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India has long been recognised as a country with immense potential, but it was often hindered by bureaucracy and red tape. In recent years, however, India has made laudable strides, with its economic growth leapfrogging other major countries, in part driven by concerted government-led reforms and sector-focused initiatives that have shaped a more business-friendly climate, particularly for foreign investment.

Today, India has forged ahead into a new era, and the country holds much promise with the largest youth population in the world1 and the second largest labour force2 globally. Investors can look forward to sustained returns from key beneficiaries of these structural advancements, particularly in the Office and Business Park sector.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.capitaland.com/en/about-capitaland/newsroom/inside/2023/January/Riding_the_Growth_Impetus_A_Focus_on_Indias_Office_and_Business_Park_Sector.html

暴风雨云密布

2023年,亚太房地产市场面临多重挑战。首先是外部挑战:乌克兰战争加上新冠疫情后供应链中断,推高了通胀,迫使各国央行加息,从而抑制了经济增长。这一点在美国和欧洲尤为明显,这两个市场是亚洲出口产品的最终需求市场。其次是区域内部挑战,主要集中在亚太地区最大的经济体——中国。中国贡献了亚太地区531万亿至3万亿美元的GDP,几乎占亚太地区所有制成品的三分之一。低增长,加上由于“零新冠”政策和更为强硬的政治方向,中国变得更加孤立,导致房地产资本失去了大量的投资机会,而流出中国大陆的资金也已大幅减少。最后,还有长期的结构性挑战,涉及人们的工作和购物方式,以及新技术如何打破资产类别之间的旧界限,并在创造性破坏的浪潮中创造新的界限。这种情况在全球市场都似曾相识。.


一线希望

当然,亚洲并非唯一面临充满挑战的2023年——这一年经济增长低于预期,距离新冠疫情前的正常水平还有一段距离。然而,与全球经济,尤其是美国和欧洲相比,亚洲的优势就显而易见了。北美和欧洲在2022年末/2023年初面临衰退之际,亚太地区许多地区将实现温和增长,部分地区甚至会出现增长。由于通胀未能像其他地区那样扩大,预计利率上升速度也会放缓。得益于二十国集团巴厘岛峰会,地缘政治紧张局势也在缓和。一系列因新冠疫情而暂时搁置的贸易协定,也将有助于加速疫情后的复苏,因为供应链正在修复,该地区的低成本优势将增强其竞争力。尽管‘另类资产类别’在该地区蓬勃发展,但其他颠覆性因素,如灵活办公和在线零售,其带来的收益却不如其他地区。与此同时,亚太地区的大部分地区仍在享受追赶式增长的优势,例如东南亚和印度部分地区,这些地区获得了巨大的经济增长。.

光线

展望2023年,三大市场格局不太可能发生改变,但这并不意味着缺乏机遇,恰恰相反。在通胀环境下,亚洲较短的租赁期限应该会更具吸引力,而与指数挂钩的防御型行业,例如自助仓储、学生公寓、多户住宅和养老社区,应该会受到投资者的青睐。‘新经济’依然充满活力。.

在日本,低利率和疲软的日元将继续吸引海外资本,物流资产和多户住宅将成为投资目标,而酒店有望在 2023 年成为交易活跃的资产类别。.

与此同时,新加坡正崛起为该地区的‘地缘政治安全区’,不断壮大其金融服务基础,吸引私人家族办公室,并受益于香港人才外流。越南则持续受益于新冠疫情限制措施的解除以及‘中国+1’政策,预计2023年经济规模将达到令人瞩目的413万亿美元。.

澳大利亚是亚洲主要的资源型经济体,其高收益率、相对于主要市场的强劲增长以及澳元走软等因素,应能吸引海外投资者。值得关注的行业包括物流、核心办公楼以及一系列另类投资。.

在中国,如同该地区其他地方一样,生命科学、数据中心、物流和冷链投资的吸引力丝毫未减,因为结构性驱动因素依然强劲。即使在低通胀和低利率环境下,负债累累的企业可能会出售不良资产,但定价仍然存在争议。.

展望2023年,如果不提及ESG(环境、社会和治理),那就不完整。无论你喜欢还是讨厌它,它都将成为常态,预计未来将出现更多ESG承诺,更多ESG举措将被纳入所有资产类别的投资策略中。.

