思想引领

OFFICE RENTS BOTTOM OUT IN Q3 2021

Rents and occupancy

• Prime Grade office rents in the Raffles Place / Marina Bay precinct grew for the first time since Q4 2019, with rents rising by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) to S$9.98 per square foot per month (psf pm). Office rents turned a corner and bottomed out in Q3 2021 as occupancy rates for prime offices in the precinct remained relatively stable, falling marginally by 0.7 percentage points (pp) q-o-q to 93.6%, a slight reversal from the 0.1 pp growth recorded in Q2 2021.
• In tandem with the firm signs of improvement in the office rental market, the volume of pre-termination space available fell 78.9% q-o-q in Q3 2021, declining empathically from the 360,000-sf estimate in Q2 2021 to some 76,000 sf in Q3 2021. The decrease in shadow space was expected as the flight-to-quality continued with corporates taking advantage of the rare opportunity to snap up premium spaces in prime buildings that were normally fully occupied, before rents start to increase significantly.

本文最初发表于 https://www.knightfrank.com/

The Asia Pacific logistics sector has performed resiliently since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic on the back of accelerating e-commerce penetration, the development of omnichannel retail and the evolution of supply chain strategies for sourcing and inventory locations.

With logistics growth momentum showing no signs of slowing, CBRE recently conducted its first ever Asia Pacific Logistics Occupier Survey to identify the trends set to impact the sector in the coming years and help formulate strategies for occupiers and investors pursuing long-term sustainable growth.

The report identifies occupier optimism towards prospects for business growth; outlines the appropriate strategies for occupiers seeking to optimise their portfolios and operations; and profiles the next generation of logistics facilities. It also analyses the implications and opportunities for occupiers and investors seeking to increase their exposure to Asia Pacific logistics real estate.

本文最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/

Despite rapid growth in inbound demand in recent years driven by a sharp increase in overseas visitors, Japan’s retail and hotel markets remain overwhelmingly driven by domestic demand.

Therefore, while a recovery in inbound tourism is still some time away, Japan can be said to have rapid recovery potential, should domestic demand return.

CBRE believes the return of domestic demand is imminent, with pent-up demand steadily accumulating due to restrained consumption and various benefits and incentives provided by the government. 

This demand is likely to materialise in the form of consumption for higher-end goods and services, trends that auger well for Japan’s retail and hotel sectors, especially the higher-end segments.

本文最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/

H 1 2021 transaction volumes were close to the six monthly average observed over the past five years

Office and industrial sales lead the New Zealand market The top three largest sales above 100 million were office assets

Vacant land/development sites show a lift in sales volumes

Singapore based investors were the most active of the offshore groups, with a smaller proportion of investment by Malaysian and Australian buyers

Investment activity is dominated by private buyers 52 followed by institutions 34 and syndicates 7 However, privates are net sellers, while institutions and syndicates are net buyers

本文最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/

• 与过去三个季度平均推出超过 3,500 套住宅单元相比，开发商放慢了速度，2021 年第二季度共推出了 2,356 套私人住宅单元。.
• 由于新车型上市数量减少，2021 年第二季度新车总销量环比下降 15.1%，至 2,966 辆。.
• 第二季度二手车市场销售势头持续回升，转售总量环比增长 19.01 TP3T，创下 5,483 辆的新纪录。.
• 市区重建局（URA）第二季度住宅物业价格指数环比上涨0.81万亿港元，较第一季度环比上涨3.31万亿港元有所放缓。这主要是因为有地住宅价格结束了短暂的上涨势头，环比下跌0.31万亿港元，而非有地住宅价格在第二季度环比涨幅也放缓至1.11万亿港元。.
• 第二季度，Savills 高端非有地私人住宅项目的平均价格环比也温和上涨 0.4%，达到每平方英尺 2,434 新元。.
• 除非中国恒大出现严重的传染事件，否则预计 2021 年价格将同比上涨 5.5%，2022 年将再上涨 5%。.

本文最初发表于 https://www.savills.com/

As residential prices increase across the world, so too do transaction volumes. Commercial residential transactions for multifamily increased to the largest sector by investment volumes, at 28% of all transactions, overtaking offices for the first time in the first half of 2021. End-user residential also returned to pre-pandemic transaction levels nearly as soon as property markets reopened. The strength of residential property markets shows that home isn’t just where the heart is. 

