市场前景

It has been over a month since Thailand announced the state of emergency to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The global pandemic has created disruptions to the Thai economy to the extent that the Bank of Thailand has had to revise the previous 2.8% GDP growth projection to a 5.3% contraction for 2020. We are seeing a variety of ways in which different organizations are responding to the crisis as part of the largest workplace experiment conducted to date. Some companies are…

It has been over a month since Thailand announced the state of emergency to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The global pandemic has created disruptions to the Thai economy to the extent that the Bank of Thailand has had to revise the previous 2.8% GDP growth projection to a 5.3% contraction for 2020. We are seeing a variety of ways in which different organizations are responding to the crisis as part of the largest workplace experiment conducted to date.

Some companies are shuffling their staff, rotating their employees between entering the office and working from home schedules. Others have their entire staff working from home. This has radically impacted the way in which both organizations and employees work, especially in a country with a relatively high level of resistance to prior changes in the workplace. It has also led to many questions and judgements on the long-term impact that COVID-19 will have on the office property market, including those that radically proclaim the demise of the office.

The following dynamics are what we at Knight Frank and Peoplespace Thailand believe will shape the workplace as a result of COVID-19. COVID-19 most likely will not completely revolutionize or cause the death of the office. While the pandemic will lead to greater scrutiny and change in some prior market behavior, its most profound impact will be to drive and accelerate trends that were already underway for many of the leading office market participants.

“When virus-related restrictions ease, we expect to see the release of some pent-up demand, but this will reflect shifting preferences following the experience of the pandemic and extended working from home, with businesses all likely to take a different approach.”

We entered 2020 with cautious optimism as Asia-Pacific property markets remained relatively healthy and the phase one trade deal was signed between the US and China. Then COVID-19 struck, throwing markets into turmoil, and with it, knocking many of our previous forecasts off-course. This year has been dominated by the pandemic, with activity and performance of the various real estate asset classes linked to just how they have been impacted by the virus. As this report highlights, geographies and property types have all been influenced by lockdowns, restrictions, and the ensuing economic weakness. However, as we now look towards 2021 and the potential recovery it may bring, here are six trends that give a sense of what lies ahead:

We entered 2020 with cautious optimism as Asia-Pacific property markets remained relatively healthy and the phase one trade deal was signed between the US and China. Then COVID-19 struck, throwing markets into turmoil, and with it, knocking many of our previous forecasts off-course. This year has been dominated by the pandemic, with activity and performance of the various real estate asset classes linked to just how they have been impacted by the virus. As this report highlights, geographies and property types have all been influenced by lockdowns, restrictions, and the ensuing economic weakness. However, as we now look towards 2021 and the potential recovery it may bring, here are six trends that give a sense of what lies ahead:

1. Work-from-home experiment will leave a lasting impact
2. Logistics driven by e-commerce and supply chain security
3. Investors circling for distress may be disappointed
4. Monetary policy to remain supportive of residential markets
5. Real estate to contribute to the ‘Green Recovery
6. US-China relations to continue to be important for the region

Many occupiers are looking to reduce the total amount of office space they occupy, due to the preference for some employees to continue working from home following lockdown. This change in occupier preference, combined with the large amount of new supply, has resulted in occupiers looking to…

Many occupiers are looking to reduce the total amount of office space they occupy, due to the preference for some employees to continue working from home following lockdown. This change in occupier preference, combined with the large amount of new supply, has resulted in occupiers looking to secure smaller office spaces within new developments, enabling them to increase the quality of their offices whilst also potentially reducing their total rent. This shift will have a severe impact on landlords of older buildings, however and it is likely that occupancy rates across the market will continue to fall.

With the eff ects of the pandemic looking likely to continue into 2021, Savills expects to see more occupiers looking to reduce their office space. Considering this along with the large amount of future supply completing over the next five years, it’s likely a large number of occupiers will seek to relocate into smaller units within newly completed office buildings.

The trade war between China and the US has pushed Taiwan’s tech and manufacturing companies to rethink their supply chain strategies which used to rely heavily on China. Taiwan’s tech industry saw a large wave of off shoring to China from 2000, especially the electronic component and computer sectors, resulting in…

The trade war between China and the US has pushed Taiwan’s tech and manufacturing companies to rethink their supply chain strategies which used to rely heavily on China. Taiwan’s tech industry saw a large wave of off shoring to China from 2000, especially the electronic component and computer sectors, resulting in four of China’s top 10 companies exporting to the US originating from Taiwan, including Foxconn, Quanta, Pegatron, and Compal Electronics. As the trade war tensions have escalated, Taiwanese companies are considering relocating production lines to Southeast Asia and Taiwan in order to diversify their manufacturing base.

Industrial land prices have increased steadily over the past five years owing to the strong demand from local end-users. Although the global economic outlook is gloomy, we believe that the average industrial land price could rise by 3% in 2020, especially in traditionally cheaper areas. As land prices in New Taipei City and Taoyuan have increased significantly, tech corporates have had to modify their factory expansion plans to focus on more affordable areas, such as industrial parks in middle and southern Taiwan. We reason that industrial land in those areas is expected to witness stronger price growth in the near future.

