The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way we live and work. Long-running conversations surrounding the traditional office model have only proliferated in recent times. In response, we are now seeing new trends in strategies for corporate real estate arise from businesses around the world. When asked about expectations of change in their total amount of space in global portfolios, APAC respondents from the (Y)OUR SPACE 2021 global survey* have been more bullish than their global counterparts. 30% more APAC respondents said that they are likely to increase rather than decrease space. Comparatively, there are 5% more global respondents who are likely to decrease their portfolios than increase.
概述
亚太股市5月份再次遇冷，由于物价上涨可能加剧，投资者仍然担心通胀上涨。同时，亚太地区许多国家，包括印度、日本和部分东南亚国家，也面临着新一轮疫情威胁。新加坡、台湾和越南的功绩，这也让投资者感到不安。亚太地区疫苗普及速度落后于全球，对疫情的担忧将导致迟缓的边境管制，从而推迟经济复苏。在各种因素的影响下，亚太地产股的表现逊于亚太股票和债券指数。
亚太房地产上市公司股票
GPR/APREA上市房地产综合指数勉强维持在正值，澳大利亚、香港、日本即将开始盈利，勉强考虑中国和新加坡权重股的跌幅。在北京召开的会议后继进行的行为，中国地产股下跌。会议考虑通过采取房产税，以营养房地产投机，从而打击了市场信心。
然而，由于投资者买入升值强劲的人民币，加上美联储承诺的货币宽松政策，香港股票连续两个月收高。尽管印度新冠感染病例位居全球第一，但地产公司印度牛市和游行集团的联合直接推动了印度股票本月斩获最高回报率。监管部门批准了这一并购，这也造就了又一家印度最大的上市房地产公司之一。
亚太房地产投资信托基金
5月，GPR/APREA综合REIT指数创纪录地继续保持增长。然而，亚太地区大部分REIT市场表现并不如股票。唯独香港例外，回报率高达3%以上。从各个版块来看，主要地产板块收益表现新加坡工业REITs也位于地区内拖后腿的行列，因为政府加强了管制，以限制疫情感染人数的增加。尽管如此，新加坡工业REITs管理资产继续扩大规模，今年已公布超50亿新元的重大收购。
亚太REIT市场也迎来了又一重大发展挑战。众人期待已久的中国公募REIT市场已拉开帷幕，两国监管部门已批准了批REITs，包含九只股票，预计基础设施项目将征缴300亿元人民币。然而，与其他市场不同，中国REITs目前只以基础设施为支撑。符合条件的设施资产不包括商业地产、商场或楼宇等。同时，顺丰REIT成功在香港交易所上市，成为香港第一支以物流为主的REIT。
亚太地区的REITs并购活动也较为活跃。目前除日本境内对景顺日本办公REIT的争夺外，澳大利亚证交所上市的澳大利亚联合医疗地产信托也成为加拿大西北医疗地产信托和新加坡政府投资公司新加坡主权财富基金的竞相收购目标。
前景展望
资源价格和通胀预期的上涨可能使政策来得更早，而通胀问题仍将是投资者的主要关注点。不过，在美联储评论称基于基数效应的价格大幅上涨是暂时性的之后，美国国债成本却在5月份有所回落。投资者认为即将达到顶峰，债券买入量减少，美联储还能承受更高的价格背景。在经济持续复苏之前的继续下，亚太REITs将受益于持续的低息环境，以及机构投资者对房地产的强劲需求。
The Asia Pacific (APAC) region is experiencing a boom in infrastructure investing. The Infrastructure sector in countries that include India, Indonesia, China, Australia, Philippines, Myanmar, Vietnam, Thailand and Singapore is expected to grow 7% to 8% per year over the next decade.
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概述
亚太股市5月份继续表现疲软，投资者持续关注不断上升的通胀压力，大宗商品价格飙升可能推高通胀。此外，包括印度、日本和东南亚部分地区在内的多个国家也出现了新一轮新冠肺炎疫情。新加坡、台湾和越南（这些地区在控制疫情方面最为成功）的病例激增也令投资者感到不安。疫苗接种速度落后于全球平均水平，加剧了人们对长期边境管制将延缓经济复苏的担忧。受此影响，亚太地区的房地产股表现逊于该地区的股票和债券指数。.
上市房地产
GPR/APREA上市房地产综合指数勉强维持在正值区间，澳大利亚、香港和日本的微幅上涨勉强抵消了中国和新加坡等其他区域巨头的跌幅。中国房地产股下跌，此前北京召开的一次会议考虑征收房产税以遏制房地产市场过度投机，令市场情绪承压。.
