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自從泰國宣布進入緊急狀態以應對2019冠狀病毒病(COVID-19)疫情以來,已過一個多月。這場全球疫情對泰國經濟造成了嚴重衝擊,以至於泰國央行不得不將先前預測的2020年GDP成長預期從2.81兆至3兆美元下調至萎縮5.31兆至3兆美元。我們看到,不同的組織機構正在以各種方式應對這場危機,這可以說是迄今為止規模最大的職場實驗。一些公司…


自從泰國宣布進入緊急狀態以應對2019冠狀病毒病(COVID-19)疫情以來,已過一個多月。這場全球疫情對泰國經濟造成了嚴重衝擊,以至於泰國央行不得不將先前預測的2020年GDP成長預期從2.81兆至3兆美元下調至萎縮5.31兆至3兆美元。我們看到,不同的組織機構正在以各種方式應對這場危機,這可以說是迄今為止規模最大的職場實驗。.

一些公司正在調整員工的工作安排,讓員工輪流到辦公室上班和居家辦公。另一些公司則讓所有員工居家辦公。這極大地影響了企業和員工的工作方式,尤其是在一個對以往工作場所變革抵抗程度較高的國家。這也引發了人們對新冠疫情將對辦公地產市場產生長期影響的諸多疑問和判斷,其中不乏一些斷言辦公空間將走向消亡的極端論調。.

萊坊和泰國Peoplespace認為,以下動態將受新冠疫情影響,重塑辦公室格局。新冠疫情不太可能徹底顛覆或導致辦公室消亡。雖然疫情會促使人們更加審視並改變一些既有的市場行為,但其最深遠的影響在於推動和加速許多領先的辦公市場參與者早已開始的趨勢。.

“When virus-related restrictions ease, we expect to see the release of some pent-up demand, but this will reflect shifting preferences following the experience of the pandemic and extended working from home, with businesses all likely to take a different approach.”

We entered 2020 with cautious optimism as Asia-Pacific property markets remained relatively healthy and the phase one trade deal was signed between the US and China. Then COVID-19 struck, throwing markets into turmoil, and with it, knocking many of our previous forecasts off-course. This year has been dominated by the pandemic, with activity and performance of the various real estate asset classes linked to just how they have been impacted by the virus. As this report highlights, geographies and property types have all been influenced by lockdowns, restrictions, and the ensuing economic weakness. However, as we now look towards 2021 and the potential recovery it may bring, here are six trends that give a sense of what lies ahead:


We entered 2020 with cautious optimism as Asia-Pacific property markets remained relatively healthy and the phase one trade deal was signed between the US and China. Then COVID-19 struck, throwing markets into turmoil, and with it, knocking many of our previous forecasts off-course. This year has been dominated by the pandemic, with activity and performance of the various real estate asset classes linked to just how they have been impacted by the virus. As this report highlights, geographies and property types have all been influenced by lockdowns, restrictions, and the ensuing economic weakness. However, as we now look towards 2021 and the potential recovery it may bring, here are six trends that give a sense of what lies ahead:

  1. Work-from-home experiment will leave a lasting impact
  2. Logistics driven by e-commerce and supply chain security
  3. Investors circling for distress may be disappointed
  4. Monetary policy to remain supportive of residential markets
  5. Real estate to contribute to the ‘Green Recovery
  6. US-China relations to continue to be important for the region

由於研發中的疫苗試驗成功,令大流行病有望終止,區內房地產股在 11 月扭轉了連續兩個月的跌勢。由於喬-比登勝選,地緣政治環境有望更趨穩定,全球最大的貿易協定也在 11 月簽署。包括東盟集團、澳洲、中國、日本、南韓和紐西蘭在內的 15 個亞太經濟體簽署了區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定,突顯了該協定在大流行病後的復原工作中所扮演的重要角色。.

由於研發中的疫苗試驗成功,令大流行病有望終止,區內房地產股在 11 月扭轉了連續兩個月的跌勢。由於喬-比登勝選,地緣政治環境有望更趨穩定,全球最大的貿易協定也在 11 月簽署。包括東盟集團、澳洲、中國、日本、南韓和紐西蘭在內的 15 個亞太經濟體簽署了區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定,突顯了該協定在大流行病後的復原工作中所扮演的重要角色。.

