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From Q4 2020 to 2024, some 53.8 million sq ft gross floor area (GFA) of industrial space is slated to be completed. Of these, about 43.2% of the upcoming supply is expected to be completed in 2021, with a significant proportion being multiple-user and single-user factory spaces. Coupled with the phased withdrawal of government fiscal support for businesses, multipleuser factory prices and rents are likely to come under pressure, falling by not more than 5% in 2021 while single-user factories could fare slightly better.

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  • The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly accelerated a number of secular shifts that were already starting to have fundamental impacts on the role real estate plays in the economy as well as in investment portfolios.
  • Such disruption increases the need for evolving data and analytics to understand the rapidly changing drivers of performance and risk consistently across all types of real estate investments.
  • Despite a long list of difficult questions facing the asset class, climate change and its impact on risk and return are more important than ever for real estate investors.

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HEALTHY TRANSACTION VOLUME AND MODERATE PRICE INCREASE IN A PANDEMIC YEAR

  • Prices of non-landed private residential properties (excluding Executive Condominiums (ECs)) in Q4 2020** saw the greatest quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) increase of 3.2% for 2020, bringing the full-year increase to 2.7% despite the economic turbulence.
  • In 2020*, non-landed private residential sales volume (excluding ECs) totalled 17,830 units, 4.7% more than in 2019 and a surprisingly good showing in a year of crisis. Strong support from needs-based buyers and eligible HDB upgraders combined to form healthy demand, bolstering sentiment despite economic uncertainty and restrictions on the re-issuance of OTPs.
  • There were 9,497 transactions in the primary market accounting for some 53.3% of total sales in 2020*, as developers pushed out new launches amid encouraging sales after Singapore exited the circuit breaker. While the secondary market was slower to regain momentum and trailed with 8,333 sales, sales caught up to some extent with some 2,904 units transacted in Q4* and 2,922 in Q3, more than three times the 760 units in Q2 2020 (Exhibit 1). The practicality of resale units due to its price discount, when compared to new sale units, and the greater choices available will continue to encourage sales.
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新加坡的租赁条款通常对房东有利。如果您租的面积不大，议价能力可能有限，因此您应该专注于对您而言重要的方面。在寻找合适的房产时，请记住，不同的房产用途各不相同。如果您需要办公场所，则不能租用工业用地作为办公用途。.

如今，联合办公空间或服务式办公室随处可见。从法律角度讲，此类空间的使用安排属于许可而非租赁，因为用户并未获得对办公场所的独占使用权。.

找到心仪的租赁房产后，应进行产权调查，以核实房产的所有权和出租人的权利。如果房产由出租人以租赁方式持有，则应提取租赁合同，查看是否需要主出租人的同意才能转租。如果房产设有抵押贷款，则应要求出租人提供银行同意转租的证明，因为抵押贷款通常包含禁止转租的条款。如果未获得银行的同意，且银行收回了房产，则银行不受抵押贷款后签订的未经其同意的租赁合同的约束。.

对于尚未获得临时占用许可证的新建房屋，租赁生效日期通常会有所变更。如果您无法继续居住在现有房屋内，请在签订此类租赁协议前仔细考虑延误的风险。收房时，请与房东共同进行房屋检查，拍照记录房屋缺陷，并由双方确认房屋的状况，以避免在归还房屋时产生纠纷。.

如果集团内多家公司将共用办公场所，则需确定哪家公司作为承租方。租金通常需缴纳商品及服务税 (GST)，因此承租方应尽可能进行 GST 注册。由于大多数租赁合同都包含禁止转租或合租的条款，因此，如需在集团内进行此类转租或合租，应事先征得出租方的同意。.

除了租金外，商业房东通常还会收取物业维护费。对于零售物业，可能还会收取广告和促销费用。这些费用可能会有所变动。房东通常会将一些其他费用，例如水电费和房产税上涨部分转嫁给租户。许多房东还会将准备租赁合同的法律费用或行政费用转嫁给租户。如果租户需要修改房东的标准租赁合同，则可能还会产生额外的法律费用。租赁印花税通常由租户承担。.

租户需缴纳的押金金额通常取决于其已缴资本。如果租户的已缴资本较低，房东通常会要求更高的押金。押金可以现金支付，也可以经房东同意后以银行担保支付。以银行担保支付押金的好处在于，即使房东破产，押金也能得到保障。.

租户可能希望向房东申请一些优惠条件以签订租赁协议，例如免租期用于装修房屋，如果房东同意，甚至可以在整个租赁期内免租。如果租户违约，租赁协议通常会规定房东有权收回已给予租户的免租期。.

