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From Q4 2020 to 2024, some 53.8 million sq ft gross floor area (GFA) of industrial space is slated to be completed. Of these, about 43.2% of the upcoming supply is expected to be completed in 2021, with a significant proportion being multiple-user and single-user factory spaces. Coupled with the phased withdrawal of government fiscal support for businesses, multipleuser factory prices and rents are likely to come under pressure, falling by not more than 5% in 2021 while single-user factories could fare slightly better.

  • The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly accelerated a number of secular shifts that were already starting to have fundamental impacts on the role real estate plays in the economy as well as in investment portfolios.
  • Such disruption increases the need for evolving data and analytics to understand the rapidly changing drivers of performance and risk consistently across all types of real estate investments.
  • Despite a long list of difficult questions facing the asset class, climate change and its impact on risk and return are more important than ever for real estate investors.

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HEALTHY TRANSACTION VOLUME AND MODERATE PRICE INCREASE IN A PANDEMIC YEAR

  • Prices of non-landed private residential properties (excluding Executive Condominiums (ECs)) in Q4 2020** saw the greatest quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) increase of 3.2% for 2020, bringing the full-year increase to 2.7% despite the economic turbulence.
  • In 2020*, non-landed private residential sales volume (excluding ECs) totalled 17,830 units, 4.7% more than in 2019 and a surprisingly good showing in a year of crisis. Strong support from needs-based buyers and eligible HDB upgraders combined to form healthy demand, bolstering sentiment despite economic uncertainty and restrictions on the re-issuance of OTPs.
  • There were 9,497 transactions in the primary market accounting for some 53.3% of total sales in 2020*, as developers pushed out new launches amid encouraging sales after Singapore exited the circuit breaker. While the secondary market was slower to regain momentum and trailed with 8,333 sales, sales caught up to some extent with some 2,904 units transacted in Q4* and 2,922 in Q3, more than three times the 760 units in Q2 2020 (Exhibit 1). The practicality of resale units due to its price discount, when compared to new sale units, and the greater choices available will continue to encourage sales.

LEASE terms in Singapore tend to be pro-landlord. If you are not renting a large area, your bargaining power may be limited and you should focus on aspects that are important to you. In finding a suitable property, bear in mind that different properties are approved for different uses. If you require office premises, it is not permissible to rent industrial premises for office use.

These days, it is common to find co-working space or serviced offices. Technically, the legal arrangement for use of such spaces is considered a licence rather than a lease as no exclusive possession of the premises is provided to the user.

When you have found premises that you wish to rent, a title search should be conducted on the property to verify the ownership and right of the landlord to lease the property. If the property is held by the landlord under a lease, the lease should be extracted to check whether the head lessor’s consent is required for subletting. If the property is subject to mortgage, the landlord should be requested to provide evidence of the bank’s consent as mortgages normally contain a restriction against subletting. If the bank’s consent is not obtained, and the bank takes possession of the property, the bank would not be bound by a tenancy entered into after the mortgage which the bank has not consented to.

For new buildings where the temporary occupation permit has not been issued, the commencement date of the lease would normally be subject to change. If you do not have any leeway for staying on in your existing premises, consider the risk of delay carefully before entering into such tenancies. On taking possession, have a joint inspection with the landlord to note down defects with photographic record and have both parties acknowledge the state and condition to avoid disputes at the time of return of the premises.

Where the premises are to be occupied by more than one company within the group, decide which entity is to be the tenant. Rent would normally be subject to Goods and Services Tax (GST) so the tenant entity should be GST-registered, if practicable. As most tenancies would contain a restriction against subletting or sharing of premises, the landlord’s consent should be obtained upfront for such subletting or sharing of premises within the group.

Besides rent, commercial landlords often charge a service charge for the maintenance of the building. For retail premises, there may also be advertising and promotion contributions. These amounts are subject to change. Landlords often pass some other charges such as utilities charges, and increase in property tax to the tenant. Many landlords pass their legal cost or administrative charges for preparation of the lease to the tenant. If the tenant requires amendments to the landlord’s standard lease format, there may also be additional legal costs for the amendments. Stamp duty on the tenancy is invariably borne by the tenant.

The amount of security deposit to be provided by the tenant would normally be based on the tenant’s paid-up capital. Where the tenant’s paid-up capital is low, the landlord would usually require a higher security deposit. The security deposit can be paid by cash or where the landlord agrees, by bank guarantee. A benefit of providing the security deposit by bank guarantee is that it is protected against insolvency of the landlord.

Tenants may wish to request the landlord for incentives to enter into the tenancy such as rent-free period for fitting out the premises and, if the landlord would agree, during the lease term. In the event that the tenant breaks the lease, the tenancy agreement would normally provide that the landlord may claw back the rent-free period granted to the tenant.

