市场前景

Flexible workspaces in India grew at a CAGR of 38% from 2017 to 2019, with many local and global operators entering the space, led by increasedFlexible workspaces in India grew at a CAGR of 38% from 2017 to 2019, with many local and global operators entering the space, led by increaseddemand from corporate occupiers or enterprise clients. As of end-February 2021, the total flexible workspace stock stood at 30 million squarefeet (2.8 million square meters), across the top six Indian cities. Due to muted demand amid uncertain conditions, 2020 saw flexible workspaceoperators lease 2.9 million square feet (269,000 square meters) of space, down by 75.8% from 2019. This was about 8.5% of the total leasingrecorded across the top six cities. Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Mumbai accounted for the bulk of transactions as some operators expanded theirfootprints, mainly in decentralized locations. Further, deals totalling around 1.7 million square feet (158,000 square meters), which were precommittedor in the final stages, were cancelled across the top six cities.

As of March 2021, about 65% of the desks on offer are leased, across the top flexible workspace operators’ portfolios. Though the bulk of thisspace is occupied by established corporates as opposed to freelancers or start-ups, and we think there is still scope for enterprise clients to takeupmore flexible workspace as operators are offering attractive prices for large or multi-location deals. The leasing period is currently about oneto two years as firms look at flexible workspaces as a temporary solution to accommodate their workforce until they finalize their expansion andfootprints beyond 2023.

高力国际在其最新的 2021 年展望报告中预计，印度房地产的机构投资将从 2020 年的 3,460 亿印度卢比（48 亿美元）增长 14.6%，达到 3,960 亿印度卢比（55 亿美元）。相比之下，2020 年比 2019 年减少了 23%。高力国际认为，机构投资者继续看好办公楼、数据中心和仓库等印度房地产资产类别，他们正寻求部署现有的干粉。.

“印度的投资环境非常活跃，全球投资者对房地产资产的兴趣日益浓厚。全球利率处于历史低位，而印度的净收益率为正数，因此印度已成为房地产投资的首选目的地之一。此外，印度市场的韧性还体现在各个市场持续良好的住房销售业绩、对商业办公楼和工业园区的大量机构投资，以及过去六个月中两家房地产投资信托基金的上市。’

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Hong Kong Island Grade-A office leasing demand remained soft in December amid weak economic conditions and the traditional offseason, but the overall market was buoyed by the professional sector, particularly the finance and legal service industries, which took up space in premium buildings in the CBD area. Two Chinese Mainland financial companies, the Bank of Dongguan and FountainVest Partners, leased an entire floor in Two IFC, which was previously occupied by Nomura Holdings. Medical companies also expanded their footprint in the core districts. A medical centre leased the entire top floor of 9 Queen’s Road Central to meet the increasing demand for healthcare and wellbeing. Given the weak economic situation, some tenants gave up more office space. With the current high vacancy rate of 7.8% on Hong Kong Island, we expect some landlords to soften their approach and be more willing to negotiate.

Kowloon Leasing activity in Kowloon continued to slow down in December. New lease transactions dropped by 20% on a monthly basis. Most of the leasing activity was in Kowloon East, at monthly rents below HK$25 per sq ft. While most industries have been largely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, the logistics industry has remained strong and is one of the winners. Some logistics companies have taken advantage of this golden opportunity in the downbeat market to expand and upgrade their work environment and location. A recent notable example was the relocation of logistics giant DHL. It moved out of Megabox and took up a 91,015 sq ft space in the premium Grade A office International Trade Tower in Kwun Tong, making it the largest new lease acquisition in the market so far in 2020.After reviewing its office requirements, DHL chose to reconfigure its work pattern and adopt agile work practices to achieve workplace size optimisation. Curtailed by the pandemic and economic uncertainty, tenants will continue to be cost-sensitive and seek cost-effective options in Kowloon. Given the approach of the traditional festive season and the continuing unstable COVID-19 situation, we expect leasing demand to remain soft and the current low-level leasing volume to last until at least Lunar New Year.

In this January 2021 issue, we take a look at the latest updates on the local commercial real estate market as well as share an outlook for the sector in 2021.

• While the gradual return to office is expected this year, the office segment may not immediately return to its pre-pandemic vibrancy as the uncertain global business environment may continue to affect expansion decisions of businesses over the short to medium term. The office segment, however, is seen to benefit from the anticipated growth of the IT-BPM sector with the United States’ less protectionist policies under its new administration.
  
• The new COVID-19 variant has caused renewed anxiety and further stalls the resumption of international travel. It is also seen to discourage domestic travel as the country extends the more stringent community quarantine qualification in major urban areas and tourist destinations, thus, further blurring the tourism industry outlook.

