better.

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  • The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly accelerated a number of secular shifts that were already starting to have fundamental impacts on the role real estate plays in the economy as well as in investment portfolios.
  • Such disruption increases the need for evolving data and analytics to understand the rapidly changing drivers of performance and risk consistently across all types of real estate investments.
  • Despite a long list of difficult questions facing the asset class, climate change and its impact on risk and return are more important than ever for real estate investors.

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HEALTHY TRANSACTION VOLUME AND MODERATE PRICE INCREASE IN A PANDEMIC YEAR

  • Prices of non-landed private residential properties (excluding Executive Condominiums (ECs)) in Q4 2020** saw the greatest quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) increase of 3.2% for 2020, bringing the full-year increase to 2.7% despite the economic turbulence.
  • In 2020*, non-landed private residential sales volume (excluding ECs) totalled 17,830 units, 4.7% more than in 2019 and a surprisingly good showing in a year of crisis. Strong support from needs-based buyers and eligible HDB upgraders combined to form healthy demand, bolstering sentiment despite economic uncertainty and restrictions on the re-issuance of OTPs.
  • There were 9,497 transactions in the primary market accounting for some 53.3% of total sales in 2020*, as developers pushed out new launches amid encouraging sales after Singapore exited the circuit breaker. While the secondary market was slower to regain momentum and trailed with 8,333 sales, sales caught up to some extent with some 2,904 units transacted in Q4* and 2,922 in Q3, more than three times the 760 units in Q2 2020 (Exhibit 1). The practicality of resale units due to its price discount, when compared to new sale units, and the greater choices available will continue to encourage sales.
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新加坡的租賃條款通常對房東有利。如果您租的面積不大，議價能力可能有限，因此您應該專注於對您而言重要的方面。在尋找合適的房產時，請記住，不同的房產用途各不相同。如果您需要辦公場所，則不能租用工業用地作為辦公室用途。.

如今，共享辦公空間或服務式辦公室隨處可見。從法律角度講，此類空間的使用安排屬於許可而非租賃，因為使用者並未獲得辦公室的獨佔使用權。.

找到心儀的租賃房產後，應進行產權調查，以核實房產的所有權和出租人的權利。如果房產由出租人以租賃方式持有，則應提取租賃合同，查看是否需要主出租人的同意才能轉租。如果房產設有抵押貸款，則應要求出租人提供銀行同意轉租的證明，因為抵押貸款通常包含禁止轉租的條款。如果未獲得銀行的同意，且銀行收回了房產，則銀行不受抵押貸款後簽訂的未經其同意的租賃合約的約束。.

對於尚未獲得臨時佔用許可證的新建房屋，租賃生效日期通常會有所變更。如果您無法繼續居住在現有房屋內，請在簽訂此類租賃協議前仔細考慮延誤的風險。收房時，請與房東共同進行房屋檢查，拍照記錄房屋缺陷，並由雙方確認房屋的狀況，以避免在歸還房屋時產生糾紛。.

如果集團內多家公司將共用辦公場所，則需確定哪家公司作為承租方。租金通常需繳納商品及服務稅 (GST)，因此承租方應盡可能進行 GST 註冊。由於多數租約都包含禁止轉租或合租的條款，因此，如需在集團內進行此類轉租或合租，應事先徵得出租方的同意。.

除了租金外，商業房東通常還會收取物業維護費。對於零售物業，可能還會收取廣告和促銷費用。這些費用可能會有所變動。房東通常會將一些其他費用，例如水電費和房產稅上漲部分轉嫁給租戶。許多房東也會將準備租賃合約的法律費用或行政費用轉嫁給租戶。如果租戶需要修改房東的標準租賃合同，則可能還會產生額外的法律費用。租賃印花稅通常由租戶負擔。.

租戶需繳納的押金金額通常取決於其已繳資本。如果租戶的已繳資本較低，房東通常會要求更高的押金。押金可以現金支付，也可以經房東同意後以銀行擔保支付。以銀行擔保支付押金的好處在於，即使房東破產，押金也能得到保障。.

租戶可能希望向房東申請一些優惠條件以簽訂租賃協議，例如免租期用於裝修房屋，如果房東同意，甚至可以在整個租賃期內免租。如果租戶違約，租賃協議通常會規定房東有權收回已給予租戶的免租期。.

業主可依物業面積分配一定數量的停車位。通常情況下，這些車位不設預留，並以現行停車收費標準收取費用。規模較大的租戶可能希望在租賃合約中加入有利條款，例如冠名權、標牌權、優先購買權或排除競爭對手入駐的權利。.