业主可根据物业面积分配一定数量的停车位。通常情况下，这些车位不设预留，并按现行停车收费标准收取费用。规模较大的租户可能希望在租赁合同中加入有利条款，例如冠名权、标牌权、优先购买权或排除竞争对手入驻的权利。.

仔细阅读租赁合同，并注意您的义务。通常情况下，装修需要事先获得房东的书面同意。商业房东通常会保留在建筑物或其部分进行重建或翻新时终止租赁合同的权利。如果您在装修上投入了大量资金，您可以尝试与房东协商，争取在初始租期内取消其终止合同的权利，以便收回已投入的装修费用。.

如果租户使用团体保险，则应修改租赁协议中的保险条款，将房东列为附加被保险人而非共同被保险人。出于保密原因，租户可能只想向房东提供保险证明，而不是保单原件。.

商业租赁合同通常也会规定房东免责，并要求租户在各种情况下赔偿房东的损失。您也应采取必要的保护措施，确保拥有足够的保险保障。此外，鉴于新冠疫情以及未来可能发生的全球大流行，建议您在租赁合同中加入“不可抗力”条款；如果该条款的适用范围足够广泛，则应允许终止租赁，因为此类条款几乎总是被商业租赁合同所忽略。.

如果租户拖欠租金或违反租赁条款，租赁合同通常会赋予房东收回房屋的权利。在这种情况下，房东应尽量寻找其他租户以减少损失。.

如果您希望在初始租期结束后继续租住该房屋，您可以要求续租选择权。如果租金或续租条款由房东规定或由双方协商确定，而您未能就续租条款达成一致，您可能无法强制房东同意续租。对于租期较长的房屋，房东可能会同意采用估值机制，以便更客观地确定续租期的租金。.

请注意您在租赁期满时的恢复原状义务，并确保您能够在租赁期满时将房屋归还给房东，以避免因延迟归还房屋而承担双倍租金的责任。.

值得注意的是，目前正在讨论一项公平租赁框架，该框架很可能在未来几个月内获得通过，这肯定会影响谈判各方的议价能力，特别是限制房东的权力。.

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Five new high-profile retail projects completed in Q4: Wanda Plaza in Yanqing District, Joy Breeze in Daxing District, Beijing Fun Capital Wanda Plaza in Changping District, Beijing Shuangqiao Wanda Plaza, and Beiyuan Huamao Place (West Zone) in Chaoyang District. They added a combined 506,452 sq m of space, bringing total shopping mall supply to 12.6 million sq m, accounting for 87% of the city’s retail stock. The market continued to recover from the impacts of the pandemic in 2H, supported by initiatives from the government, developers and brands. A government-issued shopping voucher campaign, launched in June, together with shopping season promotions, have been key drivers in reviving consumer activity. New store openings rose significantly, led by F&B and fashion sectors, with several fashion brand first stores in the preferred Sanlitun and CBD submarkets. High-end sports brand Descente opened China’s first Descente Blanc flagship store at Takoo Li in Sanlitun, while Kilian launched a Beijing first store at Beijing SKP in the CBD. In Q4 Zara opened the doors to a new Asia flagship store, a four-storey standalone building in Wangfujing submarket of more than 3,500 sq m.

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The Beijing office market is set for approximately 3 17 million sq m of new supply in the next three years, of which up to 1 5 million sq m is due in 2021 Under the weight of the supply influx and ongoing global economic headwinds, we expect overall office vacancy to continue to edge up and for rental levels to face downwards pressure However, in the longer term, as the wave of new supply abates and benefits from the expansion and opening up of the services industry and development of the Beijing Free Trade Zone are gradually realized, we expect to see renewed leasing demand in related financial and high tech industries, and further development opportunities for the Beijing office market.

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概述

2020年最后一个月，有利的全球形势推动金融市场进入风险偏好模式。新冠疫苗广泛普及的前景、美国两党就财政刺激方案达成一致以及欧盟与英国脱欧后贸易协议的达成，都为市场情绪提供了必要的提振，并维持了房地产股的上涨势头，最终以积极的姿态收官。然而，在整个2020年，房地产股的表现持续落后于受科技股和医药股支撑的整体股市。房地产周期最终将走出危机，尽管历史上房地产复苏往往滞后于经济复苏，但此次危机持续时间更长，这得益于该地区持久的结构性基本面。.

概述w

2020年最后一个月，有利的全球形势推动金融市场进入风险偏好模式。新冠疫苗广泛普及的前景、美国两党就财政刺激方案达成一致以及欧盟与英国脱欧后贸易协议的达成，都为市场情绪提供了必要的提振，并维持了房地产股的上涨势头，最终以积极的姿态收官。然而，在整个2020年，房地产股的表现持续落后于受科技股和医药股支撑的整体股市。房地产周期最终将走出危机，尽管历史上房地产复苏往往滞后于经济复苏，但此次危机持续时间更长，这得益于该地区持久的结构性基本面。.

