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新冠疫情引发的封锁措施暴露了全球收益型物业的脆弱性。由此,市场呈现出两极分化的局面:更具韧性的优质资产继续保值,而次级资产的价值则不断缩水。为了应对这一局面,我们看到该地区正在大力推进资产转型,使其适应不断变化的市场环境。.

影响本世纪资产再利用的五大需求驱动因素包括拉动因素和推动因素。.

本文最初发表于 https://www.knightfrank.com/

“尽管受到疫情的影响,但受电子商务行业持续需求的推动,整个地区的仓储市场总体保持稳定。近期影响客户承诺的事件,使得供应链韧性的提升成为关注焦点,主要租户正通过增加库存缓冲和扩展城市配送中心来调整战略。这将对物流空间的需求产生积极的连锁反应,从而增强市场需求。该地区的开发商仍在积极寻找机会,以把握增长趋势,这表明他们对该地区的仓储市场充满信心。”

The ongoing recovery in key property markets across Asia Pacific continued in the second quarter of 2021 and looks set to sustain through the second half, aided by strong demand for commercial assets from end-users as well as investors.

In China, a total of 30 deals were finalised across major markets, as both domestic and foreign market participants sought to acquire key assets across property segments. Korea continued to witness record-high unit prices for prime office space in Seoul, and Japan’s property markets remained buoyant in the face of stringent restrictions. In Singapore, investment activity was dominated by the privatisation of REITs, while in India, global private equity (PE) firms and developers made significant acquisitions in metro markets. Taiwan witnessed a surge in demand for commercial property from manufacturers on the back of strong export growth. In the Philippines, e-commerce companies and outsourcing firms took up space in data centres while healthcare and logistics companies should lead office take-up in the coming months. Thailand’s office market remained stable though its troubled hospitality industry could see higher transaction levels as beleaguered owners look to sell assets. We also expect to see more joint ventures between Thai and international investors across sectors. In Indonesia, the residential sector is expected to receive a boost from the extension of a tax waiver while urban mixed-use projects in the capital, Jakarta, received an influx of foreign funds as investors bet on a speedy post-COVID-19 recovery.

One of the four core APREA services together create synergy for sustainable growth of members across the region:

倡导方式:

  • 持续努力,积极主动地与亚太地区的政策制定者进行战略性沟通。
  • 确保亚太地区证券化实物资产行业的长期增长
  • Promoting employment, economic growth and a sustainable environment among stakeholders
  • 协调行业标准,尤其是在报告透明度和可持续性方面。

Read on for the full updates from our 2021 Q2 Advocacy Bulletin Updates which includes the following items: 

• NDRC has made a new announcement for China Infrastructure REITs on 2 July
• India’s SEBI reduces the trading lot size for REIT and InvITs to enhance liquidity
• Greater Sydney Construction Activity Pause
• Grant scheme for OFCs and REITs in Hong Kong
• SGX launches world’s first ESG Reit derivatives
• Singapore Land Betterment Charge Act 2021
• Implications of the G-7 Global Minimum Corporate Tax for Singapore
• Extension to Temporary Relief Measures for Property Sector due to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic
• Refinements to Criteria for Publicly Listed Housing Developers with Substantial Connection to Singapore to be Exempted from Qualifying Certificate Regime

尽管新冠疫情前景尚未完全明朗,其对亚太地区写字楼租户的干扰正在减少。在灵活办公和新型工作模式日益普遍的趋势引导下,区域内企业已经在重启对不动产策略的长期规划。

针对“新常态”之下的写字楼发展和企业租户的应对措施,CBRE世邦魏理仕于5月启动了《未来的办公场所——2021年亚太区写字楼租户调查》,并于近期发布调查结果,确立了“区域内经济稳步复苏”、“企业不动产组合规模增长预期提高”、“混合办公趋势上升”、“未来的工作场所将更重视促进沟通与协作”、“企业将实施更具灵活性的工作场所设置”等五个主要的写字楼趋势。

该项针对亚太区各地不同行业写字楼租户的调查发现,大部分(71%)受访企业都认为企业经营环境正持续改善,这一比例显著高于2020年4月(22%)与10月(48%)的两次调查结果。其中,大中华区和太平洋地区受访企业的市场信心水平最高,而印度和东南亚地区企业对市场的乐观程度则相对较低。