仔細閱讀租賃合同，並注意您的義務。通常情況下，裝修需要事先獲得房東的書面同意。商業房東通常會保留在建築物或其部分進行重建或翻新時終止租約的權利。如果您在裝修上投入了大量資金，您可以嘗試與房東協商，爭取在初始租期內取消其終止合約的權利，以便收回已投入的裝修費用。.

如果租戶使用團體保險，則應修改租賃協議中的保險條款，將房東列為附加被保險人而非共同被保險人。出於保密原因，租戶可能只想向房東提供保險證明，而不是保單正本。.

商業租賃合約通常也會規定房東免責，並要求租戶在各種情況下賠償房東的損失。您也應採取必要的保護措施，確保擁有足夠的保險保障。此外，鑑於新冠疫情以及未來可能發生的全球大流行，建議您在租賃合約中加入「不可抗力」條款；如果該條款的適用範圍足夠廣泛，則應允許終止租賃，因為此類條款幾乎總是被商業租賃合約所忽略。.

如果租戶拖欠租金或違反租賃條款，租賃合約通常會賦予房東收回房屋的權利。在這種情況下，房東應盡量尋找其他房客以減少損失。.

如果您希望在初始租期結束後繼續租住該房屋，您可以要求續租選擇權。如果租金或續租條款由房東規定或由雙方協商確定，而您未能就續租條款達成協議，您可能無法強制房東同意續租。對於租期較長的房屋，房東可能會同意採用估值機制，以便更客觀地確定續租期的租金。.

請注意您在租賃期滿時的恢復原狀義務，並確保您能夠在租賃期滿時將房屋歸還給房東，以避免因延遲歸還房屋而承擔雙倍租金的責任。.

值得注意的是，目前正在討論一項公平租賃框架，該框架很可能在未來幾個月內獲得通過，這肯定會影響談判各方的議價能力，特別是限制房東的權力。.

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Five new high-profile retail projects completed in Q4: Wanda Plaza in Yanqing District, Joy Breeze in Daxing District, Beijing Fun Capital Wanda Plaza in Changping District, Beijing Shuangqiao Wanda Plaza, and Beiyuan Huamao Place (West Zone) in Chaoyang District. They added a combined 506,452 sq m of space, bringing total shopping mall supply to 12.6 million sq m, accounting for 87% of the city’s retail stock. The market continued to recover from the impacts of the pandemic in 2H, supported by initiatives from the government, developers and brands. A government-issued shopping voucher campaign, launched in June, together with shopping season promotions, have been key drivers in reviving consumer activity. New store openings rose significantly, led by F&B and fashion sectors, with several fashion brand first stores in the preferred Sanlitun and CBD submarkets. High-end sports brand Descente opened China’s first Descente Blanc flagship store at Takoo Li in Sanlitun, while Kilian launched a Beijing first store at Beijing SKP in the CBD. In Q4 Zara opened the doors to a new Asia flagship store, a four-storey standalone building in Wangfujing submarket of more than 3,500 sq m.

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The Beijing office market is set for approximately 3 17 million sq m of new supply in the next three years, of which up to 1 5 million sq m is due in 2021 Under the weight of the supply influx and ongoing global economic headwinds, we expect overall office vacancy to continue to edge up and for rental levels to face downwards pressure However, in the longer term, as the wave of new supply abates and benefits from the expansion and opening up of the services industry and development of the Beijing Free Trade Zone are gradually realized, we expect to see renewed leasing demand in related financial and high tech industries, and further development opportunities for the Beijing office market.

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概述

在 2020 年的最後一個月，有利的全球發展趨勢使金融市場進入風險上漲模式。冠狀病毒疫苗普及的前景、美國兩黨就財政刺激措施達成協議，以及歐盟與英國就脫歐後貿易協議達成協議，均為市場情緒提供必要的刺激，令房地產股持續以正面跡象收市。然而，就 2020 年全年而言，房地產股持續落後於受科技股及製藥股支撐的股市。房地產週期最終會走出危機，儘管歷史上房地產週期會滯後於經濟復甦，但在區內持久的結構性基本因素支持下，房地產週期將會更加長久。.

overview

在 2020 年的最後一個月，有利的全球發展趨勢使金融市場進入風險上漲模式。冠狀病毒疫苗普及的前景、美國兩黨就財政刺激措施達成協議，以及歐盟與英國就脫歐後貿易協議達成協議，均為市場情緒提供必要的刺激，令房地產股持續以正面跡象收市。然而，就 2020 年全年而言，房地產股持續落後於受科技股及製藥股支撐的股市。房地產週期最終會走出危機，儘管歷史上房地產週期會滯後於經濟復甦，但在區內持久的結構性基本因素支持下，房地產週期將會更加長久。.

