市場展望

Results for Q4 2017:

Knight Frank’s Asia-Pacific Prime Office Rental Index increased 0.7% quarter-on-quarter and 1.1% yearon-year in the last quarter of 2017.

The increase in the index was the result of rising rents in 12 of the markets over the quarter, with rental declines experienced in four of the 20 markets tracked.

Over the next 12 months, we expect rents in 16 cities out of the 20 tracked to either remain steady or increase, which is the same as our previous forecast.

We expect Singapore’s property market to stabilize and strengthen over 2018, supported by broad-based GDP growth and an expected multi-year upcycle in the office and residential markets.

Physical supply in office, residential and industrial sectors is also easing from the oversupply situation of past years. Capital flows should remain buoyant as we expect interest rates hikes to be benign, and yield spreads are relatively attractive. Barring external shocks, we project a general uplift in rents and capital values over 2018, primarily driven by the office and residential sectors.

本報告重點介紹了2018年的主要投資主題：

1. 經濟成長加速，貨幣升值：馬來西亞和印尼的經濟成長速度在 2017 年超過預期，我們預計這些國家在 2018 年將帶來更多正面的驚喜。.
2. 我們預計新加坡和雅加達的辦公大樓市場將強勁復甦：過去三年租金下降了 20-301 兆令吉，但預計未來三年將上漲 10-251 兆令吉。. 
3. 新加坡、吉隆坡和胡志明市的住宅價格可能會意外上漲。.
4. 馬來西亞和印尼的基礎設施支出正在加速成長：我們預計這些基礎設施項目（其中一些是中國「一帶一路」倡議的一部分）將促進就業和經濟成長。.
5. 貨幣政策預計將保持中性至寬鬆，以支持經濟成長：儘管已開發經濟體在 2017 年逐步退出貨幣寬鬆政策，但東南亞各國政府在 2017 年通膨高企的情況下下調政策利率以刺激經濟成長，令市場感到意外。.
6. 東南亞 REIT 變革將擴大資本來源：我們預計未來兩年將有 10 家新的 REIT 機構成立，泰國可能將迎來第一個獨立 REIT 機構。.
7. 區域內資本流動可能會加快：日本、中國和韓國的投資者對東南亞資產的興趣日益濃厚；而菲律賓、泰國和馬來西亞的投資者則尋求在東南亞內部進行投資。.
8. 馬來西亞、印尼和越南可能繼續吸引最強勁的資本流入：2017 年，馬來西亞是東南亞最大的資本接收國，外國投資額達 10 億至 4.21 億美元，其次是越南和泰國。.

GPR/APREA AsiaPac Performance Snapshot 可追蹤 12 個亞太國家/地區和 8 個產業的上市房地產證券 (包括房地產投資信託基金) 在多個時間範圍內的動態。.

•  政府債券在 2018 年 2 月的負回報最少。.
•  過去五年來，股票與上市房地產的表現最為亮眼。.
•  以十年為基礎，房地產投資信託基金的表現優於競爭對手的資產類別，其次是上市房地產。.

This article will investigate Investment into real estate – China

1. Legal Landscape
2. Foreign investment
3. Common foreign investment structure
4. Recent de-regulation of real estate FIEs
5. Other recent developments
6. Our observations on market

預計2018年澳洲東岸市場（雪梨、墨爾本及布里斯本）新增及大型翻新物業供應量僅16萬平方米，相當於現有庫存少於1.51兆平方英尺。其中大部分位於墨爾本，且已預訂。鑑於商業信心保持積極態勢，我們預計儘管悉尼和墨爾本的供應有限，但市場需求仍將持續增長。因此，我們預計這三個市場的空置率都將下降，其中悉尼的空置率預計將在2018年底達到約3.1兆平方英尺，為25年來最低水準。.

Occupier demand in the CBD reached the highest in 11 quarters in 4Q17, bring ing the full year CBD net absorption to the highest in three years.

Residential market remained optimistic in 4Q17. Transaction volume pf strata units in the prime districts eased slightly 1-o-1 due to the year-end holiday period. 

Retail sales excluding motor vehicles recorded over two consecutive quarters of growth, likely a result of the seasonal timed sales.

Amid stable stock and as tenants physically moved into their new premises, the business park vacancy rate eased for the sixth consecutive quarter in 4Q17.

The “Project of the Century” will provide enormous opportunities in the built environment over the coming decades

Over the last two generations, we have seen a familiar trend of rising wealth and influence in Asia. It started with the Japanese in the 70s and was followed by the Koreans in 90s and the South East Asian “Tigers” in the early 2000s. For the past decade, China and India have been among the powerhouses of world economic growth. Given their ambitions and scale, they are both likely to be important contributors for a very long time.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is one of clearest manifestations of China’s vision and influence. The infrastructure and investment underpinning the BRI will streamline trade flows and lift economic activity in much of Asia, the Middle East, and North and Eastern Africa. While the vision will bring huge opportunities for investors and developers, the BRI will also change the face of corporate China, which will have an enormous influence in the 21st century as Chinese brands become household names around the world.

This report aims to bring some clarity to the initiative, with Knight Frank’s research teams developing a Belt and Road Index to rank 67 countries according to a number of key criteria, along with local analysis from a significant number of BRI markets. Our analysis shows that opportunities are widespread, with improving bilateral relations between BRI countries and China providing potential for real estate investment, development and business expansion. No doubt the BRI will provide further impetus to corporate China’s growth and influence in global markets.

With this report, we are taking crucial steps in being able to provide the highest level of advice around tangible opportunities along the BRI. We hope you find the report useful and insightful.

Take a look through the sixth edition of The Occupier Edge, authored by Cushman & Wakefield’s very own future thinking experts. In this everchanging environment, you must stay on your toes – that’s exactly what we are doing. At Cushman & Wakefield, we put our clients and our people at the center of what’s next.

In addition to blockchain and co-working, this edition of The Occupier Edge also touches upon how PropTech is disrupting the real estate industry, the multi-faceted approach of placemaking, and why GenZ is the future. We also feature how robotics are being used to improve user experience and efficiency of facilities.

如今，經營房地產投資組合面臨許多挑戰。利率開始上升，融資競爭異常激烈，物業估值不斷攀升，而投資者的預期收益卻在下降。然而，2018 年 Preqin 全球房地產報告的研究結果有助於我們理解這些問題背後的大背景。自全球金融危機以來，房地產資產類別蓬勃發展，並為絕大多數尋求在另類資產中實現收益多元化的投資者帶來了豐厚的回報。.