市场前景

With new demand continuing to be led by the technology sector, tightening vacancy to 5.0% from 5.2% in Q4 2020, Colliers recommend occupiers to lock in leases early as rents hit an inflection point. Owners should redevelop older properties into mixed-use developments to unlock value.

报告要点：

• CBD Grade A rents stabilised at SGD9.54 per sq ft (-0.3%QOQ) in Q1 2021, as net absorption turned positive after two consecutive quarters of contraction.
• New demand continued to be led bythe technology sector, tightening vacancy to 5.0% from 5.2% in Q4 2020.
• Total office or mixed office investment volumes rose 13.9% YOY to SGD850 million in Q1 2021, as confidence returned with the global vaccine roll-out. 

制造业推动工业部门反弹

• 根据贸工部（MTI）的数据，2020 年第四季度新加坡经济同比萎缩 2.4%，使 2020 年整体经济增长的总变化为负 5.4%。在 COVID-19 年，制造业的弹性在缓解经济下滑方面发挥了巨大作用，电子、生物医学制造和精密工程集群的产出大幅增长。.

• 由于目前全球芯片短缺，对电子产品的需求居高不下。而新加坡作为半导体的主要生产国，工业领域的芯片制造商可能不得不扩建现有设施，以提高产量。.

• 2021 年 3 月，新加坡采购经理指数（PMI）为 50.8，为 2019 年 3 月以来的最高值。制造商的乐观情绪在 1 月和 2 月盛行，采购经理人指数分别为 50.7 和 50.5，表明 2021 年工业部门可能会继续增长。.

Recommendations and Insights 

We expect office rents and prices to remain under pressure in H1 2021 before bottoming out mid-year, followed by a more stable H2 before rebounding again from 2022 onwards, assuming that Covid is under control within the first half of 2021. We believe that now is a good time for buyers to explore opportunities in the strata-title office sector:

• End-users with long term real estate needs should explore acquisition options, as office prices and rents could rebound quickly in core locations once the market recovers.
• Investors pursuing office sector exposure in Hong Kong, but had previously found it too expensive, should seize this window of opportunity to enter the market.
• Investors looking for offices with smaller lumpsum transaction values should consider areas in Kowloon, which offers more options and attractive pricing.

新冠疫情在全球范围内造成了前所未有的冲击。在亚太地区，为遏制疫情蔓延而采取的措施也导致了自大萧条以来最严重的经济衰退，主要经济体十多年来首次出现萎缩。尽管这场危机可能持续数年，但该地区的长期增长基本面依然稳固。.

受人口结构利好因素的推动，亚太地区的城市化进程正经历着一场史诗般的繁荣，这将带动中产阶级的壮大，并由此开启消费循环。实物资产是该地区结构性大趋势的重要组成部分，这些趋势将在疫情结束后继续存在。随着挑战逐渐从疫情控制转向长期复苏，基础设施投资和房地产投资信托基金（REITs）在这一进程中扮演着至关重要的角色，它们能够加速该地区从疫情中复苏，并确保其经济未来。.

新加坡商业联合会推出了《新加坡零售场所租赁行为准则》（以下简称“《准则》"）。“COC“）于 2021 年 3 月 26 日生效。条例》旨在为合资格零售物业的业主和租户提供一套指引，以便在租赁谈判中采取公平和平衡的立场，并为这些业主和租户提供一个治理框架，确保他们遵守无障碍争议解决框架。.

标准守则》自 2021 年 6 月 1 日起生效，预计政府将与利益相关方密切合作，将守则转化为法律。本更新概述了《标准守则》的主要特点和原则。.

新加坡商业联合会推出了《新加坡零售场所租赁行为准则》（以下简称“《准则》"）。“COC“）于 2021 年 3 月 26 日生效。条例》旨在为合资格零售物业的业主和租户提供一套指引，以便在租赁谈判中采取公平和平衡的立场，并为这些业主和租户提供一个治理框架，确保他们遵守无障碍争议解决框架。.

标准守则》自 2021 年 6 月 1 日起生效，预计政府将与利益相关方密切合作，将守则转化为法律。本更新概述了《标准守则》的主要特点和原则。.

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As governments across the world begin to ramp up their vaccination plans, travel will return. We do anticipate some caution in the near term as borders reopen and the mechanism to facilitate mass travel is formalised.