Landlords may allot a certain number of car park lots based on area of the premises. Often, these lots are granted on a non-reserved basis at prevailing car park charges. Larger tenants may wish to consider adding favourable clauses which cover naming rights, signage rights, first rights of refusal to purchase or exclusion of competitors in the building.

Read the lease carefully and note your obligations. Normally, renovations would require the landlord’s prior written consent. It is common for commercial landlords to reserve a right to terminate the lease in the event of redevelopment or renovation of the building or part of the building. If you are spending large amounts on renovations, you may wish to try to negotiate out the landlord’s right to terminate for the initial term so that you may recoup your renovation cost spent.

Where the tenant uses group insurance, the insurance clause of the tenancy agreement should be modified to provide for the landlord to be named as additional insured rather than joint insured. The tenant may only want to provide certificate of insurance, rather than the actual policy to the landlord for confidentiality reasons.

Commercial leases also often provide for exclusion of liability of the landlord and for the tenant to indemnify the landlord in various circumstances. Take your own protective measures and ensure that you have adequate insurance protection. Additionally, in view of the COVID-19 event and possible future pandemic, it is advisable to add the “force majeure” provisions; allowing termination if the ambit is sufficiently wide as such provisions are almost invariably omitted from commercial leases.

In the event of non-payment of rent or breach of lease terms by the tenant, the lease would normally provide for a right of re-entry by the landlord. In such an event, the landlord should try to mitigate its loss by seeking another tenant.

If you wish to stay on in the premises after the initial term, you may want to ask for an option to renew. Where rent or terms for renewal lease are to be stipulated by the landlord or agreed between the parties, you may not be able to compel the landlord to grant the renewal lease to you if you do not reach agreement on the renewal terms. For larger tenancies, the landlord may agree to a valuation mechanism for a more objective determination of the rent for the renewal term.

Note your reinstatement obligations on expiry and ensure that you are able to return the premises to the landlord at the expiry of the lease so as to avoid the risk of liability for double rent for delay in return of premises.

It is interesting to note that there is a Fair Tenancy Framework which is being discussion, which is likely to be passed within the next few months and this would certainly affect the bargaining powers of the negotiating parties, particularly restricting the powers of the Landlord.

Five new high-profile retail projects completed in Q4: Wanda Plaza in Yanqing District, Joy Breeze in Daxing District, Beijing Fun Capital Wanda Plaza in Changping District, Beijing Shuangqiao Wanda Plaza, and Beiyuan Huamao Place (West Zone) in Chaoyang District. They added a combined 506,452 sq m of space, bringing total shopping mall supply to 12.6 million sq m, accounting for 87% of the city’s retail stock. The market continued to recover from the impacts of the pandemic in 2H, supported by initiatives from the government, developers and brands. A government-issued shopping voucher campaign, launched in June, together with shopping season promotions, have been key drivers in reviving consumer activity. New store openings rose significantly, led by F&B and fashion sectors, with several fashion brand first stores in the preferred Sanlitun and CBD submarkets. High-end sports brand Descente opened China’s first Descente Blanc flagship store at Takoo Li in Sanlitun, while Kilian launched a Beijing first store at Beijing SKP in the CBD. In Q4 Zara opened the doors to a new Asia flagship store, a four-storey standalone building in Wangfujing submarket of more than 3,500 sq m.

The Beijing office market is set for approximately 3 17 million sq m of new supply in the next three years, of which up to 1 5 million sq m is due in 2021 Under the weight of the supply influx and ongoing global economic headwinds, we expect overall office vacancy to continue to edge up and for rental levels to face downwards pressure However, in the longer term, as the wave of new supply abates and benefits from the expansion and opening up of the services industry and development of the Beijing Free Trade Zone are gradually realized, we expect to see renewed leasing demand in related financial and high tech industries, and further development opportunities for the Beijing office market.

Overview

Conducive global developments placed financial markets on a risk-on mode in the final month of 2020. The prospect of widely available coronavirus vaccines, the US bipartisan agreement on fiscal stimulus, and the EU-UK post-Brexit trade agreement’s conclusion provided the necessary fillip to sentiment, sustaining momentum for real estate stocks to conclude on a positive note. However, for the whole of 2020, real estate stocks continued to lag the wider equity markets, which have been supported by tech and pharma counters. Property cycles will eventually chart its own way out of the crisis, which although historically lags an economic recovery, will be longer-lived, sustained by the region’s enduring structural fundamentals.