概述

6月中旬,美联储暗示可能收紧量化宽松政策,并可能在2023年前加息,引发股市暴跌。投资者对不断上升的通胀压力及其对货币政策的影响仍感到担忧。受美元走强的影响,该地区股市也出现下跌。此外,疫情反弹导致多个经济体政府重新实施限制措施,威胁到该地区的复苏势头,股市进一步走弱。然而,在宽松的货币政策环境和投资者在收益率低迷的市场环境下对高股息股票的持续兴趣支撑下,该地区的房地产股大多逆势上涨。.

上市房地产

尽管表现优于亚太地区股票,但6月份亚太地区非房地产投资信托基金(REIT)类房地产股依然表现疲软,GPR/APREA上市房地产综合指数勉强维持在正值区间。与5月份的情况类似,澳大利亚、香港和日本的涨幅勉强抵消了中国和新加坡等其他亚太地区主要市场的谨慎情绪。由于政策不确定性持续影响市场情绪,中国房地产股连续第三个月表现不佳。政策制定者采取措施限制信贷增长并加大市场干预力度。.

香港股市持续上涨,主要受物业销售和价格显著回升以及市场对旨在提振本地消费的电子消费券计划的乐观情绪推动。黑石集团以237亿港元收购港交所上市公司SOHO中国,也表明投资者兴趣持续高涨。印度股市同样走高,原因是该国央行继续维持利率在历史低位。.

房地产投资信托基金

GPR/APREA综合房地产投资信托指数6月份表现强劲,6月份及第二季度均跑赢区域股市。尽管疫情反弹可能刺激了投资者对避险型工业房地产投资信托基金(REITs)的兴趣,但此次上涨是普惠性的,就连风险偏好较高的板块也录得涨幅。日元走软也刺激了对日本房地产投资信托基金(J-REITs)的投资。此外,香港经济和边境最终重新开放的前景也支撑了香港房地产投资信托基金(REITs)的表现。.

中国首批房地产投资信托基金(REITs)在股市首秀表现强劲,开盘即上涨。这九只上市REITs——五只在上海,四只在深圳——吸引了众多中国散户投资者的关注。据报道,这九只REITs共募集资金超过300亿元人民币,其中散户认购额超额10倍。目前,中国REITs仅以基础设施资产为投资标的,并以基金份额的形式发行。但此次试行将受到密切关注,其成功与否最终可能为进一步放宽市场限制埋下伏笔。.

与此同时,菲律宾房地产投资信托基金(REIT)的发行计划仍在按计划进行。继菲利宾投资公司(Filinvest)计划于第三季度推出其REIT之后,该国最大的办公楼业主——美加世界(Megaworld)——正计划推出该国规模最大的REIT发行,拟募集高达273亿菲律宾比索。数据中心巨头数字房地产信托(Digital Realty Trust)也在考虑在新加坡发行股票,拟募集高达1000亿美元,最早可能在今年完成。此次股票发行将满足投资者对数据中心日益增长的兴趣。该地区不断扩张的REIT市场正持续快速发展,预计今年下半年将有多达10家新REIT上市。.

前景

尽管通胀压力将持续带来波动,但由于各国央行仍然意识到经济复苏远未确定,预计货币政策环境将保持宽松。投资者也选择继续关注长期投资。该地区各国目前正致力于提高疫苗接种率,这提高了经济加速重启的可能性。机构投资者对该地区商业地产的兴趣依然强劲,尤其是在门户市场,投资者被更优惠的入场价格前景所吸引,纷纷抢购交易。今年上半年,该地区的房地产投资信托基金(REITs)价格已接近9.0%,超过了股票价格,表明市场正逐步回归长期基本面。.

过去六个月,随着许多市场成功控制疫情并在一定程度上放松了商业和社会活动的限制,亚太地区的商业信心显著改善。约有71%的受访者认为当前的商业环境正在改善,与世邦魏理仕分别于2020年10月和4月进行的两次调查相比,这一数字取得了显著进步。大中华区和太平洋地区的信心最高,而印度和东南亚则较为悲观,因为它们仍在努力控制新一波疫情。在可预见的未来,感染率的不确定性将继续制约区域复苏的步伐。然而,成熟亚洲市场疫苗接种率的快速提升以及全球范围内办公室的重新开放,将进一步增强企业对应对疫情的信心。.

