思想引领

Interest in the logistics sector has persisted over the past half-year, and both development and transaction activity have remained strong. That said, the market appears to be entering a period of transition, and there are some concerns that the previously tight balance between demand and supply has already started to loosen.

Although vacancies in Greater Tokyo and Greater Osaka remain moderate overall, average rents experienced a contraction over the past half-year. Furthermore, some existing facilities are reportedly struggling with vacancies, and pre-leasing activity has been sluggish in several new developments.

Indeed, a wave of new supply is forecast over the next few years in both submarkets, and competition for tenants will increase, which is likely to contribute to some upward vacancy movement and revisions in rents. Meanwhile, structural factors also look set to affect confidence in the logistics sector. The ongoing labour shortage continues to increase labour costs for logistics companies, while the increase in construction costs and interest rates are forcing some investors to reconsider acquiring land for development as well as logistics facilities for the meantime.

Nonetheless, the fundamentals in the sector are still strong, and tenant demand will likely persist due to the strong growth potential of the e-commerce industry. Hence, the outlook should remain positive overall for the logistics market going forward.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.savills.co.jp/research_articles/167577/210564-0

With e-commerce penetration moderating and the growth in online sales normalising, at the same time consumers are returning to physical retail stores in great numbers, boosting footfall across many markets in Asia Pacific. Our research finds that an overwhelming majority of consumers in the region still choose to purchase goods using a range of different physical and digital touchpoints, otherwise known as omnichannel.

This Viewpoint identifies the factors driving the return to brick-and-mortar retail and explains how operators of physical stores can adapt and evolve to ensure they stay relevant in the omnichannel world.

While evidence shows that physical stores will remain at the forefront of sales strategies, CBRE believes their role must adapt and evolve to serve omnichannel retail. This evolution will see retail stores shift away from being locations purely where transactions are made, towards becoming hubs that provide comprehensive customer experiences. Investors and landlords must also adjust their strategies to suit changing consumer behaviours and retailers’ preferences.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/insights/viewpoints/optimising-brick-and-mortar-stores-to-serve-omnichannel-retail

Nearly six years after CBRE brought to the fore the aspirations of the millennial generation in terms of how they live, work and spend their money, we went back to the drawing board to track how each generation has evolved since then. Our Live-Work-Shop survey, conducted late last year, polled more than 20,000 people worldwide, from Gen Z to baby boomers. The aim again was to understand how they will live, work and shop in the future, and how the shifting dynamics would impact the real estate they use.

The survey featured around 1,500 respondents from India, and its findings revealed fresh insights for real estate occupiers, developers and investors. We believe these stakeholders can harness our survey findings to make informed decisions and strategies to ensure that our real estate spaces are positioned to meet users’ evolving needs.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/insights/local-response/voices-from-india-how-will-people-live-work-and-shop-in-the-future

世邦魏理仕 (CBRE) 于 2022 年 11 月 8 日至 2022 年 12 月 2 日期间开展了 2023 年中国投资者意向调查。共有 207 位主要来自中国的投资者参与了此次调查，调查内容涉及受访者 2023 年的购买意愿以及偏好的房地产策略、行业和市场等一系列问题。.

2022年，受疫情相关不确定性、地缘政治紧张局势、经济增长放缓以及租赁基本面疲软的影响，中国商业地产投资情绪受到抑制。全年投资额同比下降221万亿至2200亿元人民币，跨境投资额同比下降191万亿至490亿元人民币。活跃板块包括多户住宅、科技园区和工业厂房，这些板块继续受益于公开上市房地产投资信托基金（REITs）市场的发展。.

受经济衰退担忧和地缘政治紧张局势加剧的影响，受访者2023年’增加购买“和”增加出售“的意愿均有所下降，反映出短期内市场谨慎的情绪。然而，值得注意的是，本次调查于2022年11月8日至12月2日期间进行，早于政府公布标志着其政策转向”零新冠“政策的十点计划。世邦魏理仕预计，随着”零新冠”政策的放松、包括“三支箭”在内的产业扶持政策的出台以及平台经济的推广，投资者信心将得到提振，实际投资活动将超过调查结果。.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/2023-china-investor-intentions-survey

过去十年，亚太房地产市场经历了迅猛扩张。亚太房地产协会（APREA）在其《2023年亚太市场展望：向前迈进》报告中，与房地产投资信托基金（REIT）的利益相关者举行了一场研讨会，探讨了他们在新冠疫情、电子商务、货币政策变化、地缘政治以及新的优先事项（ESG）等背景下的业务战略，以及他们面临的下一阶段挑战和机遇。.

关于 2023 年预算案对房地产投资信托基金和投资信托基金的影响已经写得够多了。Resolut Partners 试图通过这篇文章，简明扼要地说明拟议变化的内容、原因和下一步行动，并主要针对全球金融投资者。.

