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經過二十年在一些市場的成功發展和成長,我們對亞太地區房地產投資信託基金在 2020 年代的發展有何期待?


 經過二十年在一些市場的成功發展和成長,我們對亞太地區房地產投資信託基金在 2020 年代的發展有何期待?

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預計今年經濟將復甦,開局良好

  • 隨著疫苗分發、旅行限制逐步放寬以及員工重返工作崗位等利好消息提振經濟,投資銷售活動在今年第一季回暖,其中住宅市場交易額領先。 2021年第一季投資交易金額約10億至4兆新元,較2020年第一季的30億新元成長26.71兆新元。.
  • 2021年初,住宅市場維持強勁勢頭,投資交易額約1.7億新元。優質洋房(GCB)市場因其稀缺性和珍貴性,以及更多家族辦公室在新加坡設立機構,持續吸引投資者的濃厚興趣。 3月下旬,納西姆路一棟優質洋房以1.288億新元(每平方英尺4005新元)的價格售出,打破了該資產類別先前的所有銷售紀錄。同時,開發商也開始透過合作補充土地儲備。.

隨著投資人越來越關注私募資產的風險、績效以及與公開證券的比較,私募資產的透明度要求也日益提高。我們採訪了博吉斯(Burgiss)固定收益、多元資產類別及私募資產研究主管彼得·謝潑德(Peter Shepard)和全球產品管理及應用研究主管布萊恩·施密德(Brian Schmid)。.

隨著投資人越來越關注私募資產的風險、績效以及與公開證券的比較,私募資產的透明度要求也日益提高。我們採訪了博吉斯(Burgiss)固定收益、多元資產類別及私募資產研究主管彼得·謝潑德(Peter Shepard)和全球產品管理及應用研究主管布萊恩·施密德(Brian Schmid)。.

點這裡收聽Podcast: https://www.msci.com/perspectives-podcast/private-assets-withstand-public-attention

租戶採用遠距辦公概念

2020年第一季末,由於疫情影響,該國被迫全面封鎖商業活動。 2020年3月,工作場所關閉,員工在最初幾週居家辦公。到2020年5月,隨著封鎖限制的逐步放寬,工作場所開始部分重新開放,但並非所有公司都要求員工返回辦公室。此外,我們仍然看到很大一部分員工居家辦公。 「居家辦公」和「隨時隨地辦公」的趨勢此後日益顯著,企業也對遠距辦公展現開放態度。調查結果顯示,多數企業(60%)預計,未來12-24個月內,其員工中將有約21%至40%在非辦公地點工作。然而,隨著租戶重新審視現有辦公空間的密度規劃,以確保員工安全復工,我們預計該行業將逐步復甦,辦公空間吸收量將在2021年下半年開始顯現回升跡象。我們認為,租戶可能會採用「中心輻射式」模式,為員工提供靈活的辦公地點選擇,讓他們可以在任何地方或客戶附近工作。因此,種種跡象表明,在這種情況下,靈活辦公空間的重要性將日益凸顯。.

The commercialisation of the property management industry in China started in 1981 with the incorporation of China’s first property management company managing a residential property in Shenzhen. In the subsequent ten years, residential property management continued to mature with the eventual establishment of the Shenzhen Real Estate Management Bureau in 1985. One of the first Grade A office buildings to be professionally managed was the Guangzhou World Trade Centre in 1992, where it was co-managed by Savills and Guangzhou Pearl River Hotel Management. In the early days of property management in China, the sector remained immensely scattered and only basic property management services were provided. The China Property Management Association was eventually established in 2000, with the first nationwide property management regulations issued in 2003. As the property management sector continued to grow, local governments set standards for the market, requiring firms to obtain operation licenses and setting residential property management fee caps.

The industry started to undergo greater liberalisation in 2014-2016, with property managers no longer required to obtain the national ‘Certified Property Manager’ qualification license and commodity housing management fees caps removed and instead set by market forces. In more recent years, property managers have started providing value-added services (VAS) to boost revenues and profit margins. At the same time, many developers have spun off property management divisions in separate listings, with many of them given the mandate to aggressively expand market share, often through mergers and acquisitions. The property management industry is now also taking on a broader range of property types. In addition to the more standard commercial and residential developments, firms are be contracted for work at schools, hospitals, airports, sports stadiums and public utilities, to name just a few.

  • The aggregate performance of closed- and open-end real estate funds in the U.S. was strikingly similar in recent years, despite large differences in their strategic focus and the roles they play in institutional portfolios.
  • How investors timed their commitments to closed-end funds, as well as how managers drew down and returned capital to investors, contributed toward money-weighted returns that were 2 percentage points higher than their equivalent time-weighted returns.
  • Performance dispersion across closed-end funds created opportunity for investors able to select top-quartile managers, but even those making a large number of commitments potentially faced a wide range of portfolio returns.

  • The aggregate performance of closed- and open-end real estate funds in the U.S. was strikingly similar in recent years, despite large differences in their strategic focus and the roles they play in institutional portfolios.
  • How investors timed their commitments to closed-end funds, as well as how managers drew down and returned capital to investors, contributed toward money-weighted returns that were 2 percentage points higher than their equivalent time-weighted returns.
  • Performance dispersion across closed-end funds created opportunity for investors able to select top-quartile managers, but even those making a large number of commitments potentially faced a wide range of portfolio returns.

To Read More visit: https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/open-vs-closed-end-real-estate/02413249714

With new demand continuing to be led by the technology sector, tightening vacancy to 5.0% from 5.2% in Q4 2020, Colliers recommend occupiers to lock in leases early as rents hit an inflection point. Owners should redevelop older properties into mixed-use developments to unlock value.

報告要點:

  • CBD Grade A rents stabilised at SGD9.54 per sq ft (-0.3%QOQ) in Q1 2021, as net absorption turned positive after two consecutive quarters of contraction.
  • New demand continued to be led bythe technology sector, tightening vacancy to 5.0% from 5.2% in Q4 2020.
  • Total office or mixed office investment volumes rose 13.9% YOY to SGD850 million in Q1 2021, as confidence returned with the global vaccine roll-out. 

MANUFACTURING DRIVES INDUSTRIAL SECTOR REBOUND

  • According to the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), Singapore’s economy contracted by 2.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q4 2020, bringing the total change in the overall economic growth in 2020 to a negative 5.4%. In a COVID-19 year, the resilient manufacturing sector played a huge role in cushioning the fallout on the economy, with substantial output expansions in the electronics, biomedical manufacturing and precision engineering clusters.
  • Demand for electronics remains high due to the current global chip shortage. And with Singapore as a major manufacturer of semiconductors, chipmakers in the industrial sector may be compelled to expand existing facilities in order to increase output production.
  • In March 2021, the Singapore Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) reported an expansion of 50.8, the highest since March 2019. The optimism among manufacturers prevailed in January and February where the PMI expanded by 50.7 and 50.5 respectively, indicating that the industrial sector is likely to see continued growth in 2021.

Recommendations and Insights 

We expect office rents and prices to remain under pressure in H1 2021 before bottoming out mid-year, followed by a more stable H2 before rebounding again from 2022 onwards, assuming that Covid is under control within the first half of 2021. We believe that now is a good time for buyers to explore opportunities in the strata-title office sector:

• End-users with long term real estate needs should explore acquisition options, as office prices and rents could rebound quickly in core locations once the market recovers.
• Investors pursuing office sector exposure in Hong Kong, but had previously found it too expensive, should seize this window of opportunity to enter the market.
• Investors looking for offices with smaller lumpsum transaction values should consider areas in Kowloon, which offers more options and attractive pricing.