• While there were still companies such as those from the technology sector looking to expand their operations, other tenants are in the process of contemplating ‘rightsizing’ as they adopt remote working practices.
• Leasing activity also came from tenants looking for replacement space as they are being forced to move from older buildings slated for redevelopment later this year. Moreover, due to the construction delays in upcoming new buildings, tenants with expiring leases in the near term may renew their leases or look for alternative space now.
• Sentiment amongst landlords of Grade A offi ces has been bolstered by delays in new supply, more workers returning to offi ces as limits on remote working measures get lifted and a healthy offi ce investment market.
• The overall vacancy rate in Savills basket of CBD Grade A offi ce buildings continued to increase for a fourth straight quarter by 0.3 of a percentage point (ppt) to 7.3% in Q1/2021.
• In Q1/2021, although the URA’s offi ce rental index for the Central Region showed a 3.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) increase, the average monthly rent in Savills basket of CBD Grade A offi ces fell for a fi fth consecutive quarter, albeit at a moderated pace of 1.2% QoQ, to S$9.41 per sq ft. We maintain our -5% YoY rental forecast.
要点总结
Manufacturing property as an asset class is rising in importance as more new or rejuvenated production locations outside of China emerge, with transactions of manufacturing assets growing 19% p.a. since 2011.
In the logistics sector, online grocery sales – the fastest-growing category of online retail sales in Asia Pacific – is predicted to rise 30% p.a., driving demand for last mile delivery facilities.
Most major regional economies continue to make steady progress after a devastating 2020 and ‘reform and recovery’ should emerge as the key themes of the year. While a smooth transition to normality is not assured (as India has shown) a pick-up in transactions volumes suggests a growing confidence among regional real estate investors as Asia continues to outpace both Europe and the US.
资本市场
随着经济复苏势头增强，新加坡2021年第一季度房地产投资额初步环比增长11.51万亿卢比，达到4万亿卢比（35.23亿美元）。.
办公室
受低空置率的支撑，A级（核心CBD）写字楼市场租金下跌趋势在经历了四个季度的调整后止跌回升。相反，B级写字楼市场空置率居高不下，租金进一步下跌。.
商业园区
2021年第一季度，商业园区市场表现略有疲软。净吸纳量为负值，这主要是由于城市边缘子市场的影响。.
零售
黄金地段零售物业租金下跌速度有所放缓。业主对租金预期依然保持灵活态度。.
住宅
住宅市场的强劲表现进一步提振了购房者的信心，并促进了新楼盘的销售。.
工业的
2021年第一季度租赁活动保持稳定，但较上一季度强劲的表现有所放缓。交易主要包括续租和搬迁，以及少量新设和扩建项目。.
Across the Asia Pacific region, property markets started the year on a strongAcross the Asia Pacific region, property markets started the year on a strongnote, with office, industrial and logistics assets driving the ongoing recovery.
In China, the busy first quarter saw end-users and investors, including foreign investors, closing major deals in keycities. There was a resurgence in investor interest in Hong Kong and Singapore, while Japan witnessed the completionof a number of commercial and residential transactions. In Korea, low interest rates and liquidity continued to fueldemand for office space, a trend likely to persist as competition intensifies for a shrinking pool of assets, while Taiwansaw demand spike for commercial properties. In Australia, a typically quiet quarter witnessed heightened activity in theoffice segment, while New Zealand’s property market, buoyed by policy changes, low interest rates and expectations ofreopened borders, is gearing up for an active year.
In the region’s emerging markets, India saw healthy demand for residential and commercial assets, and investorsremain bullish about the market’s medium to long-term prospects. Vietnam’s property sector is in the midst of arebound supported by government reforms, while Indonesia’s property market is benefiting from a smooth rolloutof vaccines and policy changes that should strengthen purchasing power, improve market confidence and encourageinvestment. Thailand is also witnessing higher levels of market activity, especially in the logistics, warehousing andindustrial sectors, but a rebound in the hospitality sector will depend on the resumption of international travel. In thePhilippines, where the economy shrunk last year for the first time since 1998, the property market is likely to pick upfollowing the easing of quarantine restrictions and the deployment of vaccines. Meanwhile, in Myanmar, the ongoingpolitical turmoil will affect the near-term outlook, but the market is expected to retain its long-term growth potential,especially in the infrastructure and industrial segments.
Is Hong Kong is poised for a real estate resurgence?
Two years ago, Hong Kong was the world’s third largest real estate market, trailing only New York and London. The twin challenges of protests and a pandemic have taken their toll. So last week, Yardi called in the experts for their take on Hong Kong’s future.
Is Hong Kong is poised for a real estate resurgence?
Two years ago, Hong Kong was the world’s third largest real estate market, trailing only New York and London. The twin challenges of protests and a pandemic have taken their toll. So last week, Yardi called in the experts for their take on Hong Kong’s future.