要点总结：

• 偿还债务本金后的分红现在可作为 ‘其他收入 ’征税，这与全球标准不符
• 通过赎回基金单位偿还债务所得的分配款不被视为 ‘收入’，但会降低购置成本 - 《投资信托基金/房地产投资信托基金条例》不允许赎回基金单位
• 对内部收益率的影响很大，因为大多数投资信托基金的分配结构通过偿还债务将分配考虑在内
• 变化和政策的模糊性可能会阻碍房地产投资信托基金/投资信托基金的发展，它们几乎被视为 ‘债券的替代品’。’

利率上升使得购房者在进行房产交易时更加关注相关成本。对于国际买家而言，这些成本在不同地区可能存在显著差异。以房产价格的百分比表示，这些成本从中国城市的不到10%到新加坡的35%不等。.

在竞争日益激烈的市场中，新加坡政府对外国买家购买任何住宅物业的额外买家印花税 (ABSD) 维持在 30%。.

与其他地区相比，北美城市的房产持有成本在房产的购买、持有和出售总成本中占比很高。这些成本主要包括年度房产税和房屋保险。.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.savills.com/research_articles/255800/339112-0

过去五年，亚洲在FTSE EPRA/Nareit发达市场指数（全球最受关注的房地产指数）中的份额从2017年的25.0%下降到2022年底的21.0%。这一变化主要归因于美国房地产投资信托基金（REITs）的增长，进一步将上市房地产投资信托基金的权力平衡转移到北美，北美在该指数中的份额从2017年的57.1%上升到2022年的64.0%。.

美国房地产投资信托基金（REITs）领域的增长主要得益于经济结构转型和股权投资者强劲需求催生的众多另类房地产板块。这些另类板块在富时EPRA/Nareit发达市场指数美国部分的占比从2007年的34.0%上升至2017年的47.5%，并在2022年达到55.0%。.

美国上市 REIT 领域的增长非常显著，以至于像 FTSE 这样的指数编制者推出了上限指数，限制美国成分股的规模，以避免全球指数越来越被视为‘美国及其他’，从而降低其对投资者的实用性。.

有人可能会问：为什么亚洲另类房地产投资信托基金（REITs）的增长速度未能跟上美国的增长步伐？事实上，亚洲另类REITs的增长速度甚至超过了美国。尽管亚洲在全球REIT指数中的权重有所下降——从2017年的27.11万亿至2022年的21.01万亿至2022年——但亚洲另类REITs的权重却从全球指数的2.31万亿至3.8 ...

本文由 CenterSquare Investment Management 亚太区主管兼高级合伙人 Joachim Kehr 撰写，探讨了美国和亚洲另类 REIT 随着时间的推移而扩张背后的行业，并探索了哪些行业为亚洲另类 REIT 提供了最大的增长潜力，提出了维持这种增长的进一步措施。.

As international container shipping increases, so does the need for more logistics real estate—especially in seaport markets. In this report, CBRE looks at 18 well-established and emerging seaports to understand their capabilities and connections to other ports, as well as how they influence nearby industrial real estate markets.

主要发现：

• Ocean shipping keeps growing—more than 80% of the world’s merchandise trade by volume is seaborne, of which more than half is shipped in ocean containers—driving strong demand for logistics space near seaports.
• E-commerce sales and holding more inventory to guard against supply chain disruptions are also spurring demand for industrial & logistics properties—especially those with strong transportation links to seaports.
• Transportation costs are a paramount consideration in site selection, accounting for 45% to 70% of logistics spend, versus 3% to 6% for fixed facility costs like rent.
• Ongoing risks—including persistent inflation, rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions and pandemic-related disruptions—are prompting companies to reevaluate supply chain strategies and locations.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/2022-global-seaport-review

Real estate investors enter 2023 facing a very different investment landscape to the one they encountered at the beginning of 2022. Many property markets were still riding high this time last year. In 2021, they had delivered the strongest returns since before the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC), bouncing back from COVID-19-related weakness on the back of pent-up demand and a particularly buoyant industrial market. As 2022 progressed, however, that pent-up economic demand combined with exogenous supply shocks associated with the Russia-Ukraine war drove inflation to levels not seen in decades.

The future for real estate investing has not been so uncertain since the GFC, and this new environment presents many challenges for investors: Overall deal activity has plummeted as investors pause to reassess the risks they face and underwrite appropriately. While it is clear that sentiment is weak, this pause in activity levels means that pricing evidence is scarce; and for that reason, it will be important to triangulate from a range of data types and sources. Without the tailwind of compressing yields, returns will be driven more by occupier-market fundamentals — which, for office markets, are at a structural turning point. Understanding the interplay of rental growth, occupancy and expenses on delivered income across markets and property types will be key. These factors will be just a selection of the growing number of inputs that may drive asset performance in an increasingly complex investment environment. The ability to attribute risk and performance to a growing number of factors like yield and leasing profile, as well as exposure to more secular risks like climate change, will be increasingly important for investors.

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