Global real estate investment underwent a major shift in the first half of 2021 as the multifamily residential sector overtook offices to become the largest sector globally for the first time since records began in 2007, when considering deals over $2.5 million. Over the first six months of 2021, $136 billion was invested in residential, 35% higher than the same period in 2020 and 4.1% higher than office transaction volumes. Growth was driven by the global interest in the strong fundamentals for the residential sector. Many locations remain severely undersupplied for appropriate housing, particularly to meet the demand from younger people moving to urban centres.

In the end-user residential market, there were converging factors driving increased transaction volumes in many locations. From the race for space to the shift to working from home, many buyers globally decided that their current homes weren’t working for them. As soon as they were able, buyers made the choice to move to new properties, assisted by record low interest rates and government support for property markets. Across the 15 cities analysed for this article, 80% of the locations have seen transaction volumes above 2019 figures. 

A significant number of properties that transacted were purchased by mortgaged homeowners as price growth squeezed out first-time buyers while boosting the buying power of current owners. Roughly 45% of UK new buyers put their plans to buy on hold in 2020, as Covid-19 landed a double blow of rising house prices and constrained personal finances. The number of first home buyers taking out new home loans in Australia dropped to its lowest level in eight months in June 2021 to 13,869, though the number of home loans for all owner-occupiers fell in June as well, as Australia battles a new wave of Covid-19. 

本文最初发表于 https://www.savills.com/

电动汽车会改变汽车世界吗？

电动汽车（EV）正在稳步融入我们的交通结构。根据国际能源机构（IEA）的数据，目前全球道路上行驶的电动汽车已超过 1000 万辆，预计到 2030 年将超过 1.25 亿辆。从 2010 年到 2020 年，电池的成本已经下降到原来价格的近十分之一，到 2030 年还会再下降一半，这只会加速电动汽车的普及。.

本文最初发表于 https://www.savills.com/

提供价格合理且有趣的工作空间对于确保城市处于科技和创意产业的前沿至关重要，从而吸引国内外人才。.

长期以来，价格低廉的城市边缘办公场所一直有助于促进经济增长和创造就业机会，为创业者和创意人士在创业初期提供空间。然而，随着近年来全球大多数主要城市办公成本的飙升，许多初创企业迈向“置业阶梯”的第一步如今已不复存在。新冠疫情也使居家办公在许多地区成为常态，这意味着初创企业、创意人士和创业者需要激励措施才能重返城市。.

这不仅仅是企业寻找经济适用办公空间的问题：世界各地的城市都受益于初创企业、艺术机构和社会企业租户为曾经破败不堪、无人问津的地区带来的活力和生机。然而，随着开发商、投资者和高薪租户被这些租户所创造的活力所吸引，他们往往最先被不断上涨的租金挤出局。. 

成功吸引并留住创意人才的城市通常拥有较低的办公成本。例如，柏林凭借其低廉的租金（尽管租金快速上涨，但柏林的平均租金仍比伦敦或纽约低301万亿欧元）、浓厚的创意氛围以及对本地艺术家的支持体系而蓬勃发展。创意产业目前占柏林经济总量的101万亿欧元，自2009年以来创造了约6.7万个就业岗位。.  

本文最初发表于 https://www.savills.com/

2020年，全球房地产总值达到$326.5万亿美元，较2019年增长5%亿美元，创历史新高。其中，住宅地产是增长的主要驱动力，住宅地产是迄今为止最大的房地产板块，占全球房地产总值的79%亿美元。其价值在2020年增长了8%亿美元，达到约$258.5万亿美元。.

房地产是世界上最重要的财富储存形式，其价值超过全球所有股票和债券的总和，几乎是全球GDP的四倍。相比之下，迄今为止开采的所有黄金的总价值仅为12.1万亿英镑，而全球房地产的价值却高达413万亿英镑。.

本文最初发表于 https://www.savills.com/

租户咨询量没有变化，但随着 COVID-19 防控措施的重新实施，现场参观次数有所下降，尤其是在澳大利亚、东南亚和日本。.

灵活办公空间的需求持续下降，但对传统办公空间的需求却有所增加。.  

本月租金有所上涨，主要受中国大陆、新加坡和印度的市场推动。在此期间，政府加大激励力度的压力增大，尤其是在中国大陆和印度。.

大多数市场的情绪有所增强或保持稳定，其中中国大陆和印度表现最为强劲。.

本文最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/