思想領導

Interest in the logistics sector has persisted over the past half-year, and both development and transaction activity have remained strong. That said, the market appears to be entering a period of transition, and there are some concerns that the previously tight balance between demand and supply has already started to loosen.

Although vacancies in Greater Tokyo and Greater Osaka remain moderate overall, average rents experienced a contraction over the past half-year. Furthermore, some existing facilities are reportedly struggling with vacancies, and pre-leasing activity has been sluggish in several new developments.

Indeed, a wave of new supply is forecast over the next few years in both submarkets, and competition for tenants will increase, which is likely to contribute to some upward vacancy movement and revisions in rents. Meanwhile, structural factors also look set to affect confidence in the logistics sector. The ongoing labour shortage continues to increase labour costs for logistics companies, while the increase in construction costs and interest rates are forcing some investors to reconsider acquiring land for development as well as logistics facilities for the meantime.

Nonetheless, the fundamentals in the sector are still strong, and tenant demand will likely persist due to the strong growth potential of the e-commerce industry. Hence, the outlook should remain positive overall for the logistics market going forward.

本報告原刊登於 https://www.savills.co.jp/research_articles/167577/210564-0

With e-commerce penetration moderating and the growth in online sales normalising, at the same time consumers are returning to physical retail stores in great numbers, boosting footfall across many markets in Asia Pacific. Our research finds that an overwhelming majority of consumers in the region still choose to purchase goods using a range of different physical and digital touchpoints, otherwise known as omnichannel.

This Viewpoint identifies the factors driving the return to brick-and-mortar retail and explains how operators of physical stores can adapt and evolve to ensure they stay relevant in the omnichannel world.

While evidence shows that physical stores will remain at the forefront of sales strategies, CBRE believes their role must adapt and evolve to serve omnichannel retail. This evolution will see retail stores shift away from being locations purely where transactions are made, towards becoming hubs that provide comprehensive customer experiences. Investors and landlords must also adjust their strategies to suit changing consumer behaviours and retailers’ preferences.

本報告原刊登於 https://www.cbre.com/insights/viewpoints/optimising-brick-and-mortar-stores-to-serve-omnichannel-retail

Nearly six years after CBRE brought to the fore the aspirations of the millennial generation in terms of how they live, work and spend their money, we went back to the drawing board to track how each generation has evolved since then. Our Live-Work-Shop survey, conducted late last year, polled more than 20,000 people worldwide, from Gen Z to baby boomers. The aim again was to understand how they will live, work and shop in the future, and how the shifting dynamics would impact the real estate they use.

The survey featured around 1,500 respondents from India, and its findings revealed fresh insights for real estate occupiers, developers and investors. We believe these stakeholders can harness our survey findings to make informed decisions and strategies to ensure that our real estate spaces are positioned to meet users’ evolving needs.

本報告原刊登於 https://www.cbre.com/insights/local-response/voices-from-india-how-will-people-live-work-and-shop-in-the-future

CBRE’s 2023 China Investor Intentions Survey was conducted between November 8, 2022, and December 2, 2022. A total of 207 mostly China-based investors participated in the survey, which asked respondents a range of questions regarding their buying appetite and preferred real estate strategies, sectors and markets for 2023.

Pandemic-related uncertainty, geopolitical tension, slower economic growth and weaker leasing fundamentals dampened commercial real estate investment sentiment in China in 2022. Full-year investment volume dropped by 22% y-o-y to RMB 220 billion, while cross-border investment fell by 19% y-o-y to RMB 49 billion. Active sectors included multifamily, science parks and industrial factories, which continued to benefit from the development of a public REIT market.

Respondents’ intentions to “buy more” and “sell more” both dropped in 2023 due to recessionary fears and mounting geopolitical tension, reflecting the mood of caution in the short-term. However, it should be noted that this survey was conducted between November 8, 2022, and December 2, 2022, prior to the government’s unveiling of a 10-point plan signalling a shift away from the zero-covid policy. CBRE expects the relaxation of the zero-covid policy; the release of industrial support policies including the “three arrows”; and the promotion of the platform economy to boost investor sentiment, ensuring actual investment activity eclipses the survey results.

本報告原刊登於 https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/2023-china-investor-intentions-survey

過去十年，亞太房地產市場經歷了迅猛擴張。亞太房地產協會（APREA）在其《2023年亞太市場展望：向前邁進》報告中，與房地產投資信託基金（REIT）的利益相關者舉行了一場研討會，探討了他們在新冠疫情、電子商務、貨幣政策變化、地緣政治以及新的優先事項（ESG）等背景下的業務戰略，以及他們面臨的下一階段挑戰和機遇。.

Enough has been written about the impact of Budget 2023 on REITs and InvITs. Through this piece, Resolut Partners tries to succinctly capture the what, why, and what next of the proposed changes – keeping it germane mainly to global financial investors.

