思想領導

主要趨勢

• 零售銷售成長放緩
• 通貨膨脹和經濟衰退擔憂抑制了消費。
• 租賃活動略有復甦
• 奢侈品牌變得更加活躍
• 新冠疫情對中國大陸需求沒有影響
• 零售商仍將保持謹慎

本報告原刊登於 https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/asia-pacific-retail-trends-q3-2022

主要趨勢

• 經濟成長放緩和通膨壓力對租賃活動構成壓力
• 中國大陸市場溫和復甦，但其他市場持平或走弱。
• 金融、科技和共享辦公室仍然是主要的需求驅動因素。
• 建築和裝修成本上漲導致新供應延遲
• 遷往優質住所仍是最受歡迎的策略
• 隨著經濟擔憂加劇，租戶預計將繼續保持成本謹慎態度。

本報告原刊登於 https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/asia-pacific-office-trends-q3-2022

• 亞太區靈活辦公空間市場於 2022 年繼續呈現審慎增長，截至 9 月，區內靈活辦公空間總體量達 7,600 萬平方呎，較 2021 年按年增長 6%，較大疫情前增長 15%。.
• 截至 9 月，亞太地區靈活辦公空間約佔辦公樓總存量的 4%，佔甲級辦公樓總存量的 3%。在甲級市場中，印度和新加坡的靈活辦公空間滲透率最高，而大多數北亞市場僅僅低於 2%。.
• 科技公司和商業服務公司仍然是彈性辦公空間的主要使用者。金融、生命科學和消費性產品公司對靈活辦公空間的興趣也與日俱增。.
• 2023 年將持續塑造彈性辦公室景觀的趨勢包括

1. 彈性空間營運商提供隨選會員服務，以迎合因混合式工作方式普及而造成的工作人員較為分散的情況
2. 用戶對客製化企業解決方案和統包解決方案的需求日益增加，以降低不斷上升的裝修成本和資本支出限制
3. 採用輕資產策略，靈活空間經營者與業主利用管理合約建立夥伴關係

本報告原刊登於 https://www.cbre.com/insights/briefs/h2-2022-asia-pacific-flexible-office-market-deliberate-growth-continues

在全球大流行病發生近三年後，零售業經歷了可以想像得到的最大壓力考驗之一，但一流的房地產仍然保持穩健，甚至在某些市場更茁壯成長。.

Cushman & Wakefield 的旗艦報告 Main Streets Across the World (全球主要街道) 追蹤 92 個城市的頂尖零售區，並按黃金地段的租金價值列出最昂貴的零售區。此年度報告將持續至 2019 年，今年的報告是自此之後的首份報告，可讓您深入瞭解大流行前後的比較表現。.

租金成長亮點

• 全球主要零售地點的租金在大流行期間平均下跌 13%，但目前已回升至僅低於大流行前的 6%。.
• 美洲是最有彈性的地區，這主要歸功於美國，目前平均租金較大疫情前的水平高出 15%。.
• 在亞太地區，受國際邊境關閉影響，黃金地段的旅遊業受到抑制，租金平均下跌 17%。.

全球排名

• 紐約的上第五大道（Upper Fifth Avenue）排名上升一位，成為全球最昂貴的零售地點。.
• 香港已滑落至第二位，尖沙咀超越銅鑼灣成為香港最昂貴的地區。.
• 米蘭的 Via Montenapoleone 上升了兩位，排名第三，倫敦的 New Bond Street 和巴黎的 The Avenues des Champs Elysees 擠進前五名。.

本季度，萊坊數據中心報告聚焦亞太地區的增長市場。市場分析包括大阪、墨爾本、雅加達、馬尼拉、河內、台北，以及印度城市海德拉巴、新德里和欽奈。.