本文最初发表于 https://www.savills.co.jp/research_articles/167577/209583-0

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本报告旨在引导租户参与其 ESG 之旅,使业主能够更好地与租户协调并建立更牢固的合作关系,并指导租户通过其房地产最大限度地发挥其绿色潜力。.

本报告最初发表于 https://apac.knightfrank.com/esgmattersapac

CBRE’s 2022-23 Global Fit-Out Cost Guide is the industry’s most comprehensive analysis of fit-out pricing globally. This year’s edition focuses on the global changes in work models and the challenges faced as a result of the pandemic, climate change and heightened economic uncertainty.

The global shift in workplace behaviors has resulted in new ways of thinking about the construction of offices. Companies have adopted hybrid work models, and people need a blend of flexible, team and event spaces. Likewise, many companies have set net-zero carbon targets, expanding real estate sustainability strategy beyond energy savings to include decarbonization and Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria.

But with the changes there have been challenges. The lingering effects of COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine have led to economic and supply chain uncertainty, which affects the fit-out market by diminishing budgets amid inflation and causing long lead times in procurement.

CBRE introduced our Fit-Out Cost Guide in 2013 as a benchmarking tool to support planning and investing in capital fit-out projects. This year our cost guide leverages more quality data than ever before, with input from strategic partners.

The 2022-23 guide provides insight into global market trends, with regional data from APAC, EMEA, North America and Latin America.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/global-office-fit-out-cost-guide-2022-2023

尽管2020年中国约有1.5亿人租房居住,但该国多户租赁公寓的普及率仍然很低,不足2100万套。然而,随着中国人口结构的演变、住房消费需求的转变以及政府各项政策的支持,预计到2030年,多户租赁公寓的数量将增加到1200万套以上。.

世邦魏理仕认为,该行业强劲的租赁基本面以及资产流动性和可扩展性的潜力,将确保多户住宅在未来十年成为中国最具吸引力的商业房地产投资资产类别之一。.

中国约四分之三的目标多户住宅用户集中在广东、上海、北京、浙江和江苏,因此建议投资者重点关注这三大沿海城市群的核心市场。选址还应考虑公共交通的便利性和通勤时间。在中国,多户住宅租赁投资的主要方式包括收购和改造现有资产、新建项目开发以及平台合作。.

经济适用房兼具政策导向和市场导向的特点。中国房地产投资信托基金(C-REITs)提供的退出渠道;非住宅住房转为租赁住房的监管审批;以及优惠的税收和信贷政策,将为该行业带来独特的投资优势。.

在运营方面,世邦魏理仕建议投资者通过积极的管理措施来提高投资回报,例如批量采购、数字化租赁和运营系统、楼层平面图重新配置和增值服务。.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/investing-in-china-multifamily-real-estate

经济

预计在消费支出和企业资本投资的推动下,日本经济将在2023年继续温和复苏。然而,由于产出缺口仍为负值,日本央行已明确表示,短期内将维持宽松的货币政策。如果经济复苏能够带动企业盈利和实际工资的增长,从而维持温和的通胀,那么转向更紧缩的货币政策的可能性将会增加。然而,市场普遍认为,即便出现这种情况,最早也要到2023年下半年才会发生。.

办公室

尽管2022年企业搬迁至高档写字楼的数量有所增加,但缩减规模和合并的现象仍然普遍存在,导致空置率总体呈上升趋势。随着越来越多的公司倾向于实施混合办公模式,租户在选择办公空间规格时可能会比以往更加挑剔。由于预计大多数城市的办公空间供应量将会增加,市场租金可能会继续下降。.

零售

2023年,银座商业街市场仍将主要受奢侈品品牌需求驱动。虽然商业街租金似乎已经触底并维持在低位,但预计在2022年第四季度将再次开始上涨,并在此后继续缓慢增长。.

物流

由于开发商更加重视物流地产,预计2023年日本各地将出现前所未有的新增供应量。因此,尽管租户对物流空间的需求依然强劲,但预计四大都市圈的空置率都将上升。.

