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On December 7, 2022, the Chinese government announced a 10-point plan signalling a shift away from its zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy. The measures were announced as China’s short term economic indicators continued to weaken, with local governments in particular coming under acute financial strain.

Retail and tourism are set to be the main beneficiaries of the policy easing. Given the performance of other Asia Pacific markets since their relaxation of pandemic-related policies, CBRE expects retailer expansion to pick up as early as Q2 2023, supported by rising demand for prime retail space and the bottoming out of shopping mall rents as infections gradually subside and the population adjusts to a living with COVID-19 policy.

With regard to the office market, the easing of pandemic restrictions will bring about an increase in site inspections. A rebound in office demand is likely to follow in another three to six months as occupiers’ business outlook brightens along with the economic recovery.

Improving economic fundamentals should boost commercial real estate investment volume in 2023, which will continue to be driven by domestic institutions. With the Five-Year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) standing at an historically low 4.3%, cheaper lending costs will strengthen China’s relative appeal to cross-border investors.

CBRE recommends long term core investors focus on built-to-rent multifamily, business parks and industrial parks around tier I cities, along with trophy office assets in Shanghai and Beijing. Opportunistic investors are advised to target distressed assets. Mainland China’s re-opening will eventually benefit the retail and hotel sectors in Hong Kong SAR, Japan and Thailand, as well as the student living and residential sectors in Australia.

本報告原刊登於 https://www.cbre.com.cn/en/insights/briefs/China-Brief–China%E2%80%99s-shift-from-zero-covid-to-reopening-seen-as-hugely-beneficial-to-real-estate

• Tenant enquiries and site visits increased in the surveyed period, largely driven by the retail and industrial sector. Activity in mainland China continued to be constrained by strict pandemic-related measures.
• Demand for both traditional and flex office space cooled as many occupiers switched to wait-and-see mode amidst the dimmer economic outlook. The appetite from industrial sector also decreased as respondents saw more consolidations.
• While the outlook for rents in Korea, Singapore and Australia turns more positive in the surveyed period, lagging markets like mainland China also expected a slower rental decline.
• Regional leasing sentiment remained largely stable. Although mainland China was the weakest performer, a more positive outlook is expected along with recent relaxation of zero COVID policy. Landlord strength continued to decline as the market shifted further in favour of tenants.

本報告原刊登於 https://www.cbre.com/insights/briefs/asia-pacific-market-sentiment-survey-december-2022

今年早些時候，世邦魏理仕開展了一項史無前例的全球調查，訪問了超過2萬名受訪者，涵蓋了從Z世代到嬰兒潮一代的各個年齡段，旨在了解他們未來的生活、工作和購物方式，以及這些變化將如何影響他們的房地產需求。其中，亞太地區的受訪者約有9000人。.

調查結果揭示了新的見解，這些見解可以用來指導房地產租戶和投資者的策略，並確保房地產能夠滿足用戶不斷變化的需求。.

亞太地區的主要調查結果包括：

居住

• 強烈的搬家意願：32% 居民希望搬家，其中市中心區域最受歡迎。
• 強勁的購屋意願：在計劃搬家的人中，有 66% 的人傾向於買房而不是租房子。
• 房屋選擇偏好轉變：66% 表示，健康和安全比價格更重要。                  

工作

• 人們希望有更大的彈性：85% 目前每週至少有三天在辦公室工作。
• 地理位置至關重要：75% 對位於市中心的辦公室感到滿意；55% 在郊區工作的同事也表達了同樣的感受。
• 工作場所品質至關重要：69% 的辦公室工作人員更重視工作場所品質。

店鋪

• 大多數消費者喜歡線下購物：61% 更傾向於在網上訂購前先到實體店查看商品。
• 個人財務前景樂觀：53% 預計未來一年他們的財務狀況將有所改善。
• 道德消費主義正在興起：80% 在購物時更關注環境和社會議題。

本報告原刊登於 https://www.cbre.com/insights/local-response/asia-pacific-live-work-shop-report-2022

重點總結

• 亞太地區國家繼續在生產地點排名中名列前茅，這主要歸功於當地勞動力資源豐富且成本低廉：排名前 12 的地區中，有一半位於亞太地區。.
• 與 2021 年相比，許多國家排名下滑，原因是成本增加（特別是勞動力和電力成本）和風險增加（經濟、政治和自然災害）；其中一些國家位於歐洲，烏克蘭戰爭對成本和風險因素產生了重大影響。.
• 隨著失業率持續下降，許多國家也面臨勞動力供應更加緊張的局面；這種情況影響了所有地理區域和經濟發展水平的國家，儘管亞太新興市場的主要生產地點繼續受益於不斷擴大的勞動力資源。.
• 許多國家——尤其是歐洲國家——提高了實現永續發展目標的能力，包括有效利用資源和創造綠色經濟機會，從而增強了其長期經濟前景和風險狀況。.
• 美國企業正以前所未有的速度將工作和供應鏈遷回國內。根據「回流倡議」（Reshoring Initiative）發布的報告顯示，美國企業今年預計將有近35萬個工作崗位遷回美國。.

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