前幾個季度全球主要數據中心市場的數據中心供應量增長軌跡，現在也反映在該地區的二線城市。在強勁的需求基本面和數據中心設施本地化趨勢的支持下，報告的亞太地區市場的總供應量（已啟用、在建和已承諾容量）已從五年前的略低於 700 兆瓦增長到目前的超過 3,000 兆瓦。僅在 2022 年的前三季，就新增了約 600 兆瓦的產能。.

墨爾本、雅加達和大阪目前各自擁有超過半千兆瓦的 IT 供應總量。墨爾本的註冊 IT 供應量為 593MW，NextDC、AirTrunk、Vantage 和 Stack Infrastructure 等當地和區域運營商對此重新產生興趣，這將為現有的實時供應量增加近 450MW。據悉，微軟也計劃在此設立設施。雅加達的超大規模雲端服務供應商（如亞馬遜和微軟）以及各式各樣的本地和國際運營商，都已宣布並規劃了大量的產能，數倍於現有的供應量。大阪持續發展成為日本的另一個資料中心市場，以補足更成熟的東京地區。.

海德拉巴、新德里和欽奈等主要城市也錄得快速成長，各擁有 300MW 至 400MW 的 IT 產能。其中約三分之二的供應量是在過去幾年新增的，計劃或已承諾的總供應量約為 50%。近年來數據中心產業投資的增加，主要是受到政府政策的推動，包括更容易取得信貸以及其他刺激數據中心投資的措施。市場上活躍的廠商包括 CtrlS、Sify Technologies、Nxtra by Airtel 和 Web Werks 等當地公司，AdaniConnex 和 BAM Digital Realty 等合資企業，以及雲端服務供應商。.

在東南亞，台北、馬尼拉和河內持續受到超大型 CSP 和資料中心投資者日益濃厚的興趣。AWS 於今年宣布在馬尼拉和河內設立當地專區，並正在逐步推出，而這家全球公司也於 2022 年 10 月在台北推出當地專區。目前這些市場的主要參與者主要包括當地的電信公司，以及少數的區域合資企業，例如菲律賓的 STT-Globe 和越南的 NTT-VNPT。.

整體而言，亞太地區增長市場的數據中心活動仍保持強勁的擴張勢頭，反映出各個地區需求的持續彈性。.

本報告原刊登於 https://app.dcbyte.com/knight-frank-data-centres-report/Q3-2022/

在這篇文章中，我們將探討一個新興的基礎建設子集，它正引起全球私募基金和養老基金越來越多的興趣 - 教育基礎建設或「EduInfra」。EduInfra 是指用於提供教育等社會服務的基礎設施、建築物和土地。.

EduInfra 對尋求穩定收益的國際年金投資者具有吸引力。與其他類似資產類別相比，該行業的優勢在於其不與 GDP 掛鉤，且具有相當大的資本升值潛力，可抵禦經濟衰退。該行業的入市資本增值率為 10 - 11%，租金增值率為 3 - 5%。儘管市場擁有顯著的深度，但潛力尚未釋放，因為營運商只是緩慢地邁向輕資產模式。 EduInfra 歸類為基礎建設，可透過投資信託基金（InvITs）達到最佳稅務退出，也可作為吸引機構投資者的成長平台。.

本文原載於 https://resolutpartners.com/2022/11/15/eduinfra-emergence-of-a-new-asset-class/

辦公樓：2022 年第三季度，宏觀經濟逆轉及通脹壓力拖累辦公樓租賃活動，淨吸納量環比下降 11%，至 1,010 萬平方呎。金融業仍是租賃需求的主要動力，科技及聯合辦公平台的租賃活動亦見活躍。租金環比上升 0.4%，同比上升 1.1%。.

零售業：由於全球經濟衰退的恐懼持續影響消費者信心，零售業銷售增長放緩。然而，隨著與大流行病相關的限制進一步放寬，整個地區的空置率下降。租金按年下跌 1.8%，但按季上升 0.3%。.