Q4 2020 was a crucial quarter as it marked a recovery momentum with leasing indicators trending favourably compared to the previous couple of quarters. In a time of change with COVID upending the workplace playbook, the leasing trends and occupier strategies are undergoing a rapid shift and will have a bearing on market activity. Even as the COVID scenario was evolving and occupiers continued with evaluating their real estate portfolios and charting their space requirements, almost all the cities saw heightened levels of market activity with expansion driven demand making a comeback of sorts as well.  Mumbai, Pune, Delhi NCR, Ahmedabad, and Kolkata have witnessed higher fresh leasing activity for expansion and consolidation during the last quarter of the year. This augurs well for the leasing momentum in 2021, which is likely to get broad-based across cities with introduction of a vaccine and a gradual return to the workplace providing the much-needed push to market activity. 

In this report, we analyse the Indian office markets’ performance in Q4 as well as during the full year of 2020.  

Although office leasing activity was generally more muted in Q4 compared to other quarters in the year, it was broadly similar to Q4/2019 levels.

• Demand for office space largely emanated from tenants looking for replacement space because of the need to move out of older buildings to be redeveloped, as well as tenants with office leases due for renewal.

• Owing to the uncertainties arising from the pandemic, tenants are continuing to adopt a wait-and-see approach and looking for clarity on trends to emerge on future workplace practices before deciding on future office space requirements.

• In Q4, the office market saw relatively significant leasing deals from technology companies. These companies are expected to continue expanding their presence in Singapore, which they deem as an attractive base due to its political stability, strategic position and strong economic fundamentals.

分层办公市场前景

•  2021 年，新加坡的分层办公楼市场和更大的办公楼市场预计仍将面临压力，因为在以不断发展的远程办公协议为特征的后大流行时代，企业将对办公空间的占用方式进行严格审查。因此，至少在今年的前六个月，交易量和价格可能会继续受到抑制。.
• 不过，随着写字楼用户对办公空间需求的合理化和规模化，小型企业等用户可能会转向业主自用的分层写字楼，将其作为租赁空间的可行替代方案。因此，2021 年下半年对分层办公楼，尤其是位于中心地段的分层办公楼的需求可能会有所改善。.

分层零售市场前景

• 展望未来，尽管已经分发了疫苗，但全球经济前景仍不明朗，其他国家仍会出现反复感染的情况。即使疫苗分发工作取得成功，预计新加坡分层零售单位的价格仍将保持疲软，由于缺乏游客和安全疏远措施仍在实施，预计将出现更多不良销售。.
• 预计对这些分层空间的需求将来自打算经营自己生意的业主，他们更愿意在分层零售开发项目的典型地点开店。与在同一地点的黄金购物中心租用零售空间相比，较低的成本往往是最大的诱因。.
• 因此，随着零售市场越来越倾向于采用更具体验性的场所营造战略，并将部分服务迁移到数字平台，地层零售店主也越来越有必要采取类似的方式，以便在不断变化的市场中求得生存。.

2020年对菲律宾房地产和全球房地产市场而言都是充满挑战的一年，但我们认为新的一年对于工业物流、办公楼、住宅、房地产投资信托基金（REITs）和数据中心等行业来说充满希望。工业物流板块是过去一年中最稳定的资产类别，电子商务和新冠疫苗的推广也带来了巨大的机遇。办公楼板块的表现有望优于2020年，而我们预计住宅房地产市场将呈现缓慢但渐进的复苏。.

2021年，电子商务蓬勃发展、灵活办公模式兴起以及马尼拉大都会以外地区持续去中心化等宏观趋势
这种情况可能会持续下去，并导致房地产市场复苏乏力。.

自2015年以来，菲律宾人口平均每年增长1.513万亿人次，是经济复苏的关键。这种增长创造了“人口黄金期”，并持续推动消费，尤其是在线零售及相关物流平台的扩张。随着外包业务的持续增长，菲律宾年轻的人口结构也将继续使该国保持在全球业务流程外包（BPO）行业的领先地位。.

全球经济

• 预计2020年全球经济增长将下降3.51万亿至3万亿美元，但预计2021年将增长5.51万亿至3万亿美元。
• 受益于疫苗的早期推广，发达经济体2021年有望增长4.31万亿至3万亿美元。
• 预计新兴经济体在2021年将增长6.31万亿至3万亿美元，而其基数已有所收缩。

印度经济 

• 受全球疫情和封锁措施的影响，印度2021财年GDP预计将下降7.713万亿美元。
• 受收入损失、出行限制和供应约束的影响，预计2021财年私人消费将萎缩9.513万亿卢比。
• 由于疫情救助计划中的支出增加，政府消费预计将增加 5.81 万亿至 3 万亿英镑。.
• 由于经济不确定性和资本项目实施延误，预计投资将减少14.51万亿至3万亿美元。

前景 

• 包括快速消费品、汽车销售和消费税征收在内的消费指标表明，第三季度需求复苏速度加快。
• 疫情后，由于消费模式的显著转变，医疗健康、制药、电信和科技（电子商务、金融科技、教育科技等）领域持续保持增长势头。
• 疫情导致人们更倾向于使用数字化服务，许多公司也开始采用数字化转型。
• 由于消费和投资的强劲增长以及基数效应降低，预计2022财年GDP将增长至1113万亿美元。