Overview

Conducive global developments placed financial markets on a risk-on mode in the final month of 2020. The prospect of widely available coronavirus vaccines, the US bipartisan agreement on fiscal stimulus, and the EU-UK post-Brexit trade agreement’s conclusion provided the necessary fillip to sentiment, sustaining momentum for real estate stocks to conclude on a positive note. However, for the whole of 2020, real estate stocks continued to lag the wider equity markets, which have been supported by tech and pharma counters. Property cycles will eventually chart its own way out of the crisis, which although historically lags an economic recovery, will be longer-lived, sustained by the region’s enduring structural fundamentals.

Listed Real Estate

The GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate Composite returned 1.6% in December, underperforming both the region’s equity and REIT markets, as the tepid performances in China and Hong Kong weighed on the sector. Among the region’s heavyweights, property stocks in China and Hong Kong posted the largest declines on an annual basis as policy risks amplified the drag on valuations. In addition to the so-called “three red line” limits on developers, Mainland regulators made further moves to cap bank loans to the property sector, including curbs on mortgage lending, which will inadvertently subdue home purchases.

REITs

In contrast, Asia Pacific REITs, as tracked by the GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index, advanced over 5% in December with broad-based gains. Still, this could not lift Asia Pacific REITs into growth territory for 2020.

Notably, rotation towards higher risk segments propelled Retail to rise by 6.5% in December. On an annual basis, Hotel REITs suffered the biggest contraction, shedding 21.1% for the whole of 2020. This is in contrast with Industrial’s strong performance, which chalked up over 20% in gains in the same period as investors sought safety in logistics and digital assets.

Gains in December were broadly positive across countries, with Thailand an exception, as a resurgence in infections depressed sentiment. Despite experiencing a similar surge in cases, J-REITs still managed to carve out gains. The government has announced fresh stimulus measures amounting to JPY73.6 trillion in December, signaling a resolve to pull the country out of its coronavirus crisis-induced slump. This follows the over JPY200 trillion budgeted from two previous packages.

Meanwhile, South Korea is emerging to be a growth catalyst for REITs in the region. ESR Cayman Limited announced the successful stock exchange listing of ESR Kendall Square REIT on the KOSPI on 23 December 2020, marking the first publicly listed institutional quality logistics asset focused REIT in South Korea.

Following the latest quarterly rebalancing of the GPR/APREA index series, 11 REITs were added, including debutants on the Indian and the Philippine bourse. Representation in the Industrial sector also expanded.

Outlook

Monetary policies are expected to remain accommodative to prop up economic activity weakened by the pandemic. This has historically fueled REIT valuations. As the world continues it vaccine rollout, more upside potential in the region’s retail and office sectors is expected, along with the prospects for the re-opening of borders. However, the emergence of mutated strains, which adds a new dynamic to the uncertainty, is likely to rein in expectations. This will continue to fuel gains in the “anti-pandemic” Industrial REITs, which have served as portfolio hedges.

Investors seeking yield will turn further toward real estate assets, while funds promising higher returns will be pushed up the risk curve

Lower for longer. Almost the entire way through the post-Global Financial Crisis economic cycle, interest rate calls have been revised downwards, or expectations of higher interest rates pushed well into the future. With COVID-19, that future looks even further away, if – a big if, given the liquidity pumped into the system – inflation is kept in check.

What does this mean for real estate? Preqin’s Future of Alternatives forecast is that private real estate assets under management (AUM) will grow from $1.05tn in 2020 to $1.24tn in 2025 (Fig. 1). While lower than our CAGR forecast of 9.8% for all alternative AUM, the real estate AUM growth of 3.4% per year should be viewed in the context of a market hit by what will likely be a period of demand uncertainty for its two largest asset classes: retail and offices.

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While office rents continued to drop in the downbeat market, tenants seized the opportunity for better relocation options, resulting in high activity in the leasing market during the month. However, landlords further softened their approach and adopted a more realistic stance in negotiating leasing terms to secure tenants, so the majority of tenants tended to renew their leases. As a result, new take-up of Grade-A office space was at an exceptional low level during the month, particularly in the CBD area.

Amid the challenging economic environment,


While office rents continued to drop in the downbeat market, tenants seized the opportunity for better relocation options, resulting in high activity in the leasing market during the month. However, landlords further softened their approach and adopted a more realistic stance in negotiating leasing terms to secure tenants, so the majority of tenants tended to renew their leases. As a result, new take-up of Grade-A office space was at an exceptional low level during the month, particularly in the CBD area.

Amid the challenging economic environment, cost-competitiveness remains a pressing consideration for tenants. Going into 2021, we therefore expect to see a continuing decentralisation trend. We also foresee rising demand for co-working space, as more companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which have been heavily impacted by the coronavirus-induced recession to actively explore flexible leasing options.