David Green-Morgan, Managing Director Real Capital Analytics in Asia Pacific, Tommy Wu, Lead Economist for Oxford Economics in Asia, and Yardi’s Regional Director, 伯尼·德文 joined us for the first instalment of Yardi’s Executive Briefing Series for 2021. And here’s why they think Hong Kong real estate is ready to bounce back.
Political unrest had already damaged Hong Kong’s economy prior to Covid-19, and a 6% contraction followed in 2020, Wu told Yardi’s engaged audience. But Oxford Economics is forecasting a strong recovery, with 4% growth in 2021, and then 2.5% annually out to 2025. All the macro indicators bode well, Devine added, pointing to the vaccine rollout, slowly improving retail performance and unemployment rate, as well as the city’s strong financial governance framework, which remains a source of competitive advantage.
Political protests had a greater impact on Hong Kong’s commercial office sector than the global pandemic, Wu highlighted. Office prices fell during the protests, but the market is “bottoming out” and demand is returning. Green-Morgan agreed, pointing to recent deals struck at the 73-storey skyscraper at 99 Queens Road, The Center, which were “more or less on par” with 2018 prices.
“Quite a few multinationals have been shifting business functions to other key cities in Asia – like Singapore and Kuala Lumpur – but they are still keeping their offices in Hong Kong,” Wu added. Oxford Economics expects the financial sector “to continue to thrive” and the tech sector, while small, will be a powerful engine for growth. Hong Kong remains “the gateway in and out of China”.
While Covid-19 hurt the labour market, and unemployment currently sits at 7%, this has not affected housing demand, Wu said. Why is this? Most participants in the housing market are in the financial and other high-paying sectors, and these weren’t hit hardest by Covid. “The real impact on Hong Kong was the protests. In fact, Covid has had hardly any impact on property prices, when you take a high-level view,” Devine observed.
Will migration, especially from those who hold British National Overseas passports, affect the housing market? Wu pointed out that the bulk of these migrants are young and footloose, but not asset-rich and were unlikely to be in the market for housing. Meanwhile land supply will remain “tight – at least over the next few years,” Wu added.
Retail could take some time to recover, and Oxford Economics does not expect to see a repeat performance of the bounce back in 2003, following SARS. This marked a golden decade for retail and China’s emergence as a “major force” in tourism. “This won’t happen again,” Wu warned.
More than 80% of inbound tourists hail from China, but the falling price of luxury goods in China has eroded Hong Kong’s appeal as a shopping destination. Tourism is now at a “crossroads,” Wu added. Recovery in tourist arrivals will lag other nearby cities, and this will lead to “structural change” in retail.
While Hong Kong has some of the highest rents in the world, and while yields have been “incredibly low” in recent years, some investors are beginning to take a punt on the return of Chinese tourism. “This is the big unknown,” but prices are now low enough “that people are willing to take a bet,” Green-Morgan added.
“The last two years have been a real challenge for Hong Kong, but overall investor sentiment towards the city is becoming more positive,” Green-Morgan said. Despite recent declines, “Hong Kong is still one of the most investable cities in the region, and indeed the world”.
Hong Kong’s performance over the last decade has shown “some of the strongest price growth markets in the world”, and is bested only by Tokyo, Seoul and Shanghai for investment.
According to Real Capital Analytics data, a massive $50.3 billion in cash was splashed on property throughout the Asia Pacific region in the last quarter of 2020. Hong Kong’s 171% increase in transaction volumes year-on-year was “a big reason why the region as a whole did so well,” Green-Morgan explained.
Real estate investment trusts came under “huge pressure” in 2020, posting 30-40% price declines, Green-Morgan explained. Some of that has been “clawed back”, although retail REITs are “still being quite badly beaten up”.
But Hong Kong and China will continue to be “major players” and an important source of capital around the world, with $10 billion of Chinese and Hong Kong capital flowing out in 2020 alone. Our experts pointed to 联易房地产信托, Asia’s largest REIT in terms of market capitalization, as just one example of investors on the hunt for premium-grade assets.
Private equity, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds are those with the “big war chests at the moment,” Green-Morgan explained, and have real estate in their sights. Expect some “big deals on the horizon,” he said.
If you missed Yardi’s Hong Kong market update, don’t skip our insights into Singapore and Malaysia on 21 April, and Australia and New Zealand on 28 April. 点击此处 to register.
欲了解更多信息，请访问： https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/open-vs-closed-end-real-estate/02413249714
Kemmu Kawai 于 2022 年 9 月加入 Longevity Partners Japan，担任国家总监。他常驻东京，负责日本、亚太地区及其他地区的所有业务和活动。他拥有超过 16 年的金融从业经验，专门从事房地产和信贷投资。在加入 Longevity Partners 之前，他曾在 Norinchukin 银行担任投资组合经理，并在 Center Point Development 担任投资经理。.
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