物流：2022 年第三季度，亞洲各地的租賃活動有所放緩，中國大陸、韓國和印度等市場的需求疲弱。由於供應進一 步減少，太平洋地區的租賃量較去年同期疲弱。2022 年第三季度租金增長 1.4%，增速略低於前兩個季度。.

投資：高利率繼續損害亞太區主要市場的投資，導致商業房地產投資額按年下跌 20% 至 123 億美元。收購主要由房地產基金、房地產公司、房地產投資信託基金及機構集團所推動。跨境投資按年減少 1.0% 至 $80 億美元。.

本報告原刊登於 https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/asia-pacific-figures-q3-2022

電子商務在過去五年快速成長，自大流行病後更加速擴張。儘管電子商務滲透率在限制解除後從大流行病的高點回落，世邦魏理仕預期亞太地區未來的增長將繼續超越世界其他地區。在世邦魏理仕指出的六大電子商務驅動因素中，亞太地區在其中三項擁有明顯優勢：城市人口增長、數位錢包的採用以及充滿活力的電子商務生態系統。.

隨著零售產業持續朝全方位通路演進，實體商店的角色與功能也將隨之改變。零售商和業主需要重新塑造自己，為零售業的演進和全方位渠道的興起做好準備。.

電子商務的成長也帶動了強勁的工業與物流地產需求，儘管供應管道不太可能滿足未來的需求。我們建議物流業者探索按需求興建的發展項目，並投資於最新的倉庫技術。. 

本報告的主要重點包括

• 世邦魏理仕預測到 2026 年，亞太地區的電子商務滲透率將成長至 35%。然而，電子商務的滲透率會因不同的產品類別而有所不同。.
• 預計到 2026 年，韓國、中國大陸、印尼、澳洲和台灣將成為亞太地區滲透率最高的五大電子商務市場。.
• 儘管實體商店仍然不可或缺，但全方位通路的興起正促使許多傳統的實體零售商考慮新的形式和地點。.
• 在未來五年內，將有 1 億至 1.3 億平方公尺的新增專用樓面。
• 電子商務物流空間將需要支持亞太地區的線上銷售增長。.

本報告原刊登於 https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/Asia-Pacific-Report-Omnichannel-Retail-and-its-Impact-on-Asia-Pacific-Real-Estate-October-2022

As the global economy continues to chart a path in the post-pandemic world, real estate investment has a new favourite buzzword – new economy assets. While the term arose with the advent of digital and internet technologies, amid surging inflation and rising interest rates, new economy assets have taken on a whole lot of significance.

So, what is so new about the new economy? A key dynamic is the integration of digital technologies that is overhauling old economy services and products, spurred innovative distribution channels and sparked new, high-growth industries that are plugged into the tech and science megatrends. Increasingly, digital transformation is shaping the way we live, work and play and the real estate sectors underpinning this megatrend is set for a multi-year upcycle.

Riding the digital wave

The evolution of industry with the rise of new technologies is certainly not new. Throughout history, innovation has hastened creative destruction and redefined the global economy, with mobile technologies and the rise of e-commerce at the centre of the digital age. While the shift was under way before the pandemic, the impact of social distancing has been significant. The need to stay connected during the outbreak fast-tracked digital adoption. Across industries, companies were compelled to employ communication and mobile technologies and pivot to tech-enabled services.

The transition has prompted the rise of asset classes that are more geared to the requirements of the digital landscape. From cell towers and data centres to logistics hubs that make online living possible, the saying that real estate houses the economy also holds true in the new digital era. It is simple yet compelling link: megatrends need real estate and the bigger the tech, the more infrastructure required. The impact of digital disruption, magnified, will continue reverberating beyond the pandemic and drive structurally higher levels of technology investment.

Asia Pacific remains well positioned to ride the digital wave. Already by far the largest market for retail e-commerce, the region, home to more than half of the world’s population has over 60% born after 1990 – digital natives that will drive the adoption of digital technologies. According to a survey by McKinsey, this was fast forwarded by four years by consumers in the Asia Pacific while those for businesses leapt by 10 during the pandemic, the highest globally.

