市場展望

From Q4 2020 to 2024, some 53.8 million sq ft gross floor area (GFA) of industrial space is slated to be completed. Of these, about 43.2% of the upcoming supply is expected to be completed in 2021, with a significant proportion being multiple-user and single-user factory spaces. Coupled with the phased withdrawal of government fiscal support for businesses, multipleuser factory prices and rents are likely to come under pressure, falling by not more than 5% in 2021 while single-user factories could fare slightly better.

• The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly accelerated a number of secular shifts that were already starting to have fundamental impacts on the role real estate plays in the economy as well as in investment portfolios.
• Such disruption increases the need for evolving data and analytics to understand the rapidly changing drivers of performance and risk consistently across all types of real estate investments.
• Despite a long list of difficult questions facing the asset class, climate change and its impact on risk and return are more important than ever for real estate investors.

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HEALTHY TRANSACTION VOLUME AND MODERATE PRICE INCREASE IN A PANDEMIC YEAR

• Prices of non-landed private residential properties (excluding Executive Condominiums (ECs)) in Q4 2020** saw the greatest quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) increase of 3.2% for 2020, bringing the full-year increase to 2.7% despite the economic turbulence.
• In 2020*, non-landed private residential sales volume (excluding ECs) totalled 17,830 units, 4.7% more than in 2019 and a surprisingly good showing in a year of crisis. Strong support from needs-based buyers and eligible HDB upgraders combined to form healthy demand, bolstering sentiment despite economic uncertainty and restrictions on the re-issuance of OTPs.
• There were 9,497 transactions in the primary market accounting for some 53.3% of total sales in 2020*, as developers pushed out new launches amid encouraging sales after Singapore exited the circuit breaker. While the secondary market was slower to regain momentum and trailed with 8,333 sales, sales caught up to some extent with some 2,904 units transacted in Q4* and 2,922 in Q3, more than three times the 760 units in Q2 2020 (Exhibit 1). The practicality of resale units due to its price discount, when compared to new sale units, and the greater choices available will continue to encourage sales.

While office rents continued to drop in the downbeat market, tenants seized the opportunity for better relocation options, resulting in high activity in the leasing market during the month. However, landlords further softened their approach and adopted a more realistic stance in negotiating leasing terms to secure tenants, so the majority of tenants tended to renew their leases. As a result, new take-up of Grade-A office space was at an exceptional low level during the month, particularly in the CBD area.

Amid the challenging economic environment,

While office rents continued to drop in the downbeat market, tenants seized the opportunity for better relocation options, resulting in high activity in the leasing market during the month. However, landlords further softened their approach and adopted a more realistic stance in negotiating leasing terms to secure tenants, so the majority of tenants tended to renew their leases. As a result, new take-up of Grade-A office space was at an exceptional low level during the month, particularly in the CBD area.

Amid the challenging economic environment, cost-competitiveness remains a pressing consideration for tenants. Going into 2021, we therefore expect to see a continuing decentralisation trend. We also foresee rising demand for co-working space, as more companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which have been heavily impacted by the coronavirus-induced recession to actively explore flexible leasing options.

自從泰國宣布進入緊急狀態以應對2019冠狀病毒病（COVID-19）疫情以來，已過一個多月。這場全球疫情對泰國經濟造成了嚴重衝擊，以至於泰國央行不得不將先前預測的2020年GDP成長預期從2.81兆至3兆美元下調至萎縮5.31兆至3兆美元。我們看到，不同的組織機構正在以各種方式應對這場危機，這可以說是迄今為止規模最大的職場實驗。一些公司…

自從泰國宣布進入緊急狀態以應對2019冠狀病毒病（COVID-19）疫情以來，已過一個多月。這場全球疫情對泰國經濟造成了嚴重衝擊，以至於泰國央行不得不將先前預測的2020年GDP成長預期從2.81兆至3兆美元下調至萎縮5.31兆至3兆美元。我們看到，不同的組織機構正在以各種方式應對這場危機，這可以說是迄今為止規模最大的職場實驗。.

一些公司正在調整員工的工作安排，讓員工輪流到辦公室上班和居家辦公。另一些公司則讓所有員工居家辦公。這極大地影響了企業和員工的工作方式，尤其是在一個對以往工作場所變革抵抗程度較高的國家。這也引發了人們對新冠疫情將對辦公地產市場產生長期影響的諸多疑問和判斷，其中不乏一些斷言辦公空間將走向消亡的極端論調。.

萊坊和泰國Peoplespace認為，以下動態將受新冠疫情影響，重塑辦公室格局。新冠疫情不太可能徹底顛覆或導致辦公室消亡。雖然疫情會促使人們更加審視並改變一些既有的市場行為，但其最深遠的影響在於推動和加速許多領先的辦公市場參與者早已開始的趨勢。.