 上市房地產

GPR/APREA 上市房地產綜合指數回報 11.4%,表現優於區內股票市場。大部份地區的房地產股,尤其是東南亞新興市場的房地產股均錄得升幅。泰國擺脫了持續的內亂,錄得區內最大回報;澳洲的房地產股因維多利亞州放寬禁區而上揚。香港及中國亦受惠於數據向好,顯示全球第二大經濟體持續復甦,10 月份消費開支穩步回升,工業產出增幅亦高於預期。中國央行已於 11 月向金融體系注入更多流動資金,以維持動力。.

房地產投資信託基金

以 GPR/APREA 綜合房地產投資信託基金指數追蹤的亞太房地產投資信託基金收高 9.7%。同樣地,受大流行病打擊最嚴重的行業也帶動了反彈。.

零售業房地產投資信託基金(REITs)漲幅最大,其次是酒店業,因為這兩個行業都可能從疫苗的推出中受益最多。辦公房地產投資信託基金(REITs)也因經濟敏感型股票的輪動而上揚。工業房地產投資信託基金(Industrial REITs)則顯然沒有受惠。.

亞太地區的許多股市中,房地產投資信託基金(REITs)股票都錄得雙位數漲幅。泰國的房地產投資信託基金(REITs)成份股漲幅居前,其中零售業和餐旅業 REITs 因泰國重新開放 60 天的旅遊簽證給所有遊客而反彈。澳洲的零售業房地產投資信託基金(REITs)也因關卡放寬而上揚。.

展望

工業部門以外的持續復甦仍是復甦至大流行前高位的先決條件。雖然零售及酒店業將繼續回復大流行病前的高位,但在未明朗全面回復正常的情況下,路徑可能仍不平坦。由於對疫苗試驗進展的欣喜已逐漸被定價,在投資者對短期前景仍然感到憂慮的情況下,進一步的方向在此期間將著重於短期動力。儘管如此,我們預期疫苗相關的樂觀氣氛仍會持續至 12 月。到目前為止,風險較高資產的復甦幅度擴大,顯示投資人相信前景至少較為明朗。美國目前因政治爭拗而無法達成刺激經濟的協議,而亞洲地區第三季 GDP 成長數據優於預期,這些都是市場情緒的驅動力,仍可支持市場。.

  • 第一太平戴維斯科技城是當地重要的科技中心,也是創業資本 (VC) 的投資熱點。這些城市充滿活力,適合居住和工作,也是吸引人才的磁石。.
  • 對於科技人才和企業用戶而言,健康比以往任何時候都重要。我們的科技生活城市在這方面擁有優勢,空氣品質較佳、可使用綠地且佔地面積較小。第一太平戴維斯「數位遊牧者必備要素指數」強調當今人才最關心的一些因素。.
  • 儘管 2020 年發生了動盪,但在北京和舊金山的帶領下,科技大城仍繼續主導創業投資。新加坡部分受惠於中美貿易戰,也受到提振。.
  • 從底特律到橫濱,一系列新興的全球科技競爭城市正在崛起。科技進步、政府計畫和成本優勢,都是成長的動力。.
  • 雖然許多科技公司在疫情發生後採取在家工作的策略,但他們投入大量資金的市中心辦公室與校園,仍將是重要的員工合作場所、灌輸公司文化,以及吸引最優秀、最聰明人才的地方。.
  • 在社會疏離、注重健康與福祉的時代,城外的科技校園已經煥然一新。我們探討了五個以健康為核心的範例

Based on our forecast model and insight from over 100 fund managers and 100 investors, we provide a detailed forecast of what the alternatives industry could look like in 2025. We analyze what the next five years hold for each asset class and region, explore changes underway in the investor universe, and identify the megatrends driving change in the industry.

We expect AUM growth in alternative assets to average 9.8% per year to 2025. Persistently low interest rates will attract investors of all types drawn to the promise of outperformance, diversification, and lower correlation with public markets. Among our key predictions, private equity will top $9tn in assets by 2025, and Asia’s AUM will grow at a world-beating CAGR of 25.2%. Our forecast is supported by our Future of Alternatives 2025 survey, in which 81% of investors said they expect to increase allocations to alternatives in the next five years.

