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China is the world’s second-largest economy and its second-largest consumer market (13.1% in 2018) having overtaken Japan in 2005, as well as being one of the fastest-growing large markets. International retailers have been placing increased importance on the market with some making China its regional headquarters. Meanwhile…

China is the world’s second-largest economy and its second-largest consumer market (13.1% in 2018) having overtaken Japan in 2005, as well as being one of the fastest-growing large markets. International retailers have been placing increased importance on the market with some making China its regional headquarters. 

Meanwhile, domestic brands are growing in confidence, experience and markets share and have started to expand internationally. These brands, having grown up in China, are incredibly nimble and have a native understanding of the unique challenges and opportunities in China—from innovation speed, distribution and marketing channels (social ecommerce, live streaming, KOLs, etc.).

They are incredibly disruptive and innovative, as well as gaining in scale, number and influence. Gone are the days that China would look to the west for inspiration.

As COVID-19 continues to spread across the world without an end in sight, global capital markets have unsurprisingly been hit hard and the J-REIT market has suffered more than most. Yet, under the current circumstances, it is easy to forget that J-REITs had performed solidly up until 20 February – when the TSE REIT Index peaked at over 2,250 (Dividend: 3.5%, NAV: 1.28). Things swiftly changed thereafter, however, as the index lost around half of its value over the course of the following month, plummeting to 1,145 (Dividend: 6.8%, NAV: 0.69) by 19 March. A modest recovery to 1,640 (Dividend: 4.8%, NAV: 0.97) by 25 March notwithstanding, the index has hovered around the 1,500 mark (Dividend: 5.2%, NAV: 0.90) since the start of April – around 30% below its preCOVID-19 high. 

As reported in the semi-annual survey by the Japan Real Estate Institute (JREI) and BAC Urban Projects, rental growth in Tokyo’s prime retail submarkets on the whole was impressive during 2H/2019. Average 1F rents increased by 4.9% half-year-on-half-year (HoH) and 14.9% year-on-year (YoY). As for Non-1F rents, growth in this sector has yet again exceeded its typically more volatile 1F peer, rising 8.8% HoH and 15.9% YoY. As such, for the first time, non-1F rents in all submarkets sit above JPY30,000 per tsubo per month. At the submarket level, 1F rents in Ginza remain streets ahead of rivalling districts, whilst the spread between average non-1F rents remains tight.

新冠疫情持续打压写字楼租金，中环和金钟的租金同比分别下降18.61万亿令吉和22.21万亿令吉，连续第11个月下跌。由于当前租金大幅下调，注重成本的租户开始在低迷的市场中寻求更优惠的交易，从而带动了租赁活动的增加，高于上月水平。然而，在港岛东，由于写字楼空置率保持在较低水平（鲗鱼涌：0.51万亿令吉，北角：5.11万亿令吉），该地区的租金保持稳定。.
 

持续的新冠疫情无疑是影响亚太房地产市场第一季度的主要因素。疫情对整个地区的市场情绪造成了一定程度的冲击，但各国政府强有力的刺激计划和政策正在缓解疫情的影响，并且该地区许多行业都涌现出新的机遇。在香港，经历了长期的政治和经济不确定性之后，疫情进一步加剧了市场的下行压力，导致主要参与者持观望态度。同样，在新加坡，不确定性也开始限制住宅和商业地产市场的活跃度。流入印度房地产市场的私募股权资金已大幅减少，而对缅甸等充满活力的新兴市场的投资也已被搁置。.

From the fall of 2016, moderate expansion of Japan’s economy has continued. However, in 2018, the economy shifted to a stagnant trend and subsequently to continuous moderate slowdown since 2019 with a recession all but certain by the end of the year. Signs indicating a turnaround in the for-sale/transaction market for real estate in Japan, for example the decline in the contract rate of for-sale real estate and the bottoming out of transaction yields, have become conspicuous. It appears that the market has already peaked. The conditions of Japan’s real estate rental market continue to improve. However, a turnaround has become apparent in terms of hotels and retail facilities, suggesting that the market will turn toward recession with some time lag.

The region’s key long-term investment attributes remain in-place:

– Economic Growth & Business Expansion

– Infrastructure Investment

– Increasing Connectivity

– Virtuous Cycle Between Income and Consumption