思想領導

The retail sector is considered a core asset class in the Indian real estate industry. Currently, it is recovering from the toughest business climate it has ever experienced due to the pandemic. Retailers, developers, and investors are taking cautious steps while delving into the segment, owing to 2 main factors – the e-commerce onslaught, and higher digital adoption among consumers.

There was a strong return to malls after restrictions were lifted. Revenues and footfalls of mall developers and retailers have largely recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

Cushman & Wakefield’s latest report on a new journey for retail realty addresses:

Rebound – Retail real estate’s current story
Revenge – As pandemic fears recede, a shopping culture has emerged
Re-Invent – Retailers and mall developers consider the adoption of digital & analytics and tech integrations

To read more about the journey of the retail sector of India’s real estate, read the report: Rebound, Revenge & Re-Invent.

Confidence in Asia Pacific’s Hotels & Hospitality market continues to grow as borders reopen and operating performance recovers to pre-pandemic levels.

The recovery continues to be largely driven by domestic demand, with international arrivals accelerating in markets within the Pacific and Southeast Asia, which have loosened entry and quarantine restrictions and are now open to all arrivals. CBRE forecasts tourism arrivals within the region to reach pre-pandemic levels by 2024, with hotels performance to reach 2019 levels in the same period.

Furthermore, given the daily pricing structure and flexibility of rate changes in an evolving economic climate, hotels provide an inflationary hedge. CBRE is therefore forecasting increased investor appetite for operational real estate, such as hotels, as a strategy to enhance and/or maintain portfolio returns.

本報告原刊登於 https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/2022-asia-pacific-hotels-and-hospitality-a-roadmap-to-recovery

This report, Part II in Cushman & Wakefield’s Reset 2022 trilogy, brings together the views of a panel of institutional investors as shared during the webinar “Unlocking Strategy in a Changing Environment”.

The analysis in this report draws upon these views along with live audience polling conducted during the webinar and the results of an investor intention survey conducted over approximately three weeks in August 2022.

View the replay of the webinar Read the summary of the webinar

Rising inflation, zero-covid policies in mainland China and ongoing supply chain bottlenecks are just a few of the headwinds that continue to cloud the operating environment for occupiers of commercial real estate in Asia Pacific.

As slowing GDP growth prompts many companies to tighten their belts, CBRE’s recent surveys of office, retail and logistics tenants, along with wide-ranging discussions with corporate clients, have uncovered several common themes in how occupiers are adapting and responding to these challenges.

The seven key trends we expect to influence occupier portfolio strategy and leasing demand over the remainder of the year and into 2023 are as follows:

• A mild global recession
• Continued cautious expansion
• Ongoing flight to quality
• Rising fit-out costs
• A shortage of talent
• Building resilience
• Investing in technology

本報告原刊登於 https://www.cbre.com/insights/briefs/asia-pacific-occupier-trends—concerns-priorities-and-strategies-ahead

在 Colliers Hotel Insights | 2022 年第二季中，我們將探討以下問題：

• 第二季亞太地區的 RevPAR 與 ADR 表現
• 新加坡飯店市場的復甦，包括供應展望
• 投資於飯店資產的理由及建議投資者的策略

2022 年已過了兩個季度，COVID-19 之後的旅遊世界已經開始成形。全球各地的旅行限制繼續大量減少，截至 2022 年 3 月底，航空交通量已達到 69% 的 COVID（2019 年）前水平。根據國際航空運輸協會 (IATA) 的最新預測，航空交通量預計將於 2024 年超越 COVID 前的水平。推動這些機位需求的將是國內和不斷增加的遊客，根據聯合國世界旅遊組織的預測，到 2023 年底，某些地區的旅遊抵達人次將超過 2019 年的水平。.

商務和團體旅遊曾一度被視為厄運的先兆，但現在看來，親自見面的慾望再次勝出，休閒 (主要是探訪親友)、會議和活動旅遊帶領了旅遊業的復甦。.

然而，逆風再一次威脅著我們。無論是無時不在的致命變種復發威脅、高通脹、勞動力瓶頸和生活成本增加，都意味著可支配收入減少。問題是，旅行的慾望是否會超越儲蓄的需求，進而抑制經濟復甦，至少在短期內是如此。.

