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From Q4 2020 to 2024, some 53.8 million sq ft gross floor area (GFA) of industrial space is slated to be completed. Of these, about 43.2% of the upcoming supply is expected to be completed in 2021, with a significant proportion being multiple-user and single-user factory spaces. Coupled with the phased withdrawal of government fiscal support for businesses, multipleuser factory prices and rents are likely to come under pressure, falling by not more than 5% in 2021 while single-user factories could fare slightly better.

  • The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly accelerated a number of secular shifts that were already starting to have fundamental impacts on the role real estate plays in the economy as well as in investment portfolios.
  • Such disruption increases the need for evolving data and analytics to understand the rapidly changing drivers of performance and risk consistently across all types of real estate investments.
  • Despite a long list of difficult questions facing the asset class, climate change and its impact on risk and return are more important than ever for real estate investors.

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HEALTHY TRANSACTION VOLUME AND MODERATE PRICE INCREASE IN A PANDEMIC YEAR

  • Prices of non-landed private residential properties (excluding Executive Condominiums (ECs)) in Q4 2020** saw the greatest quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) increase of 3.2% for 2020, bringing the full-year increase to 2.7% despite the economic turbulence.
  • In 2020*, non-landed private residential sales volume (excluding ECs) totalled 17,830 units, 4.7% more than in 2019 and a surprisingly good showing in a year of crisis. Strong support from needs-based buyers and eligible HDB upgraders combined to form healthy demand, bolstering sentiment despite economic uncertainty and restrictions on the re-issuance of OTPs.
  • There were 9,497 transactions in the primary market accounting for some 53.3% of total sales in 2020*, as developers pushed out new launches amid encouraging sales after Singapore exited the circuit breaker. While the secondary market was slower to regain momentum and trailed with 8,333 sales, sales caught up to some extent with some 2,904 units transacted in Q4* and 2,922 in Q3, more than three times the 760 units in Q2 2020 (Exhibit 1). The practicality of resale units due to its price discount, when compared to new sale units, and the greater choices available will continue to encourage sales.

LEASE terms in Singapore tend to be pro-landlord. If you are not renting a large area, your bargaining power may be limited and you should focus on aspects that are important to you. In finding a suitable property, bear in mind that different properties are approved for different uses. If you require office premises, it is not permissible to rent industrial premises for office use.

These days, it is common to find co-working space or serviced offices. Technically, the legal arrangement for use of such spaces is considered a licence rather than a lease as no exclusive possession of the premises is provided to the user.

When you have found premises that you wish to rent, a title search should be conducted on the property to verify the ownership and right of the landlord to lease the property. If the property is held by the landlord under a lease, the lease should be extracted to check whether the head lessor’s consent is required for subletting. If the property is subject to mortgage, the landlord should be requested to provide evidence of the bank’s consent as mortgages normally contain a restriction against subletting. If the bank’s consent is not obtained, and the bank takes possession of the property, the bank would not be bound by a tenancy entered into after the mortgage which the bank has not consented to.

For new buildings where the temporary occupation permit has not been issued, the commencement date of the lease would normally be subject to change. If you do not have any leeway for staying on in your existing premises, consider the risk of delay carefully before entering into such tenancies. On taking possession, have a joint inspection with the landlord to note down defects with photographic record and have both parties acknowledge the state and condition to avoid disputes at the time of return of the premises.

Where the premises are to be occupied by more than one company within the group, decide which entity is to be the tenant. Rent would normally be subject to Goods and Services Tax (GST) so the tenant entity should be GST-registered, if practicable. As most tenancies would contain a restriction against subletting or sharing of premises, the landlord’s consent should be obtained upfront for such subletting or sharing of premises within the group.

Besides rent, commercial landlords often charge a service charge for the maintenance of the building. For retail premises, there may also be advertising and promotion contributions. These amounts are subject to change. Landlords often pass some other charges such as utilities charges, and increase in property tax to the tenant. Many landlords pass their legal cost or administrative charges for preparation of the lease to the tenant. If the tenant requires amendments to the landlord’s standard lease format, there may also be additional legal costs for the amendments. Stamp duty on the tenancy is invariably borne by the tenant.

The amount of security deposit to be provided by the tenant would normally be based on the tenant’s paid-up capital. Where the tenant’s paid-up capital is low, the landlord would usually require a higher security deposit. The security deposit can be paid by cash or where the landlord agrees, by bank guarantee. A benefit of providing the security deposit by bank guarantee is that it is protected against insolvency of the landlord.

Tenants may wish to request the landlord for incentives to enter into the tenancy such as rent-free period for fitting out the premises and, if the landlord would agree, during the lease term. In the event that the tenant breaks the lease, the tenancy agreement would normally provide that the landlord may claw back the rent-free period granted to the tenant.

Landlords may allot a certain number of car park lots based on area of the premises. Often, these lots are granted on a non-reserved basis at prevailing car park charges. Larger tenants may wish to consider adding favourable clauses which cover naming rights, signage rights, first rights of refusal to purchase or exclusion of competitors in the building.