投资

预计2022年日本商业地产交易量将略低于上年水平。尽管如此,预期收益率持续下降,表明投资者需求依然稳定。受海外利率上升以及对美国和欧洲可能出现经济衰退的担忧影响,部分投资者在选择投资标的时变得更加谨慎。然而,日本央行短期内似乎不太可能收紧货币政策,预计2023年日本房地产市场需求将保持强劲。.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/japan-major-report-japan-market-outlook-2023

尽管疫情的影响已逐渐消退,但2022年依然是动荡的一年,乌克兰战争、随之而来的能源危机以及持续的通货膨胀导致利率上升等事件频发。全球经济衰退的可能性很大,但由于日本经济重启较晚,其表现预计会更好。日本的大多数投资者仍在寻求新的投资机会,预计2023年将有更多投资者加入。日趋成熟的日本市场将迎来更加多元化的投资者群体,这将提升市场的流动性,并带来更大的增长潜力。.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.savills.co.jp/research_articles/167577/209392-0

On December 7, 2022, the Chinese government announced a 10-point plan signalling a shift away from its zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy. The measures were announced as China’s short term economic indicators continued to weaken, with local governments in particular coming under acute financial strain.

Retail and tourism are set to be the main beneficiaries of the policy easing. Given the performance of other Asia Pacific markets since their relaxation of pandemic-related policies, CBRE expects retailer expansion to pick up as early as Q2 2023, supported by rising demand for prime retail space and the bottoming out of shopping mall rents as infections gradually subside and the population adjusts to a living with COVID-19 policy.

With regard to the office market, the easing of pandemic restrictions will bring about an increase in site inspections. A rebound in office demand is likely to follow in another three to six months as occupiers’ business outlook brightens along with the economic recovery.

Improving economic fundamentals should boost commercial real estate investment volume in 2023, which will continue to be driven by domestic institutions. With the Five-Year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) standing at an historically low 4.3%, cheaper lending costs will strengthen China’s relative appeal to cross-border investors.

CBRE recommends long term core investors focus on built-to-rent multifamily, business parks and industrial parks around tier I cities, along with trophy office assets in Shanghai and Beijing. Opportunistic investors are advised to target distressed assets. Mainland China’s re-opening will eventually benefit the retail and hotel sectors in Hong Kong SAR, Japan and Thailand, as well as the student living and residential sectors in Australia.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com.cn/en/insights/briefs/China-Brief–China%E2%80%99s-shift-from-zero-covid-to-reopening-seen-as-hugely-beneficial-to-real-estate

  • Tenant enquiries and site visits increased in the surveyed period, largely driven by the retail and industrial sector. Activity in mainland China continued to be constrained by strict pandemic-related measures.
  • Demand for both traditional and flex office space cooled as many occupiers switched to wait-and-see mode amidst the dimmer economic outlook. The appetite from industrial sector also decreased as respondents saw more consolidations.
  • While the outlook for rents in Korea, Singapore and Australia turns more positive in the surveyed period, lagging markets like mainland China also expected a slower rental decline.
  • Regional leasing sentiment remained largely stable. Although mainland China was the weakest performer, a more positive outlook is expected along with recent relaxation of zero COVID policy. Landlord strength continued to decline as the market shifted further in favour of tenants.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/insights/briefs/asia-pacific-market-sentiment-survey-december-2022

亚太地区的主要办公楼市场总体上展现出韧性,一些市场需求稳定,另一些市场供应激增——印度的一些城市则同时经历了需求和供应的激增。.

自新冠疫情爆发以来,亚太办公楼市场持续展现出强劲的韧性。自2019年底以来,亚太地区前25大市场累计吸纳了1.53亿平方英尺(msf)的办公空间,其中2022年前九个月的吸纳量就达到了4700万平方英尺。事实上,亚太地区是疫情期间唯一一个连续几个季度实现净吸纳量为正的地区。.

总体而言,这一趋势将持续,但各地情况难免会有所不同。预计2022年全年办公楼需求将达到6500万平方英尺,与2021年的6300万平方英尺基本持平,远高于2020年疫情期间的低点。预计2023年将略有改善,净吸纳量预计将达到7100万平方英尺(同比增长9100万亿英镑),之后增长将稳定在每年约5100万亿英镑,直至2026年。尽管这代表着强劲的需求,但与此同时,由于疫情初期延误的项目重新获得动力,供应量也大幅增加。继2022年新增1.12亿平方英尺供应之后,预计2023年还将新增1.3亿平方英尺,之后从2024年起增速放缓至不足1亿平方英尺。不可避免地,由于短期内供应超过需求,预计区域空置率将进一步下降,从疫情前的 12.5% 上升到 2023 年的略高于 18%,之后预计将保持稳定。.


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