上市房地产

12月份，GPR/APREA上市房地产综合指数的回报率为1.6%，表现逊于亚太地区的股票和房地产投资信托基金（REIT）市场，中国内地和香港房地产市场的疲软表现拖累了整个板块。在亚太地区权重股中，中国内地和香港的房地产股同比跌幅最大，政策风险加剧了估值下行压力。除了对开发商实施所谓的“三红线”限制外，内地监管机构还进一步采取措施限制银行对房地产行业的贷款，包括限制按揭贷款，这将间接抑制房屋购买量。.

房地产投资信托基金

相比之下，以GPR/APREA综合REIT指数为代表的亚太地区REITs在12月份上涨超过5100万亿美元，涨幅普遍。尽管如此，亚太地区REITs在2020年仍未能实现增长。.

值得注意的是，资金转向高风险板块推动零售业在12月份上涨了6.51万亿卢比。按年计算，酒店房地产投资信托基金（REITs）的跌幅最大，2020年全年缩水21.11万亿卢比。这与工业地产的强劲表现形成鲜明对比，同期工业地产的涨幅超过201万亿卢比，原因是投资者寻求物流和数字资产的避险。.

12月，除泰国外，各国股市普遍上涨，泰国疫情反弹导致市场情绪低迷。尽管疫情反弹幅度类似，日本房地产投资信托基金（J-REITs）依然实现了上涨。日本政府在12月宣布了总额达73.6万亿日元的新一轮刺激措施，表明其决心带领国家走出新冠疫情危机引发的经济衰退。此前，政府已通过两轮刺激计划投入超过200万亿日元。.

与此同时，韩国正崛起为该地区房地产投资信托基金（REITs）的增长催化剂。ESR Cayman Limited于2020年12月23日宣布，旗下ESR Kendall Square REIT已成功在韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）上市，这标志着韩国首只专注于机构级物流资产的优质REIT正式上市。.

在GPR/APREA指数系列最新一季度调整后，新增了11家房地产投资信托基金（REITs），其中包括在印度和菲律宾证券交易所首次上市的REITs。工业板块的REITs数量也有所增加。.

前景

为支撑受疫情影响而疲软的经济活动，货币政策预计将继续保持宽松。历史上，这通常会推高房地产投资信托基金（REITs）的估值。随着全球疫苗接种工作的持续推进，以及边境重新开放的前景，该地区的零售和办公楼市场预计将有更大的上涨空间。然而，变异毒株的出现为市场不确定性增添了新的变数，可能会抑制市场预期。这将继续推动“抗疫型”工业房地产投资信托基金（REITs）的上涨，这些基金一直以来都被视为投资组合的对冲工具。.

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Investors seeking yield will turn further toward real estate assets, while funds promising higher returns will be pushed up the risk curve

Lower for longer. Almost the entire way through the post-Global Financial Crisis economic cycle, interest rate calls have been revised downwards, or expectations of higher interest rates pushed well into the future. With COVID-19, that future looks even further away, if – a big if, given the liquidity pumped into the system – inflation is kept in check.

What does this mean for real estate? Preqin’s Future of Alternatives forecast is that private real estate assets under management (AUM) will grow from $1.05tn in 2020 to $1.24tn in 2025 (Fig. 1). While lower than our CAGR forecast of 9.8% for all alternative AUM, the real estate AUM growth of 3.4% per year should be viewed in the context of a market hit by what will likely be a period of demand uncertainty for its two largest asset classes: retail and offices.

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While office rents continued to drop in the downbeat market, tenants seized the opportunity for better relocation options, resulting in high activity in the leasing market during the month. However, landlords further softened their approach and adopted a more realistic stance in negotiating leasing terms to secure tenants, so the majority of tenants tended to renew their leases. As a result, new take-up of Grade-A office space was at an exceptional low level during the month, particularly in the CBD area.

Amid the challenging economic environment,

While office rents continued to drop in the downbeat market, tenants seized the opportunity for better relocation options, resulting in high activity in the leasing market during the month. However, landlords further softened their approach and adopted a more realistic stance in negotiating leasing terms to secure tenants, so the majority of tenants tended to renew their leases. As a result, new take-up of Grade-A office space was at an exceptional low level during the month, particularly in the CBD area.

Amid the challenging economic environment, cost-competitiveness remains a pressing consideration for tenants. Going into 2021, we therefore expect to see a continuing decentralisation trend. We also foresee rising demand for co-working space, as more companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which have been heavily impacted by the coronavirus-induced recession to actively explore flexible leasing options.

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