While there will be changes and more emphasis on factors such as hygiene, our inherent wanderlust, relatively cheap cost of travel and pent-up demand will drive our prediction of a V-shaped recovery for the sector over the next three to four years.

In Colliers Hotel Insights | Q1 2021, we look at:

• The outlook for hotels in Asia Pacific in 2021
• Hotel market in Melbourne, Australia
• Hotel market in Singapore
• An update on the casino gaming sector

Logistics warehouses and hi-specs space to be bright spots

Singapore’s industrial property market was relatively resilient in 2020 with the JTC rental and price index declining 1.5% YOY and 2.7% YOY, respectively. Q4 2020 witnessed a recovery, which could continue into 2021, as the economy rebounds. We forecast warehouse rents to rise 1.3% YOY, while factory rents could stay flat on ample supply.

Demand for business park and hi-spec spaces should be supported by the thriving technology sector and biomedical manufacturing. Overall occupancy improved 0.7 ppt in 2020 to 89.9%, driven by warehouses on increased stockpiling and e-commerce activities. We recommend landlords adopt Industry 4.0 and remodel 

Retail property market expected to stabilize and recover gradually after COVID-19

Average Orchard Road and Regional Centre rents declined 2.5% in H2 2020, bringing the full year decline to 7.2% as net absorption hit a record low. We expect demand in 2021 to turn positive as the economy reopens.

Retail transactions fell 29.5% YOY in 2020, while capital values declined 5% given disrupted income. We expect capital values to remain flat in 2021.

Download Colliers’ bi-annual report on the retail sector in Singapore for H2 2020, as we analyse the latest trends and market outlook, with expert recommendations for retailers, landlords and investors.

Industrial market sees recovery

Industrial activity was observed to be relatively robust as strata sales and vacancy rates improve gradually but uncertainties remain.

In Q4/2020, the economy contracted by 2.4% YoY, moderating from the 5.8% contraction in Q3/2020. This was largely attributed to the 10.3% YoY expansion in the manufacturing sector, extending the 11% growth in Q3. The growth was led by output expansion in the electronics, biomedical manufacturing, precision engineering and chemicals cluster. Nevertheless, the COVID-19 pandemic still took a toll with Singapore’s economy contracting by 5.4% in 2020, a reversal from the 1.3% expansion in 2019. However, the manufacturing sector posted growth of 7.3%, in contrast to the 1.5% contraction in 2019. This was supported by expansion in the biomedical manufacturing, electronics and precision engineering clusters, arising from strong demand for pharmaceutical products, semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment respectively. With the pickup in manufacturing demand following the reopening of the economy, the manufacturing sector ended on a positive note in 2020. In December, the overall Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) remained in expansionary mode for a sixth straight month. Similarly, manufacturing output grew by 14.3% YoY in December, bringing overall growth to 7.3% in 2020. The expansion in December was supported by the electronics, chemicals and precision engineering. On the other hand, after an increase of 6.5% in Q3/2020, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) recorded a 0.5% YoY decline in Q4/2020. Nevertheless, NODX expanded by 4.3% in 2020, a reversal from the 9.2% drop in 2019. Despite global economic uncertainties, the overall growth in 2020 was led by increased shipments of electronics and non-electronics products.

Whilst the consumption tax hike enacted in October created some unease during the final months of 2019, there was plenty of encouragement heading into the new decade. Indeed, with the Tokyo Olympics on the horizon, property sectors exposed to inbound tourism were particularly upbeat. All the while, the relative stability of Japan’s political and economic landscape continued to appeal to investors. This optimism quickly faded amid the onset of COVID-19, however, and one of Japan’s longest post-war economic expansions was stopped in its tracks. Whilst the country has managed the virus relatively well, a somewhat long road to recovery is expected given its modest potential GDP growth rate. 

As for sector performance, the suspension of international travel has completely reversed the fortunes of the previously encouraging retail and hospitality sectors. In contrast, the structural changes brought on by the proliferation of e-commerce has thrust the logistics sector into the spotlight. Both the residential and office sectors, meanwhile, are going through some significant changes, and these varying reactions to the pandemic are also echoed in the J-REIT markets. Specifically, a recent correction in logistics-focused J-REITs notwithstanding, likely in response to the sector overheating, premiums remain significantly higher than its peers. Concurrently, the stark contrast between hard assets and listed vehicles, may reflect different views on sector prospects or give arbitrage opportunities to shrewd investors.