Read the report for AUM forecasts, data-driven analysis, insights, and predictions. Some of them may surprise you…

Click Here to View Full Article

新冠疫情席捲全球,隨之而來的封鎖措施讓「居家辦公」(WFH)這個概念從邊緣走向主流。這在全球範圍內敲響了警鐘,從沃倫·巴菲特等精明的投資者到分析師和其他市場觀察人士,都認為中央商務區(CBD)辦公大樓市場的時代已經結束。那些認為居家辦公將大幅降低辦公空間需求的人有其合理之處,但他們對需求的擔憂並未充分考慮以下幾點:

新冠疫情席捲全球,隨之而來的封鎖措施讓「居家辦公」(WFH)這個概念從邊緣走向主流。這在全球範圍內敲響了警鐘,從沃倫·巴菲特等精明的投資者到分析師和其他市場觀察人士,都認為中央商務區(CBD)辦公大樓市場的時代已經結束。那些認為居家辦公將大幅降低辦公空間需求的人有其合理之處,但他們對需求的擔憂並未充分考慮以下幾點:

  1. 辦公室租賃條款的特殊性
  2. 時域
  3. 新需求

如果不考慮這些因素,任何市場分析都可能有偏差。今天,我們將分析新加坡中央商務區甲級辦公室市場,探討在將這三個因素與主流的居家辦公觀點(即需求將大幅下降)相結合後,該市場未來可能發生的變化。我們將從一系列可能的變化中,根據我們先前的機率預測哪些變化在未來更有可能發生。這種方法與僅經過一輪推理就得出單一結論的做法截然不同。.

Many occupiers are looking to reduce the total amount of office space they occupy, due to the preference for some employees to continue working from home following lockdown. This change in occupier preference, combined with the large amount of new supply, has resulted in occupiers looking to…


Many occupiers are looking to reduce the total amount of office space they occupy, due to the preference for some employees to continue working from home following lockdown. This change in occupier preference, combined with the large amount of new supply, has resulted in occupiers looking to secure smaller office spaces within new developments, enabling them to increase the quality of their offices whilst also potentially reducing their total rent. This shift will have a severe impact on landlords of older buildings, however and it is likely that occupancy rates across the market will continue to fall.

With the eff ects of the pandemic looking likely to continue into 2021, Savills expects to see more occupiers looking to reduce their office space. Considering this along with the large amount of future supply completing over the next five years, it’s likely a large number of occupiers will seek to relocate into smaller units within newly completed office buildings.

The trade war between China and the US has pushed Taiwan’s tech and manufacturing companies to rethink their supply chain strategies which used to rely heavily on China. Taiwan’s tech industry saw a large wave of off shoring to China from 2000, especially the electronic component and computer sectors, resulting in…


The trade war between China and the US has pushed Taiwan’s tech and manufacturing companies to rethink their supply chain strategies which used to rely heavily on China. Taiwan’s tech industry saw a large wave of off shoring to China from 2000, especially the electronic component and computer sectors, resulting in four of China’s top 10 companies exporting to the US originating from Taiwan, including Foxconn, Quanta, Pegatron, and Compal Electronics. As the trade war tensions have escalated, Taiwanese companies are considering relocating production lines to Southeast Asia and Taiwan in order to diversify their manufacturing base.

Industrial land prices have increased steadily over the past five years owing to the strong demand from local end-users. Although the global economic outlook is gloomy, we believe that the average industrial land price could rise by 3% in 2020, especially in traditionally cheaper areas. As land prices in New Taipei City and Taoyuan have increased significantly, tech corporates have had to modify their factory expansion plans to focus on more affordable areas, such as industrial parks in middle and southern Taiwan. We reason that industrial land in those areas is expected to witness stronger price growth in the near future.

Retail projected were forced to actively adjust their tenant brand mixes to stand out in the increasingly competitive crowd of retail projects in Chongqing. Following the Metro Park’s substantial brand adjustment in 1H/2020…


Retail projected were forced to actively adjust their tenant brand mixes to stand out in the increasingly competitive crowd of retail projects in Chongqing.

Following the Metro Park’s substantial brand adjustment in 1H/2020, the shopping mall actively introduced many new retail brands into its low zones, such as children’s entertainment brands, medical beauty institutions and fine dining establishments with larger leased areas than in the high zone, helping strengthen the brand richness in the project.

In Q3/2020, Starlight Plaza, located in the Jiefangbei submarket, announced that it would officially launch a major adjustment to comprehensively renew the positioning of the mall and brand categories to accelerate the integrated development of the project. This adjustment will be the first since the project opened in 2015.