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经过二十年在一些市场的成功发展和增长，我们对亚太地区房地产投资信托基金在 2020 年代的发展有何期待？

 经过二十年在一些市场的成功发展和增长，我们对亚太地区房地产投资信托基金在 2020 年代的发展有何期待？

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预计今年经济将复苏，开局良好

  • 随着疫苗分发、旅行限制逐步放宽以及员工重返工作岗位等利好消息提振经济，投资销售活动在今年第一季度回暖，其中住宅市场交易额领跑。2021年第一季度投资交易额约为10亿至4万亿新元，较2020年第一季度的30亿新元增长26.71万亿新元。.
  • 2021年初，住宅市场保持强劲势头，投资交易额约为1.7亿新元。优质洋房（GCB）市场因其稀缺性和珍贵性，以及更多家族办公室在新加坡设立机构，持续吸引着投资者的浓厚兴趣。3月下旬，纳西姆路一栋优质洋房以1.288亿新元（每平方英尺4005新元）的价格售出，打破了该资产类别此前的所有销售纪录。与此同时，开发商也开始通过合作补充土地储备。.
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随着投资者越来越关注私募资产的风险、业绩以及与公开证券的比较，私募资产的透明度要求也日益提高。我们采访了博吉斯（Burgiss）固定收益、多元资产类别及私募资产研究主管彼得·谢泼德（Peter Shepard）和全球产品管理及应用研究主管布莱恩·施密德（Brian Schmid）。.

随着投资者越来越关注私募资产的风险、业绩以及与公开证券的比较，私募资产的透明度要求也日益提高。我们采访了博吉斯（Burgiss）固定收益、多元资产类别及私募资产研究主管彼得·谢泼德（Peter Shepard）和全球产品管理及应用研究主管布莱恩·施密德（Brian Schmid）。.

点击这里收听播客： https://www.msci.com/perspectives-podcast/private-assets-withstand-public-attention

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租户采用远程办公理念

2020年第一季度末，由于疫情影响，该国被迫全面封锁商业活动。2020年3月，工作场所关闭，员工在最初几周居家办公。到2020年5月，随着封锁限制的逐步放宽，工作场所开始部分重新开放，但并非所有公司都要求员工返回办公室。此外，我们仍然看到很大一部分员工居家办公。‘居家办公’和‘随时随地办公’的趋势此后日益显著，企业也对远程办公表现出开放态度。调查结果显示，大多数企业（60%）预计，未来12-24个月内，其员工中将有约21%至40%在非办公地点工作。然而，随着租户重新审视现有办公空间的密度规划，以确保员工安全复工，我们预计该行业将逐步复苏，办公空间吸纳量将在2021年下半年开始显现回升迹象。我们认为，租户可能会采用‘中心辐射式’模式，为员工提供灵活的办公地点选择，让他们可以在任何地方或客户附近工作。因此，种种迹象表明，在这种情况下，灵活办公空间的重要性将日益凸显。.

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The commercialisation of the property management industry in China started in 1981 with the incorporation of China’s first property management company managing a residential property in Shenzhen. In the subsequent ten years, residential property management continued to mature with the eventual establishment of the Shenzhen Real Estate Management Bureau in 1985. One of the first Grade A office buildings to be professionally managed was the Guangzhou World Trade Centre in 1992, where it was co-managed by Savills and Guangzhou Pearl River Hotel Management. In the early days of property management in China, the sector remained immensely scattered and only basic property management services were provided. The China Property Management Association was eventually established in 2000, with the first nationwide property management regulations issued in 2003. As the property management sector continued to grow, local governments set standards for the market, requiring firms to obtain operation licenses and setting residential property management fee caps.