A spectrum of investment opportunities

This has cast several alternative sectors in a new light, awaking investors to the potential that such assets hold. Healthcare and Life Sciences became prominent in the wake of the health crisis while demand for streaming content have attracted funds to develop film production studios. Still, although a major headline, new economy real estate is not just about technology. Primarily, it is about capturing the underlying trends that are now rippling across Asia Pacific and globally.

A case in point is the region’s living sector, which is at the forefront of such shifts. Rapid urbanization, ageing demographics and remote working are propelling the nascent living sectors – from Multifamily to Co-living and Assisted Living – into the mainstream and attracting massive institutional funds. As more people gravitate to cities, the need for the required infrastructure buildup has also created a spectrum of long-term investment opportunities. In a low-growth, inflationary environment that we are now saddled with in this new normal, Infrastructure is an ideal countercyclical given its potential to provide high, stable and inflation-linked returns.

The resilience of such sectors is visibly demonstrated in listed real estate. Healthcare, Industrial and Residential REITs, as tracked by the GPR/APREA REIT Composite, have sustained positive annualized returns over a three-year period while those in Office, Hospitality and Retail are in the red. Notably, Industrial REITs’ market capitalization have risen over 50% during the pandemic, and despite the recent correction, remain more than 30% higher than its pre-pandemic peak.

Rebalancing and future-proofing

This new real estate world order have also wrought changes to investment strategies. An important feature in the new economy is the emergence of digital leaders and the inter-dependence of value chains, which create significant network effects. That means achieving scale rapidly is critical for investors to capture a large portion of market share in a sector.

To access the opportunities thrown up in the new landscape, investors need speed with execution. This means a need to build heft rapidly. Across the region, real estate players have restructured and pursuing M&As to expand and remain relevant, with integrated asset and fund management arms that has created an end-to-end platform to develop and incubate real estate developments through to its injection into a public vehicle. REITs with stabilized portfolios of new economy assets in developed markets are now being targeted in mega deals.

The current economic environment is creating an urgent need for investors to rebalance and future proof their portfolios. New economy sectors sit at the crossroads of major demographic and economic shifts as well as technological trends, which are occurring in the region and visibly underserved by traditional real estate classes. Layering in climate change concerns adds a further dimension to the idea of new economy assets, expanding possibilities.

In a rising rate environment and surging inflationary pressures, identifying sectors that are structurally undersupplied with the right long term demand fundamentals which generates positive rental reversions will be crucial in sustaining real returns. On all counts, new economy real estate is a powerful thematic that checks these boxes. These compelling fundamentals, taking place in a region that could eventually host more than half of the world’s megacities, promises a massive investment opportunity in the very assets that will be critical in securing its future.

Sigrid Zialcita

首席执行官
亞太房地產協會

Sigrid Zialcita

首席执行官
亞太房地產協會

Sigrid 是亚太不动产协会（APREA）的首席执行官。她常驻新加坡，负责监督协会在亚太地区的战略方向、计划和运营。在她的领导下，亚太不动产协会重新定位为专注于房地产和基础设施的领先行业组织。

Prior to APREA, she served as Managing Director of Asia Pacific Research and Advisory Services of Cushman & Wakefield (C&W) from 2010 through 2018, where she was responsible for research, thought leadership, strategy formulation and client management.

A recognized expert in global economic, public policy and real estate issues, Sigrid is a frequent speaker at industry events. Her commentary on commercial and residential real estate markets is also regularly featured in a wide array of global publications, including the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Bloomberg, New York Times and Reuters. Additionally, she has made several television appearances on financial networks and radio such as CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, National Public Radio and Channel News Asia.

The Asia Pacific logistics & industrial market continues to perform strongly, underpinned by strong fundamentals – though there is emerging evidence that growth is switching from the investment market to the occupier market.

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