Read the lease carefully and note your obligations. Normally, renovations would require the landlord’s prior written consent. It is common for commercial landlords to reserve a right to terminate the lease in the event of redevelopment or renovation of the building or part of the building. If you are spending large amounts on renovations, you may wish to try to negotiate out the landlord’s right to terminate for the initial term so that you may recoup your renovation cost spent.

Where the tenant uses group insurance, the insurance clause of the tenancy agreement should be modified to provide for the landlord to be named as additional insured rather than joint insured. The tenant may only want to provide certificate of insurance, rather than the actual policy to the landlord for confidentiality reasons.

Commercial leases also often provide for exclusion of liability of the landlord and for the tenant to indemnify the landlord in various circumstances. Take your own protective measures and ensure that you have adequate insurance protection. Additionally, in view of the COVID-19 event and possible future pandemic, it is advisable to add the “force majeure” provisions; allowing termination if the ambit is sufficiently wide as such provisions are almost invariably omitted from commercial leases.

In the event of non-payment of rent or breach of lease terms by the tenant, the lease would normally provide for a right of re-entry by the landlord. In such an event, the landlord should try to mitigate its loss by seeking another tenant.

If you wish to stay on in the premises after the initial term, you may want to ask for an option to renew. Where rent or terms for renewal lease are to be stipulated by the landlord or agreed between the parties, you may not be able to compel the landlord to grant the renewal lease to you if you do not reach agreement on the renewal terms. For larger tenancies, the landlord may agree to a valuation mechanism for a more objective determination of the rent for the renewal term.

Note your reinstatement obligations on expiry and ensure that you are able to return the premises to the landlord at the expiry of the lease so as to avoid the risk of liability for double rent for delay in return of premises.

It is interesting to note that there is a Fair Tenancy Framework which is being discussion, which is likely to be passed within the next few months and this would certainly affect the bargaining powers of the negotiating parties, particularly restricting the powers of the Landlord.

Five new high-profile retail projects completed in Q4: Wanda Plaza in Yanqing District, Joy Breeze in Daxing District, Beijing Fun Capital Wanda Plaza in Changping District, Beijing Shuangqiao Wanda Plaza, and Beiyuan Huamao Place (West Zone) in Chaoyang District. They added a combined 506,452 sq m of space, bringing total shopping mall supply to 12.6 million sq m, accounting for 87% of the city’s retail stock. The market continued to recover from the impacts of the pandemic in 2H, supported by initiatives from the government, developers and brands. A government-issued shopping voucher campaign, launched in June, together with shopping season promotions, have been key drivers in reviving consumer activity. New store openings rose significantly, led by F&B and fashion sectors, with several fashion brand first stores in the preferred Sanlitun and CBD submarkets. High-end sports brand Descente opened China’s first Descente Blanc flagship store at Takoo Li in Sanlitun, while Kilian launched a Beijing first store at Beijing SKP in the CBD. In Q4 Zara opened the doors to a new Asia flagship store, a four-storey standalone building in Wangfujing submarket of more than 3,500 sq m.

The Beijing office market is set for approximately 3 17 million sq m of new supply in the next three years, of which up to 1 5 million sq m is due in 2021 Under the weight of the supply influx and ongoing global economic headwinds, we expect overall office vacancy to continue to edge up and for rental levels to face downwards pressure However, in the longer term, as the wave of new supply abates and benefits from the expansion and opening up of the services industry and development of the Beijing Free Trade Zone are gradually realized, we expect to see renewed leasing demand in related financial and high tech industries, and further development opportunities for the Beijing office market.

概要

2020年の最終月、世界経済の好転を受け、金融市場はリスクオン・モードに転じました。新型コロナウイルスワクチンの普及見通し、米国の超党派による財政刺激策合意、そしてブレグジット後の英国とEUの貿易協定の締結は、センチメントに必要な刺激を与え、不動産株が好調な状態で取引を終える勢いを維持しました。しかしながら、2020年を通して不動産株は、テクノロジー株や製薬株に支えられた株式市場全体に対して低迷を続けました。不動産サイクルは、歴史的に経済回復よりも遅れて推移するとはいえ、最終的には危機からの脱却へと進むでしょう。しかし、この危機は、この地域の揺るぎない構造的ファンダメンタルズに支えられ、より長期にわたるものとなるでしょう。.

概要w

2020年の最終月、世界経済の好転を受け、金融市場はリスクオン・モードに転じました。新型コロナウイルスワクチンの普及見通し、米国の超党派による財政刺激策合意、そしてブレグジット後の英国とEUの貿易協定の締結は、センチメントに必要な刺激を与え、不動産株が好調な状態で取引を終える勢いを維持しました。しかしながら、2020年を通して不動産株は、テクノロジー株や製薬株に支えられた株式市場全体に対して低迷を続けました。不動産サイクルは、歴史的に経済回復よりも遅れて推移するとはいえ、最終的には危機からの脱却へと進むでしょう。しかし、この危機は、この地域の揺るぎない構造的ファンダメンタルズに支えられ、より長期にわたるものとなるでしょう。.