The industry started to undergo greater liberalisation in 2014-2016, with property managers no longer required to obtain the national ‘Certified Property Manager’ qualification license and commodity housing management fees caps removed and instead set by market forces. In more recent years, property managers have started providing value-added services (VAS) to boost revenues and profit margins. At the same time, many developers have spun off property management divisions in separate listings, with many of them given the mandate to aggressively expand market share, often through mergers and acquisitions. The property management industry is now also taking on a broader range of property types. In addition to the more standard commercial and residential developments, firms are be contracted for work at schools, hospitals, airports, sports stadiums and public utilities, to name just a few.

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  • 近年来，尽管美国封闭式和开放式房地产基金在战略重点和在机构投资组合中扮演的角色存在很大差异，但它们的总体表现却惊人地相似。.
  • 投资者如何把握时机投资封闭式基金，以及基金经理如何提取和返还资金给投资者，都导致了资金加权收益率比相应的时间加权收益率高出 2 个百分点。.
  • 封闭式基金业绩的差异为能够选择前四分之一基金经理的投资者创造了机会，但即使是那些进行大量投资的投资者，也可能面临投资组合回报范围很广的问题。.
  • 近年来，尽管美国封闭式和开放式房地产基金在战略重点和在机构投资组合中扮演的角色存在很大差异，但它们的总体表现却惊人地相似。.
  • 投资者如何把握时机投资封闭式基金，以及基金经理如何提取和返还资金给投资者，都导致了资金加权收益率比相应的时间加权收益率高出 2 个百分点。.
  • 封闭式基金业绩的差异为能够选择前四分之一基金经理的投资者创造了机会，但即使是那些进行大量投资的投资者，也可能面临投资组合回报范围很广的问题。.

欲了解更多信息，请访问： https://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/open-vs-closed-end-real-estate/02413249714

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With new demand continuing to be led by the technology sector, tightening vacancy to 5.0% from 5.2% in Q4 2020, Colliers recommend occupiers to lock in leases early as rents hit an inflection point. Owners should redevelop older properties into mixed-use developments to unlock value.

报告要点：

  • CBD Grade A rents stabilised at SGD9.54 per sq ft (-0.3%QOQ) in Q1 2021, as net absorption turned positive after two consecutive quarters of contraction.
  • New demand continued to be led bythe technology sector, tightening vacancy to 5.0% from 5.2% in Q4 2020.
  • Total office or mixed office investment volumes rose 13.9% YOY to SGD850 million in Q1 2021, as confidence returned with the global vaccine roll-out. 
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MANUFACTURING DRIVES INDUSTRIAL SECTOR REBOUND

  • According to the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), Singapore’s economy contracted by 2.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q4 2020, bringing the total change in the overall economic growth in 2020 to a negative 5.4%. In a COVID-19 year, the resilient manufacturing sector played a huge role in cushioning the fallout on the economy, with substantial output expansions in the electronics, biomedical manufacturing and precision engineering clusters.
  • Demand for electronics remains high due to the current global chip shortage. And with Singapore as a major manufacturer of semiconductors, chipmakers in the industrial sector may be compelled to expand existing facilities in order to increase output production.
  • In March 2021, the Singapore Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) reported an expansion of 50.8, the highest since March 2019. The optimism among manufacturers prevailed in January and February where the PMI expanded by 50.7 and 50.5 respectively, indicating that the industrial sector is likely to see continued growth in 2021.
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Recommendations and Insights 

We expect office rents and prices to remain under pressure in H1 2021 before bottoming out mid-year, followed by a more stable H2 before rebounding again from 2022 onwards, assuming that Covid is under control within the first half of 2021. We believe that now is a good time for buyers to explore opportunities in the strata-title office sector:

• End-users with long term real estate needs should explore acquisition options, as office prices and rents could rebound quickly in core locations once the market recovers.
• Investors pursuing office sector exposure in Hong Kong, but had previously found it too expensive, should seize this window of opportunity to enter the market.
• Investors looking for offices with smaller lumpsum transaction values should consider areas in Kowloon, which offers more options and attractive pricing.

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