重點總結：

• Distributions out of repayment of debt principal could now be taxed as ‘other income’ – at odds with global standards
• Distributions out of debt repayments through redemption of units not treated as ‘income’, but reduce cost of acquisition – InvIT / REIT Regulations do not permit redemption of units
• Major impact on IRRs as distribution structure of most InvITs factored in distributions through debt repayments
• Changes and policy ambiguity could thwart the growth of REITs / InvITs, which were just about seen as ‘bond proxies’

Rising interest rates are causing buyers to be mindful of the associated costs when transacting a property. For an international buyer, these costs can vary substantially across jurisdictions. Expressed as a percentage of property prices, they range from under 10% in Chinese cities to 35% in Singapore.

In an increasingly competitive market, Singapore’s government has maintained their Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD) at 30% for foreign buyers purchasing any residential property.

In comparison to other regions, North American cities cost of ownership comprises a substantial share of the buying, holding and selling cost of a property. These costs are largely comprised of annual property tax and house insurance.

本報告原刊登於 https://www.savills.com/research_articles/255800/339112-0

過去五年，亞洲在FTSE EPRA/Nareit已開發市場指數（全球最受關注的房地產指數）的份額從2017年的25.0%下降到2022年底的21.0%。這項變更主要歸因於美國房地產投資信託基金（REITs）的成長，進一步將上市房地產投資信託基金的權力平衡轉移到北美，北美在該指數中的份額從2017年的57.1%上升到2022年的64.0%。.

美國房地產投資信託基金（REITs）領域的成長主要得益於經濟結構轉型和股權投資者強勁需求催生的眾多另類房地產板塊。這些另類板塊在富時EPRA/Nareit已開發市場指數美國部分的佔比從2007年的34.0%上升至2017年的47.5%，並在2022年達到55.0%。.

美國上市 REIT 領域的成長非常顯著，以至於像 FTSE 這樣的指數編制者推出了上限指數，限制美國成分股的規模，以避免全球指數越來越被視為‘美國及其他’，從而降低其對投資者的實用性。.

有人可能會問：為什麼亞洲另類房地產投資信託基金（REITs）的成長速度未能跟上美國的成長步伐？事實上，亞洲另類REITs的成長速度甚至超過了美國。儘管亞洲在全球REIT指數中的權重有所下降——從2017年的27.11萬億至2022年的21.01萬億至2022年——但亞洲另類REITs的權重卻從全球指數的2.31萬億至3.8 ...

本文由 CenterSquare Investment Management 亞太區主管兼高級合夥人 Joachim Kehr 撰寫，探討了美國和亞洲另類 REIT 隨著時間的推移而擴張背後的行業，並探索了哪些行業為亞洲另類 REIT 提供了最大的增長潛力，提出了維持這種增長的進一步措施。.

As international container shipping increases, so does the need for more logistics real estate—especially in seaport markets. In this report, CBRE looks at 18 well-established and emerging seaports to understand their capabilities and connections to other ports, as well as how they influence nearby industrial real estate markets.

主要發現：

• Ocean shipping keeps growing—more than 80% of the world’s merchandise trade by volume is seaborne, of which more than half is shipped in ocean containers—driving strong demand for logistics space near seaports.
• E-commerce sales and holding more inventory to guard against supply chain disruptions are also spurring demand for industrial & logistics properties—especially those with strong transportation links to seaports.
• Transportation costs are a paramount consideration in site selection, accounting for 45% to 70% of logistics spend, versus 3% to 6% for fixed facility costs like rent.
• Ongoing risks—including persistent inflation, rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions and pandemic-related disruptions—are prompting companies to reevaluate supply chain strategies and locations.

本報告原刊登於 https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/2022-global-seaport-review

Real estate investors enter 2023 facing a very different investment landscape to the one they encountered at the beginning of 2022. Many property markets were still riding high this time last year. In 2021, they had delivered the strongest returns since before the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC), bouncing back from COVID-19-related weakness on the back of pent-up demand and a particularly buoyant industrial market. As 2022 progressed, however, that pent-up economic demand combined with exogenous supply shocks associated with the Russia-Ukraine war drove inflation to levels not seen in decades.

The future for real estate investing has not been so uncertain since the GFC, and this new environment presents many challenges for investors: Overall deal activity has plummeted as investors pause to reassess the risks they face and underwrite appropriately. While it is clear that sentiment is weak, this pause in activity levels means that pricing evidence is scarce; and for that reason, it will be important to triangulate from a range of data types and sources. Without the tailwind of compressing yields, returns will be driven more by occupier-market fundamentals — which, for office markets, are at a structural turning point. Understanding the interplay of rental growth, occupancy and expenses on delivered income across markets and property types will be key. These factors will be just a selection of the growing number of inputs that may drive asset performance in an increasingly complex investment environment. The ability to attribute risk and performance to a growing number of factors like yield and leasing profile, as well as exposure to more secular risks like climate change, will be increasingly important for investors.

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