“「當與病毒有關的限制放鬆時，我們預期會看到一些被壓抑的需求釋放，但這將反映出經歷大流行病和延長在家工作時間後，企業的偏好正在轉變，所有企業都可能會採取不同的方式」。”

由於亞太房地產市場保持相對健康，且中美簽署了第一階段貿易協議，我們對 2020 年抱持審慎樂觀的態度。之後，COVID-19 來襲，令市場陷入動盪，我們之前的許多預測也因此偏離正軌。今年的主旋律是大流行病，各種房地產資產類別的活動和表現與它們受病毒影響的程度息息相關。正如本報告所強調的，各地域和房地產類型都受到了禁售、限制以及隨之而來的經濟疲弱的影響。然而，當我們現在展望 2021 年及其可能帶來的潛在復甦時，以下六項趨勢可讓我們對未來有所瞭解：

由於亞太房地產市場保持相對健康，且中美簽署了第一階段貿易協議，我們對 2020 年抱持審慎樂觀的態度。之後，COVID-19 來襲，令市場陷入動盪，我們之前的許多預測也因此偏離正軌。今年的主旋律是大流行病，各種房地產資產類別的活動和表現與它們受病毒影響的程度息息相關。正如本報告所強調的，各地域和房地產類型都受到了禁售、限制以及隨之而來的經濟疲弱的影響。然而，當我們現在展望 2021 年及其可能帶來的潛在復甦時，以下六項趨勢可讓我們對未來有所瞭解：

1. 在家工作的實驗將留下持久的影響
2. 電子商務和供應鏈安全驅動的物流
3. 投資者可能會失望
4. 貨幣政策將繼續支持住宅市場
5. 不動產為「綠色復甦」做出貢獻
6. 美中關係將繼續對該地區發揮重要作用

由於部分員工在鎖定辦公室後傾向繼續在家工作，許多佔用人希望減少所佔用的辦公空間總量。這種佔用人偏好的改變，加上大量新供應，導致佔用人希望...

由於部分員工在鎖定辦公室後傾向繼續在家工作，許多用戶希望減少所佔辦公室空間的總量。佔用人偏好的這種變化，再加上大量的新供應，導致佔用人希望在新開發項目中獲得較小的辦公空間，使他們能夠提高辦公室的質量，同時也有可能降低總租金。然而，這種轉變將嚴重影響舊建築的業主，整個市場的出租率很可能會持續下降。.

由於大流行病的影響可能會持續到 2021 年，第一太平戴維斯預計將有更多的用戶尋求縮減辦公空間。考慮到這一點，加上未來五年內將有大量供應完成，大量用戶可能會尋求遷入新落成辦公大樓內的較小單位。.

中國與美國之間的貿易戰爭，促使台灣的科技與製造業公司重新思考過去嚴重依賴中國的供應鏈策略。台灣的科技產業自 2000 年起掀起一波波的離岸外包（off-shoring）熱潮，尤其是電子零組件與電腦產業，導致台灣的企業......

中美貿易戰促使台灣的科技與製造業公司重新思考過去嚴重依賴中國的供應鏈策略。台灣的科技產業自 2000 年起掀起一股外移到中國大陸的浪潮，尤其是電子零組件與電腦產業，導致中國出口到美國的前十大企業中，有四家源自台灣，包括富士康、廣達、和碩、仁寶電子。隨著貿易戰的緊張局勢升級，台灣企業正考慮將生產線遷移至東南亞和台灣，以分散其製造基地。.

由於本地終端用戶需求強勁，工業用地價格在過去五年穩步上揚。儘管全球經濟前景黯淡，我們相信 2020 年的平均工業地價仍可上漲 3%，尤其是在傳統上較便宜的地區。由於新北市和桃園的地價大幅上漲，科技企業不得不修改其工廠擴張計劃，將焦點放在價格較低廉的地區，例如台灣中部和南部的工業園區。我們的理由是，這些地區的工業用地預計在不久的將來會有更強勁的價格成長。.

零售項目被迫積極調整租戶品牌組合，以在競爭日益激烈的重慶零售項目群中脫穎而出。繼美羅公園於2020年上半年大幅調整品牌...

為了在競爭日益激烈的重慶商場項目中脫穎而出，商場項目被迫積極調整租戶品牌組合。.

繼美羅公園於 2020 年上半年進行大幅品牌調整後，購物商場積極在低區引入多個新零售品牌，如出租面積較高區大的兒童娛樂品牌、醫療美容機構及高級餐廳等，有助強化項目的品牌豐富度。.

2020年第三季度，位於解放碑子市場的星光廣場宣佈將正式啟動重大調整，全面更新商場定位及品牌品類，加速項目整合發展。此次調整將是項目自2015年開業以來的首次調整。.