上場不動産

GPR/APREA上場不動産コンポジット指数は12月に1.6%のリターンを記録し、中国と香港の低迷が不動産セクターの重しとなり、アジア太平洋地域の株式市場とREIT市場の両方を下回りました。アジア太平洋地域の主要銘柄の中で、中国と香港の不動産株は、政策リスクがバリュエーションへの重しとなったため、年間ベースで最大の下落率を記録しました。開発業者に対するいわゆる「3つのレッドライン」規制に加え、中国本土の規制当局は、住宅ローン融資の抑制など、不動産セクターへの銀行融資を制限するための更なる措置を講じており、これは意図せずして住宅購入を抑制することにつながるでしょう。.

REIT

対照的に、GPR/APREAコンポジットREIT指数で追跡されているアジア太平洋地域のREITは、12月に5%以上上昇し、幅広い分野で上昇しました。しかし、それでもアジア太平洋地域のREITは2020年に成長領域に入るには至りませんでした。.

特に、よりリスクの高いセグメントへの回帰により、小売業は12月に6.5%増加しました。年間ベースでは、ホテルREITが最も大きな縮小を記録し、2020年全体で21.1%減少しました。これは、投資家が物流とデジタル資産への安全資産の流入を背景に、同時期に20%以上の利益を記録した産業セクターの好調なパフォーマンスとは対照的です。.

12月の上昇は各国で概ねプラスでしたが、感染再拡大がセンチメントを悪化させたタイは例外でした。タイも同様に感染者数の増加に見舞われたにもかかわらず、J-REITは依然として上昇を維持しました。政府は12月に73.6兆円に上る新たな景気刺激策を発表し、新型コロナウイルス危機による不況からの脱却に向けた決意を示しました。これは、過去2回の景気刺激策で計上された200兆円超の予算に続くものです。.

一方、韓国は、この地域におけるREITの成長を牽引する存在として台頭しています。ESRケイマン・リミテッドは、2020年12月23日にESRケンドール・スクエアREITの韓国総合株価指数(KOSPI)への上場を発表しました。これは、韓国で初めて機関投資家向け優良物流資産に特化したREITの上場となります。.

GPR/APREA指数シリーズの最新の四半期リバランスに伴い、インドとフィリピンの証券取引所への新規上場を含む11のREITが追加されました。また、産業セクターの銘柄数も拡大しました。.

見通し

パンデミックによって弱体化した経済活動を支えるため、金融政策は引き続き緩和的な姿勢を維持すると予想されています。これは歴史的にREITのバリュエーションを押し上げてきました。世界がワクチン接種の拡大を続けるにつれ、この地域の小売・オフィスセクターにはさらなる上昇余地が期待され、国境再開の見通しも高まっています。しかしながら、不確実性に新たな潮流をもたらす変異株の出現は、期待感を抑制する可能性が高いでしょう。これは、ポートフォリオのヘッジとして機能してきた「アンチパンデミック」産業REITの上昇を引き続き後押しするでしょう。.

Investors seeking yield will turn further toward real estate assets, while funds promising higher returns will be pushed up the risk curve

Lower for longer. Almost the entire way through the post-Global Financial Crisis economic cycle, interest rate calls have been revised downwards, or expectations of higher interest rates pushed well into the future. With COVID-19, that future looks even further away, if – a big if, given the liquidity pumped into the system – inflation is kept in check.

What does this mean for real estate? Preqin’s Future of Alternatives forecast is that private real estate assets under management (AUM) will grow from $1.05tn in 2020 to $1.24tn in 2025 (Fig. 1). While lower than our CAGR forecast of 9.8% for all alternative AUM, the real estate AUM growth of 3.4% per year should be viewed in the context of a market hit by what will likely be a period of demand uncertainty for its two largest asset classes: retail and offices.

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While office rents continued to drop in the downbeat market, tenants seized the opportunity for better relocation options, resulting in high activity in the leasing market during the month. However, landlords further softened their approach and adopted a more realistic stance in negotiating leasing terms to secure tenants, so the majority of tenants tended to renew their leases. As a result, new take-up of Grade-A office space was at an exceptional low level during the month, particularly in the CBD area.

Amid the challenging economic environment,


While office rents continued to drop in the downbeat market, tenants seized the opportunity for better relocation options, resulting in high activity in the leasing market during the month. However, landlords further softened their approach and adopted a more realistic stance in negotiating leasing terms to secure tenants, so the majority of tenants tended to renew their leases. As a result, new take-up of Grade-A office space was at an exceptional low level during the month, particularly in the CBD area.

Amid the challenging economic environment, cost-competitiveness remains a pressing consideration for tenants. Going into 2021, we therefore expect to see a continuing decentralisation trend. We also foresee rising demand for co-working space, as more companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which have been heavily impacted by the coronavirus-induced recession to actively explore flexible leasing options.