Winning Strategies for Asia Pacific Real Estate

Top real estate and finance executives gathered in Singapore to discuss the opportunities and challenges ahead for the region’s real estate industry at an event hosted by the Asia Pacific Real Assets Association (APREA).

Jointly organized by APREA, SS&C and Intralinks, the event, “Accelerating Technology in the New Normal of Real Assets,” the livestreamed event covered a wide range of issues transforming the industry, from real estate data to ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) goals.

ある調査会社によると、今年上半期におけるある調査会社によると、今年上半期におけるオーストラリアへの不動産投資は対前年比で倍増となり、コロナ対策を着実に行い一定の成果を示し続けているオーストラリアに対する投資家の注目度は高い。こうした状況を踏まえ、このほどAPREA はオーストラリア不動産市場の現状や税務に関するWebinar を開催した。今回は市場概要をお届けする。

コロナ対策に一定の成果コロナ対策に一定の成果経済回復は早期に実現

メルボルンでのロックダウン期間は長かったもメルボルンでのロックダウン期間は長かったものの、オーストラリア政府はコロナウィルス対策を効果的に行い封じ込めに成功したと言えるであろう。オーストラリアの感染人数は約3万人、総人口のたった0.12%に過ぎない。政府は景気刺激策に2000 億ドル超を投入、事業主に対しては雇用継続向けに900 億ドル超の賃金支援を行った。ただ、シドニーは変異株の流行により先週から2週間のロックダウンが行われている。ワクチン接種率はほかの先進国よりはやや遅れておりまだ人口の1/4 程度だが、今後は順調に接種が進む予定である。

金利引き下げ策および量的緩和策の実行金利引き下げ策および量的緩和策の実行により国債利回りは低いため、不動産利回り同様魅力的なスプレッドとなっている。政策金利は0.1%で、コアの負債コストは140~190bp の範囲に収まると予想している。コロナウィルス感染拡大は28 年ぶりのリセッションをもたらし、2020 年第2四半期のGDP は7%の落ち込みを示したが、回復は早く2021 年3月の数字は1.1%と、パンデミック以前のレベルまで持ち直1.1%と、パンデミック以前のレベルまで持ち直し2022 年は3.5%、2023 年は3%と予測されている。

前回のリセッションと比べ失業率は急激に悪前回のリセッションと比べ失業率は急激に悪化したものの、回復も早く2021 年3月は5.1%まで回復しており、政府の支援策が功を奏したとのようにも見える。セ

With the need for quality and cost-effective manufacturing becoming even more necessary due, to the disruption and economic implications of COVID-19, and global corporations looking to diversify their manufacturing bases and de-risk their supply chain, India has spotted an opportunity to capitalize on this strategic shift.

India has been active on the policy front and is paving the way to become the world’s most preferred manufacturing hub. The Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme is the cornerstone of the Indian government’s masterplan to boost domestic manufacturing and make it globally competitive. Introduced in April 2020, the scheme has set in motion aseries of game-changing reforms that will attract global manufacturing majors with a focus on sectors such as mobilephones, electronics, pharmaceuticals, food processing, IT, battery storage, automobile components and specialty steel.The core objective is to signal a turning point for Indian Industry and gain a global presence while boosting economicgrowth through job creation.

A measure of the government’s seriousness and the scale at which it is pushing the scheme is its outlay: Rs 1.97 lakhcrore, or $26 billion, across 13 key sectors. The highlights are:

● Linking incentives to output: Incentives will be based on the overall rate of growth in that industry. Beneficiarieswill have to consider additional investments in greenfield facilities or even to carry out facility expansions toachieve this increment. All of this will reduce imports too

● Results matter: Incentives will be disbursed only after production has taken place in the country. This will boostexisting capacities in domestic manufacturing for sunrise and strategic sectors, and make domestic manufacturing globally competitive

● Creating ‘champions’ to maximize impact: The focus is on size and scale for the selected industry players todeliver volumes. This will make it exceedingly effective and can make the beneficiaries globally competitive