上市房地產

GPR/APREA 上市房地產綜合指數於 12 月份的回報率為 1.6%，表現遜於區內股票及房地產投資信託 市場，原因是中國內地及香港的不景氣表現拖累該行業。在區內的重磅股中，中國及香港的房地產股按年跌幅最大，原因是政策風險擴大了對估值的拖累。除了對發展商實施所謂的「三條紅線」限制外，內地監管機構進一步限制銀行對房地產行業的貸款，包括遏抑按揭貸款，這無意間抑制了置業意欲。.

房地產投資信託基金

相比之下，GPR/APREA 綜合房地產投資信託基金指數所追蹤的亞太區房地產投資信託基金，在 12 月廣泛上揚，升幅超過 5%。不過，這仍無法讓亞太地區的 REITs 在 2020 年進入成長領域。.

值得注意的是，高風險分部的輪動推動零售業在 12 月上升 6.5%。按年計算，酒店房地產投資信託基金萎縮幅度最大，2020 年全年下跌 21.1%。這與工業類的強勁表現形成對比，由於投資者在物流和數位資產中尋求安全性，工業類在同期錄得超過 20% 的升幅。.

12 月份，各國股市普遍上揚，只有泰國例外，因為感染率回升壓抑了市場氣氛。儘管也出現類似的病例激增情況，日本的房地產投資信託基金（J-REITs）仍能締造收益。日本政府在 12 月宣佈了總金額達 73.6 兆日圓的新刺激經濟措施，顯示政府有決心擺脫冠狀病毒危機造成的經濟低迷。在此之前的兩項方案預算已超過 200 兆日圓。.

與此同時，南韓正逐漸成為該地區房地產投資信託基金的增長催化劑。ESR Cayman Limited 宣佈 ESR Kendall Square 房地產投資信託基金於 2020 年 12 月 23 日成功在 KOSPI 證券交易所上市，標誌著南韓首個以機構優質物流資產為重點的房地產投資信託基金公開上市。.

隨著 GPR/APREA 指數系列的最新季度調整，新增了 11 家房地產投資信託基金，包括首次在印度和菲律賓交易所上市的公司。工業板塊的代表性也有所擴大。.

展望

預期貨幣政策將維持寬鬆，以支持因大流行病而疲弱的經濟活動。這在歷史上助長了房地產投資信託基金的估值。隨著全球持續推出疫苗，預期該地區的零售與辦公產業將有更大的上漲潛力，同時邊境也有可能重新開放。然而，變種病毒的出現為不確定性增添了新的動力，可能會抑制預期。這將繼續助長作為投資組合對沖工具的「抗大流行」工業房地產投資信託基金的收益。.

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Investors seeking yield will turn further toward real estate assets, while funds promising higher returns will be pushed up the risk curve

Lower for longer. Almost the entire way through the post-Global Financial Crisis economic cycle, interest rate calls have been revised downwards, or expectations of higher interest rates pushed well into the future. With COVID-19, that future looks even further away, if – a big if, given the liquidity pumped into the system – inflation is kept in check.

What does this mean for real estate? Preqin’s Future of Alternatives forecast is that private real estate assets under management (AUM) will grow from $1.05tn in 2020 to $1.24tn in 2025 (Fig. 1). While lower than our CAGR forecast of 9.8% for all alternative AUM, the real estate AUM growth of 3.4% per year should be viewed in the context of a market hit by what will likely be a period of demand uncertainty for its two largest asset classes: retail and offices.

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While office rents continued to drop in the downbeat market, tenants seized the opportunity for better relocation options, resulting in high activity in the leasing market during the month. However, landlords further softened their approach and adopted a more realistic stance in negotiating leasing terms to secure tenants, so the majority of tenants tended to renew their leases. As a result, new take-up of Grade-A office space was at an exceptional low level during the month, particularly in the CBD area.

Amid the challenging economic environment,

While office rents continued to drop in the downbeat market, tenants seized the opportunity for better relocation options, resulting in high activity in the leasing market during the month. However, landlords further softened their approach and adopted a more realistic stance in negotiating leasing terms to secure tenants, so the majority of tenants tended to renew their leases. As a result, new take-up of Grade-A office space was at an exceptional low level during the month, particularly in the CBD area.

Amid the challenging economic environment, cost-competitiveness remains a pressing consideration for tenants. Going into 2021, we therefore expect to see a continuing decentralisation trend. We also foresee rising demand for co-working space, as more companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which have been heavily impacted by the coronavirus-induced recession to actively explore flexible leasing options.

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