Retail projected were forced to actively adjust their tenant brand mixes to stand out in the increasingly competitive crowd of retail projects in Chongqing. Following the Metro Park’s substantial brand adjustment in 1H/2020…

Retail projected were forced to actively adjust their tenant brand mixes to stand out in the increasingly competitive crowd of retail projects in Chongqing.

Following the Metro Park’s substantial brand adjustment in 1H/2020, the shopping mall actively introduced many new retail brands into its low zones, such as children’s entertainment brands, medical beauty institutions and fine dining establishments with larger leased areas than in the high zone, helping strengthen the brand richness in the project.

In Q3/2020, Starlight Plaza, located in the Jiefangbei submarket, announced that it would officially launch a major adjustment to comprehensively renew the positioning of the mall and brand categories to accelerate the integrated development of the project. This adjustment will be the first since the project opened in 2015.

Hyderabad has steadily risen to a position among the top three office markets of the country. In terms of office leasing volumes, it has progressed from being a distant sixth to its current position in a span of just three years. In 2019, the city registered record transaction activity of approximately 9.5 million sq ft, just behind Bangalore and the National Capital Region (NCR).

The rise in commercial leasing activity can be attributed to a variety of factors. These include government support by way of… 

Hyderabad has steadily risen to a position among the top three office markets of the country. In terms of office leasing volumes, it has progressed from being a distant sixth to its current position in a span of just three years. In 2019, the city registered record transaction activity of approximately 9.5 million sq ft, just behind Bangalore and the National Capital Region (NCR).

The rise in commercial leasing activity can be attributed to a variety of factors. These include government support by way of investor friendly policies and infrastructure growth matching urban agglomeration expansion; as well as enabling demographics which has created an abundant and skilled talent pool. Also, the influx of MNCs over the last two decades has been instrumental in setting up large campuses and office complexes in the city. In recent landmark legislation, the state government announced a single window portal facilitating faster clearances and self-certification for real estate construction on land parcels of a specific size. Such enabling regulations have provided an important boost to the real estate sector in the city.

While sentiment is weak, the lack of concluded transactions across the market makes it difficult to quantify rental movements. Most landlords have left asking rents at their previous level, however many are willing to discuss higher incentives once they are sure a potential tenant is serious. We have observed that there are requests from…

While sentiment is weak, the lack of concluded transactions across the market makes it difficult to quantify rental movements. Most landlords have left asking rents at their previous level, however many are willing to discuss higher incentives once they are sure a potential tenant is serious. We have observed that there are requests from occupiers / prospects for a more flexible lease term (less than three years) and have seen landlords considering exploring amortization of fit-out costs over a reasonably long lease term.

In June 2020, IGB Bhd announced the proposed establishment of a pure-play office asset REIT which is targeted to be completed by the end of 2020 / early 2021. The proposed IGB Commercial REIT is reported to involve the sale of ten properties, seven of which are in Mid Valley City and three in the Golden Triangle. This is the second REIT by IGB Bhd since the establishment of IGB REIT in 2012, comprising two prime retail assets; Mid Valley and The Gardens.

The online retail industry is expected to continue its upward trend, resulting in related companies introducing new growth strategies such as M&A and strategic partnerships.

Amazon, a global leader in online retail, has partnered with…

The online retail industry is expected to continue its upward trend, resulting in related companies introducing new growth strategies such as M&A and strategic partnerships.

Amazon, a global leader in online retail, has partnered with domestic telecommunications services provider SK Telecom to ship products directly to Korea. A subsidiary of SK Telecom, 11Street, will store selected products most purchased by Koreans in its own storage facilities to allow for direct shipping. While Amazon has been reluctant to enter Korea due to intense competition from local E-commerce platforms, it will indirectly establish a new base through the partnership.

Corporations are expected to reshuffle their logistics portfolios in response to shifting market trends. Any redundant centres will be put up for sale, while pursuing new development projects or signing long-term leases in core strategic locations. Higher activity levels in the leasing and investment markets are expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

Data centres are a vital part of ICT infrastructure for any digital economy. They provide a catalyst for the development of new content and applications and support the sustainable growth of more traditional pillar industries including financial services, trading and logistics. Given the city’s…

Data centres are a vital part of ICT infrastructure for any digital economy. They provide a catalyst for the development of new content and applications and support the sustainable growth of more traditional pillar industries including financial services, trading and logistics. Given the city’s reliable power supply, rich network connectivity, low climate risk, and strong data protection, Hong Kong is well positioned to serve as a regional data centre hub.

Hong Kong is among the best globally in terms of internet connectivity and bandwidth, with over a 270% mobile subscriber penetration rate1 , and has been one of the top three fastest cities in terms of average internet download speed over the past few years. There are three major players driving demand for data centres. First, cloud service providers such as Alibaba, Amazon and Microsoft are expanding as most enterprise users have started adopting cloud solutions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic if they weren’t before. Secondly, internet companies and application developers such as multimedia content providers or e-commerce players demand ample data storage capacity and plenty of data processing power given the growing importance of Big Data, industry 4.0, the Internet of Things and 5G.