就酒店業績而言，亞洲各地的客房入住率增至 48.5%，ADR 增至 US$83.69，RevPAR 回升 12.3%。然而，較為開放的南方國家與封閉的北方地區之間仍存在極大的差異，尤其是中國在可預見的未來仍處於封閉狀態。.

本報告原刊登於 https://www.colliers.com/en-hk/research/2022-q2-hospitality-insights-colliers

精益供應鏈的核心是存貨優化和卓越營運。它的目標是消除生產和配送過程中每個階段的浪費，因此也有了 「持續流動 」和 「及時 」等額外的術語。精益供應鏈的關鍵目標是庫存管理的最佳化，而不是最小化，而且由於其著重於一致性和可重複性，精益供應鏈的設計可以說靈活性較低。因此，有些人認為這種類型的網路與紛亂的世界毫無關係 - 敏捷性才是王道。然而，事實並非如此。.

Cushman & Wakefield 的最新報告、, 讓精實供應鏈在大流行後的世界中保持相關性, 本書探討供應鏈產業的主要趨勢，強調優化供應鏈網路的重要性，並以精實供應鏈為重點，並說明精實供應鏈如何持續發揮作用。. 

本報告原刊登於 https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/insights/supply-chain-network-design-optimisation

2019 was a record year for commercial real estate, the office market was at an all-time high with positive sentiments from both occupiers and developers. However, the disruption induced by the COVID-19 pandemic brought the rise to a complete standstill.

Post the second wave in 2021, demand for quality spaces began to rise swiftly and steadily, with occupiers taking utmost advantage of tenant-favorable commercial terms. This trend continues to build up in Q2 2022, despite certain challenges.

The 5 Trigger Points of Commercial Real Estate focuses on fundamental aspects that are silently working to strengthen the recovery and sustain the rise of commercial real estate.

本報告原刊登於 https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/india/insights/five-trigger-points-for-commercial-real-estate

Responses from real estate investors in Japan were compiled in this survey. The responses include their expected returns, investment outlook, and rental growth. Surveyed firms include asset managers, securitization developers, life insurance, commercial banks and other financial institutions, investment banks, pension funds, and real estate leasing.

Cushman & Wakefield 最近發佈了 “Office of the Future Revisited”（未來辦公空間再探）報告，從全球角度分析了辦公空間的需求和使用正在發生的變化。報告中提出了三個現實：

1.辦公空間的需求正在加速增長；;

2.混合動力將會持續發展；以及

3.辦公室的角色已經改變。.

亞太地區幅員廣大且文化多元，雖然上述三項現實對亞太地區來說都是真實的，但我們也看到這些現實在不同市場之間的細微差異。.

• 亞太地區辦公室需求持續領先全球
• 然而，當考慮到向混合型工作方式的轉變時，本區域在某程度上落後了。
• 由於不斷成長的年輕員工所帶來的壓力日益增加，因此需要提供更完善的變革管理。
• 由於不同市場之間存在細微差異，因此解決方案和方法也需要因地而異。
• 企業雇主現在就應該開始測試和試行，以滿足目前和未來勞動力的需求

本報告原刊登於 https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/insights/apac-office-of-the-future-revisited

• 與大流行病相關的邊境管制、中國大陸的零滯留政策、全球航運成本上升以及能源價格上漲，都將在 2022 年繼續對東南亞供應鏈造成壓力，而且很可能在 2022 年之後。.
• 隨著佔用者透過加強供應鏈的應變能力，並尋求在「適時」與「適當」庫存模式之間取得平衡，對現代化倉庫的新需求將大幅成長。.
• 製造商將生產從中國大陸遷移到鄰近市場的多個基地，而東盟經濟體將成為明顯的贏家。.
• 隨著 RCEP 和其他自由貿易協定的生效，東南亞市場與其主要貿易夥伴之間的關稅將大幅下降，這將有利於出口增長，並增加其在全球供應鏈中的角色和重要性，從而刺激更多的房地產需求。該地區電子商務產業的持續增長也將繼續推動倉庫需求。.
• 除了住戶需求興旺外，東南亞製造業與物流房地產的投資也將加速，已開發市場的機會可能著重於發展機構級物流股，以搭上當地消費市場成長的順風車，以及東南亞在全球價值鏈中日益重要的地位。.

本報告原刊登於 https://apacresearch.cbre.com/en/research-and-reports/Asia-Pacific-ViewPoint–Prolonged-Supply-Chain-Disruption-to-Accelerate-Southeast-Asian-Logistics-Re