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ストラタオフィス市場の見通し

•  2021年、シンガポールの分譲オフィス市場は、より大規模なオフィスセクターと同様に、引き続き厳しい状況が続くと予想されます。これは、パンデミック後の時代において、リモートワークのプロトコルが進化する中で、企業がスペースの占有方法を厳しく見直そうとしていることが背景にあります。そのため、取引量と価格は少なくとも年初6ヶ月間は低迷すると予想されます。.
• しかしながら、オフィス利用者がスペース要件を合理化し適正化するにつれて、小規模企業などのテナントは、テナントスペースに代わる現実的な選択肢として、オーナーが入居するストラタオフィスに目を向けるようになる可能性があります。そのため、ストラタオフィス、特に都心部に位置するストラタオフィスの需要は、2021年後半に改善する可能性があります。.

ストラタ小売市場の見通し

• 今後、ワクチンの配布が進んでいるにもかかわらず、他国での感染再拡大により、世界経済の見通しは依然として不透明です。また、ワクチンの配布が成功したとしても、シンガポールの分譲住宅の価格は低迷すると予想されます。観光客の減少と安全な距離確保措置の継続により、売却価格の下落が予想されます。.
• このような分譲住宅の需要は、自ら事業を営むことを希望し、分譲住宅型商業施設が一般的に立地する場所に店舗を構えることを好む経営者から生まれると予想されます。多くの場合、同じ場所にある一流ショッピングモールで店舗スペースを借りるよりもコストが低いことが、最大の誘因となります。.
• したがって、小売市場がより体験的な場所づくり戦略へと傾倒し、一部のサービスをデジタル プラットフォームに移行するにつれて、階層型小売店のオーナーも同様の方法を採用して、絶えず変化する市場で生き残る必要が高まっています。.

2020 was a challenging year for Philippine real estate and the global property market, but we see the new year as a promising time for sectors such as industrial & logistics, office, residential, REITs, and data centers, among others. The industrial & logistics sector was the most stable asset class in the past year, and there are huge opportunities in the e-commerce and the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. The office sector is likely to perform better than 2020, while we anticipate residential real estate to exhibit a slow but gradual rebound.

In 2021, macrotrends such as the boom of e-commerce, flexible office setups, and continued decentralization outside Metro Manila
are likely to continue and contribute to the property market’s soft recovery.

The Philippine population, which has grown at 1.5% on average each year since 2015, is key to recovery. This growth has created a “demographic sweet spot” and continues to drive consumption and, in particular, the expansion of online retail and the related logistics platforms. The young Philippine population will also continue to keep the country at the forefront of the global BPO industry as outsourcing continues to increase.

Global Economy

• Global growth estimated to decline by 3.5% in 2020 but expected to rise by 5.5% in 2021
• Advanced economies likely to grow by 4.3% in 2021 on the back of the early rollout of vaccines
• Emerging economies are expected to grow by 6.3% in 2021 on the back of a contracted base

Indian Economy 

• India’s GDP growth for FY21 is estimated to decline by 7.7%, hit by the global pandemic and the lockdown
• Private consumption estimated to contract by 9.5% in FY21 based on income loss, mobility restrictions, and supply constraints
• Government consumption estimated to rise by 5.8% due to increased expenditure as part of pandemic relief packages.
• Investment estimated to decline by 14.5% due to economic uncertainty and delay in implementation of capital projects

見通し 

• Consumption indicators, including FMCG, auto sales, and GST collection indicate a faster demand recovery in Q3
• Continued momentum post-pandemic in health, pharma, telecom, and technology (e-commerce, fintech, ed-tech, etc.) owing to a significant shift in consumption patterns
• The pandemic has led to a preference for digital services and adoption of digitalisation in many companies
• GDP is estimated to grow at 11% in FY22 owing to robust growth in consumption and investment and lower base effect

The pandemic has induced behavioural changes amongst consumers that are likely to stay permanent. This has hit the physical retail and F&B sectors hardest and the industry has to be quick to adapt to this new reality in order to nurture the sector back to recovery, albeit in an evolved form.

Footfall numbers will be hard-pressed to return to pre-COVID levels so long as the need to social distance is enforced. The takeaway channel is therefore vital. With incomes falling and unemployment rising, food delivery companies are seeing a decline in activity from the peaks witnessed in the months of April and May. Parents are telling their children now not to order frivolously. Footfall ebbs and flows with some days seeing much greater activity than others (same as our office – some days we have 30% of the workers back while for most of the time, it’s just 15% to 20%). It is difficult to predict the daily flow these days. Whenever helicopter money is disbursed by the government, the crowd emerges in the suburbs. But give it about 10 days and the patronage falls back to pre-payout levels.

The points highlighted above are summarised in the following heatmaps. Table 1A and 1B show the heatmap of revenues by broad tenant types in CBD and Suburban locations. These are the findings obtained after spending weeks soliciting feedback from various retail and F&B operators plus plying the grounds to weed off the weekend-weekday effects.