然而，由于投资者看好强势人民币以及美联储宽松的货币政策，香港股市连续第二个月收高。尽管印度疫情形势严峻，感染人数居全球之首，但由于Indiabulls Real Estate和Embassy Group的合并案进展顺利，印度股市依然取得了最高回报。该合并案已获得监管部门批准，合并后将诞生印度最大的上市房地产公司之一。.
房地产投资信托基金
GPR/APREA综合REIT指数在5月份继续保持上涨势头。然而，亚太地区大多数REIT市场表现逊于股票市场。香港市场是个例外，收益率最高，略高于310亿至3万亿美元。从行业板块来看，主要房地产板块的涨幅也较为平淡。由于新加坡加强了防控措施以应对感染病例的增加，新加坡REITs在亚太地区表现不佳。尽管如此，新加坡工业REITs的管理资产规模仍在持续增长，今年已宣布的重大收购案价值超过10亿至4万亿美元。.
该地区的房地产投资信托基金（REITs）市场也迎来了一项重大进展。中国期待已久的公开上市REITs市场正式启动，监管机构批准了首批REITs，包括9只股票，预计将募集300亿元人民币用于基础设施项目。然而，与其他市场不同，中国REITs目前仅以基础设施为基础资产。目前，符合条件的标的资产不包括购物中心或写字楼等商业地产。与此同时，香港迎来了首只专注于物流领域的REITs上市，顺丰房地产投资信托基金（SF REIT）在香港联交所成功上市。.
该地区房地产投资信托基金（REIT）领域的并购活动也日益活跃。除了目前日本Invesco Office J-REIT的收购战之外，在澳大利亚证券交易所上市的澳大利亚Unity Healthcare Property Trust也成为加拿大NorthWest Healthcare Properties REIT和新加坡主权财富基金GIC的收购目标。.
前景
随着资源价格上涨和运输成本攀升，提前加息的可能性增加，通胀仍将是投资者关注的焦点。然而，在美联储表示此类源于基数效应的价格飙升只是暂时的之后，5月份美国国债收益率有所回落。投资者普遍认为，美联储会在加息和缩减债券购买规模之前容忍更高的价格。在经济持续复苏的背景下，亚太地区的房地产投资信托基金（REITs）将继续受益于持续的低利率环境以及机构投资者对房地产投资的强劲需求。.
概述
新一波的疫情浪潮，尤其是在亚洲，也促使投资者转向避险资产，导致4月份10年期国债短暂跌至一个多月来的美联储在本月底的定期会议上决定维持利率不变。尽管经济正在复苏，美联储仍然坚持在未来短期内，将继续支持高度广泛的货币政策。亚太股票市场反应乐观，继上月下跌后，摩根士丹利亚太股价指数已重回正值。
亚太房地产上市公司股票
GPR/APREA上市房地产综合指数仍呈正值，但由于中国和日本权重股的下跌，综合指数涨幅并不显着。，中国股市跌幅最大，因此数据房产价格持续上涨，投资者担心监管将施加更大的压力。中国城市许多3月新房房价显示都已达到过去7个月来的最高点。距离奥运会结束三个月来，日本宣布进入第三轮紧急状态，以阻断疫情发展，这也打击了日本国内的市场信心。
亚太房地产投资信托基金
亚太市场大部分表现良好，GPR/APREA综合房地产投资信托指数延续了2个月以来的势涨，本月月底收高。亚太REITs连续第二个月跑赢股票。
其中，日本REITs引领资本上涨，保持2020年11月以来的连胜势头，因为机构对日本房地产资产的兴趣增加，从而推动了REITs的表现。喜达屋拟计划收购日本景顺资产管理公司的REIT，初始溢价即价格超10%。预期未来报价将上涨，投资者竞相抬价抢购。此外，日本央行承诺每年继续拨出高达1800亿日元的资金购买日本REITs。低利率和对经济复苏的预期也给澳大利亚市场带来了信心，收益上涨。
与此同时，巴基斯坦证券与交易委员会，即该国的市场监管机构，正在逐步放松对REIT的监管，取消对提供竣工证明文件的后续要求，该要求被许多投资者认为阻碍了REIT的发展。继2015年上市首支REIT后，这个南亚国家尚未推出任何新的REIT。
亚太REITs行业正呈现持续价值扩张。中国最大的快递供应商顺丰控股有限公司，计划将三个总计61亿港币的物流中心纳入在香港上市的离岸REIT中。顺丰已于4月向香港交易所提供了顺丰REIT的上市。申请地产和管理公司丰树投资也计划在新加坡上市学生住房类REIT，预计近期能增约10亿新元。
前景展望
疫情爆发已一年有余，亚太REITs已逆转颓势，超过了去年1月份疫情爆发前的最高点。不过，在收益方面仍然优于亚太股票。
尽管如此，后时代的经济复苏仍将逐步提速，这将对亚太REITs带来积极影响。在当前的低利率环境下，机构投资者对房产资产的兴趣不减，而在他们的带动下，商业房地产市场也更加活跃，预计这也将有利于REITs的估值。
The global economic disruption and uncertainty in capital markets caused by the COVID pandemic has done little to negatively impact the Real Assets sector; in fact, it has emerged as a haven for institutional investors seeking opportunities amid the turmoil.
