市場展望

Tokyo is rapidly becoming a regional hub for hyperscale deployments, as the xScale joint venture between Equinix and GIC nears first phase completion and development continues from the Digital Realty/Mitsubishi Corporation partnership on their latest site. These developments have…

Tokyo is rapidly becoming a regional hub for hyperscale deployments, as the xScale joint venture between Equinix and GIC nears first phase completion and development continues from the Digital Realty/Mitsubishi Corporation partnership on their latest site.

These developments have now been joined by AirTrunk, who confirmed their long-rumored entry to the market with the 60 MW first phase of their new 300 MW TOK1 campus to be operational by the end of 2021. This site thus has the potential to be the highest capacity campus locally at full build-out and serves as a major confirmation of both market potential and specifically the rapidly developing data centre cluster at Inzai. This focus on larger deployments is predicated on the continued digital transformation of large local corporations, with major cloud services such as Google and Alibaba making recent inroads and additional supporting applications gaining wider availability. All this leads to continued positive growth throughout the local ecosystem.

COVID-19 驅動資料需求成長

儘管地緣政治局勢持續不明朗，加上 COVID-19 疫情爆發，香港數據中心市場的活動依然紅火。在今年最大型的租賃交易中，美國數據中心房地產投資信託基金 Digital Realty 於七月初宣佈，同意租用位於葵涌建磚街 11 號新落成的專用數據中心，作為該營運商在香港的第二個設施。.

COVID-19 驅動資料需求成長

儘管地緣政治局勢持續不明朗，加上 COVID-19 疫情爆發，香港數據中心市場的活動依然紅火。在今年最大型的租賃交易中，美國數據中心房地產投資信託基金 Digital Realty 於七月初宣佈，同意租用位於葵涌建磚街 11 號新落成的專用數據中心，作為該營運商在香港的第二個設施。.

在香港爆發的第三波病毒疫情中，跨國公司暫停了返回辦公室的計劃，並要求員工在家工作。預計即使疫情過後，許多公司仍會繼續允許某種程度的遙距工作，從而加快企業在各方面的數碼化轉型步伐，並導致對雲端應用的需求激增。香港即將引進的 5G 技術也將帶動更多的數據使用，從而增加對機架空間的需求。有見及此，不少中國及國際營運商仍積極在香港尋找合適的租賃或投資機會。.

Japan’s economy passed over the business peak around the fall of 2018, entering a clear recession due to the consumption tax rate hike in the October 2019 and exacerbated by the impact of the spread of COVID-19 since February 2020. However, with May 2020 as the bottom, Japan’s economy is now headed toward recovery.

Amid the impacts of the spread of COVID-19, the for-sale/transaction market for real estate in Japan has already peaked. However, the balance of power between sellers and buyers in transactions has not shifted notably as of present, and the functions of a sound real estate transaction market have been maintained.

Looking at Japan’s real estate rental market, with June 2020 as the bottom, the market conditions of hotels and retail properties are heading toward recovery after an abrupt setback due to countermeasures against the spread of COVID-19.

Colliers International, in its latest report titled “New Directions In Asia Pacific Logistics-Increasingly Varied Sector Requires Multiple Approaches” highlighted the positive outlook that lies ahead for Asia Pacific’s logistics market.

Across Asia Pacific, demand for logistics space has been supported by a long-run shift from physical to online retailing. COVID-19 has driven up e-commerce volumes sharply, while expansion in the cold chain sector and new infrastructure developments should boost demand further. Most investors and developers already see logistics warehouses as a core asset class.

While office rents continued to drop in the downbeat market, tenants seized the opportunity for better relocation options, resulting in high activity in the leasing market during the month. However, landlords further softened their approach and adopted a more realistic stance in negotiating leasing terms to secure tenants, so the majority of tenants tended to renew their leases. As a result, new take-up of Grade-A office space was at an exceptional low level during the month, particularly in the CBD area.

Amid the challenging economic environment, cost-competitiveness remains a pressing consideration for tenants. Going into 2021, we therefore expect to see a continuing decentralisation trend. We also foresee rising demand for co-working space, as more companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which have been heavily impacted by the coronavirus-induced recession to actively explore flexible leasing options.

Respondents to the Q2 Asia Pacific Commercial Property Monitor indicated that regional sentiment remained downbeat  in Q2. The RICS Commercial Property Sentiment Index*  (CPSI) fell from -31 in Q1 to -38 in Q2, the lowest reading since the Global Financial Crisis. As can be seen in Chart 1, the results from Asia Pacific are in line with those from the Americas (-38), Europe (-36) and the Middle East and Africa (-39).

Chart 2 shows China was the largest contributor to the downbeat sentiment in Asia Pacific. However, this is largely due to its large regional weighting in the index (China represents 48% of the Asia Pacific Index). The CPSI was firmly negative in every Asia Pacific country tracked by this survey. Chart 2 also shows a deterioration in conditions in Australia, India, Japan and elsewhere in APAC (including Hong Kong and Singapore).

MSCI 環球房地產年度指數衡量 25 個國家的房地產投資回報。雖然 MSCI 的日本和韓國國家指數已納入 MSCI 全球年度房地產指數，但我們在其他七個亞洲國家（中國、香港、印尼、馬來西亞、新加坡、台灣和泰國）的市場數據則不包括在該指數中。在本報告中，所有國家的市場規模都是根據自下而上、特定投資組合的估算，並使用年終的貨幣換算率換算為美元。.

Cushman & Wakefield 在其最新的報告中題為‘東盟的興起與崛起’ 強調了東南亞未來的光明前景。其中一些重要觀點包括：

1. 東盟的經濟和人口蕴藏著巨大的發展潛力，使其成為區內的製造業集群。. 
2. 東盟各地的工業用地存量仍然非常穩健，為佔用人提供了以具有競爭力的地價獲取空間的機會。. 
3. 一旦該地區擺脫目前的 COVID-19 危機，越南、泰國、菲律賓和印尼在 2020 年代餘下時間的前景似乎會一片光明。活躍於這些市場的開發商需要識別新企業佔用者的市場潛力。.

儘管到目前為止，日本已相對成功地控制了 COVID-19 的爆發，但全球大流行病的影響肯定會對日本經濟以及更廣泛的房地產市場造成打擊。截至 2020 年 4 月，IMF 預測 2020 年日本經濟將萎縮 4.8%。更糟糕的是，目前定於 2021 年 7 月舉行的東京奧運會可能會被完全取消。儘管 COVID-19 會造成短期影響，但在 2020 年代初期及之後，東京仍將持續獲得大量投資。C5W 周邊地區如虎之門和澀谷的大型開發項目已在進行中。隨著這些開發項目，品川車站也將進行大規模的再開發，這將為品川車站以及南面的品川區帶來十年內的蓬勃發展。.

新冠肺炎疫情對全球經濟的影響引發了激烈辯論。多数预测认为，全球经济将经 历严重衰退，程度或甚于金融危机时期； 更有不少人士认为这将是第二次世界大战以来最严重的经济衰退。争论的焦点在于经济复苏模式。是否会出现V形反弹？还是U形、L形或W形？甚至有预测认为会出现像耐克品牌标志那样的 「对勾形 」复苏。 随着各国陆续放松封锁禁令但继续鼓励社交隔离，新冠肺炎疫情的长期影响仍有待观察。為會出現像耐克品牌標誌那樣的 「對勾形 」复苏。 随着各国陆续放松封锁禁令但继续鼓励社交隔离，新冠肺炎疫情的长期影响仍有待观察。许多人士认为世界将大为不同。