A recent Investment Intentions 2021 survey from PREA, INREV and ANREV, which included 84 institutional investors and 15 Fund-of-Fund managers, highlighted that COVID has not decreased but increased investors’ appetite for real estate. Almost half (46%) of the institutional investors surveyed expect their real allocations to increase over the next two years – with Sydney, Melbourne and Tokyo as preferred investment locations – while only 7% expect it to decrease.
In addition, Preqin expects global AUM growth in alternative assets to average 9.8% per year from $10.7tn in 2020 to $17tn in 2025, despite a turbulent 2020 and start to 2021.
It is clear that the current, persistently low interest rate environment in the Asia-Pacific region in particular is attracting investors to alternative assets with the promise of outperformance, diversification and lower correlation with public markets. It is also clear that managers will need to scale their administration function to cope with this influx of assets. However, what considerations do Asia-Pacific managers need to take on board – such as the potential reputational impact of sourcing jobs overseas in a high unemployment environment – when scaling up their administration?
Market adjustment slows
Although the market continues to correct, we note signs that the rate of adjustment is slowing.
• For the central fi ve wards (C5W), COVID-19 is still taking a toll on the market and casting a shadow over the market’s future, although the impact appears to be showing signs of alleviation. • Average Grade A offi ce market rents in the C5W fell 1.9% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 5.3% year-on-year (YoY), and now stand at JPY35,762 per tsubo1 per month.
• The average Grade A offi ce vacancy rate in the C5W increased slightly by 0.2 percentage points (ppts) QoQ to 1.2% in Q1/2021.
• Average large-scale Grade B offi ce rents declined to JPY27,275 per tsubo per month – a contraction of 2.1% QoQ and 4.5% YoY.
• The average vacancy rate in the Grade B market lies at 2.2% following a loosening of 0.6ppts QoQ and 2.0ppts YoY.
• With limited supply expected this year and the next, the market should have time to adjust and recover, although secondary vacancy derived from the large supply in 2020 is a concern.
• While prime real estate is expected to hold steady, rents in poorly located and older offi ces are likely to fall, resulting in an overall market deterioration.
Rental declines moderate
Occupier demand started to rise in Q1/2021, but the reintroduction of crowd density controls now suggests a more protracted recovery.
• Food & beverage (F&B) revenue largely declined in Q1/2021 as operators continued to be aff ected by the COVID-19 pandemic control measures such as dine in capacity constraints and restrictions on large-scale events. However, retail sales (excluding motor vehicles) improved in the quarter, largely due to a lower base in the same period last year.
• With the positive net demand of 301,000 sq ft outweighing the net supply of 108,000 sq ft, the overall vacancy rate declined for a second consecutive quarter by 0.3 of a percentage point (ppt) to 8.5% in Q1/2021, the lowest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic here in Q2/2020.
• Despite the lack of tourists, the Orchard Area remains resilient with the vacancy rate remaining unchanged at 11.6%. On the other hand, the vacancy level in Suburban Areas declined for a third consecutive quarter by 0.8 of a ppt to 5.2%, its lowest level since Q1/2016. • Savills monthly prime rents in Orchard Area fell, albeit at a slower pace, by 3.0% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to S$22.80 psf, compared to the 7.8% decline registered in Q4/2020.
• The more vibrant suburban malls saw a smaller contraction in Savills monthly prime rents in Suburban Areas of 2.0% QoQ to S$24.00 psf.
• Despite the limited supply pipeline over the next few years, the uptick of COVID-19 community cases led the government to backtrack from Phase 3 of the pandemic control measures to reintroduce Phase 2 (Heightened Alert). While the government has provided some form of support to retailers, it is expected that business conditions will remain challenging and rents of malls in both Orchard and Suburban Areas are forecast to decline by 15% and 10% respectively in 2021.
Kemmu Kawai 于 2022 年 9 月加入 Longevity Partners Japan，担任国家总监。他常驻东京，负责日本、亚太地区及其他地区的所有业务和活动。他拥有超过 16 年的金融从业经验，专门从事房地产和信贷投资。在加入 Longevity Partners 之前，他曾在 Norinchukin 银行担任投资组合经理，并在 Center Point Development 担任投资经理。.
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