市場展望

The COVID-19 pandemic brought the logistics sector abruptly into the global spotlight. With increased attention on the sector, both in 2020 and in the near-term, this report focuses on key drivers for the sector, recent market performance and an outlook for the industry.

Growth drivers

• At the ground level, ongoing population growth and economic expansion will drive the global middle class almost to double over the next decade. This increased level of consumption, together with the accelerated shift to e-commerce, will fundamentally drive the need for stronger, more resilient and more diverse supply chains. Ongoing development of transport infrastructure will be critical to ensure market connectivity.
• A shortage of labor in some markets, especially across Europe, together with a sharper focus on Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) priorities, will force accelerated adoption of technology to bring greater efficiencies and transparency. Similarly, the use of third-party logistics (3PL) operators will continue to grow as they provide corporations with opportunities for greater nimbleness and flexibility in meeting consumer demand. 
• Geo-politics will continue to shape the global trade environment. Many short-term interim solutions have been put in place to safeguard against recent trade flow disruptions, but complete roll out of new supply chain solutions will take years as corporates weigh opportunities for reshoring and demand/supply drivers.

Leasing Market

• Industrial markets have proved resilient in 2020, and demand remained robust, despite economic growth figures being amongst the worst on record. Accordingly, industrial/logistics vacancy has remained tight across the world, although this has been due, in part, to limited development supply pipelines.
• Notwithstanding, rental growth has remained comparatively elusive across the world with less than half of the markets tracked recording growth in 2020 but this varies in and within regions. While this may not be surprising in light of the pandemic, it also reflects the longer-term stagnation in rents, with less than half of the global markets having achieved more than 2.5% rental growth per annum since 2017. However, this is expected to change with increased cost pressures being exerted on landlords; not least of all being higher acquisition costs and increased land taxes and infrastructure charges.  

見通し

• Demand drivers highlight gaps in supply chains that can potentially be addressed by the expanded range of logistics asset types. To the extent supply chains connect production to consumption, these gaps can be in the same or across multiple regions. 
• Structural trends fueling demand over the long-term are also being accelerated by both business and consumer reactions to the pandemic. The investor outlook, therefore, is continued strong capital and income returns, with the latter likely to increase in contribution. 
• The combination of strong demand and supply chain reconfigurations to enhance efficiencies puts a sharper focus on land availability for new development. This will be a fundamental issue that needs to be addressed for real estate to meet the future needs of the sector. 

新冠疫情的爆发新冠疫情的爆发给全世界造成了空前的损失 。 在亚太地区即使各国各政府采取了许多有效的经济稳定措施 但这依然导致了自大萧条以来最严重的经济衰退 亚太的几个主要经济体也经历了十多年来的首次收缩 。 不过 尽管这一场严重的危机可能仍会持续一段时间 但亚太地区长期增长的基本面并不会因此改变 。亚太地区人口众多加之 城市化进程发展空前迅速 这些都将推动中产阶级 以及 消费 周期的增长 。 因此 不动产行业将成为该地区 的一个 结构性 发展 趋势 且 将一直持续下去 同时 它也将超越 新冠疫情 所带来 的影响期 。 从 疫情 带来的不利影响得到遏制到经济进入 长期 复苏阶段 基础设施投资和 不动产 投资信托 基金 REITs 在其中发挥了重要的作用 它们见证了 亚太地区 从 新冠疫情中 复苏 并保持经济发展 的这一转变过程 。

塑造未来

投资投资基础设施 建设 仍然是政府用来刺激经济的强大 工具 。 它之所以 有 效 不仅 因为基建 领域 的合理 投入 增加了短期需求 同时 也为未来的经济增长奠定了 优良的 基础 。 国际货币基金组织预计 如果各国在未来五年内 对 基础设施 领域的投资额 增加 到占 GDP 的 约 1 的水平 则 全球 GDP 总值 可能会增长近 2 。 1此类公共投资不仅 加速经济恢复的步伐 为创造就业机会和提高就业率 带来了积极 的 动能 同时也在跨境领域产生了明显的回响 。 总体而言 通过持续的基础设施投资活动 亚太地区的经济将 更加 活跃 此领域也应该 成为 未来 经济计划中的基石用以 实现经济的可持续复苏 并推动 有益的 经济转型 。

We see Hong Kong’s cold storage market having strong demand and limited supply over the next five years. For example, the retained imports of frozen food has grown ata CAGR of 11%1 from 2016 to 2020, despite cold storage space (by sq ft GFA) growing at a CAGR of a mere4%2 over the same period.Kwai Chung stands out as one of the most promising sub-markets, accounting for 44% of the licensed cold stores space that is well connected via the highway network.We recommend investors consider three strategies to enter this sector:

• Built-to-suit, either on bare industrial land or redeveloping existing industrial buildings.

• Sale-and-leaseback, purchasing an existing asset and leasing it back to the original owner.

• Conversion from existing industrial assets, by adding state of the art technology to capture greater investment returns.

A Comprehensive Take on Major Transit-Oriented Infrastructure Projects with Key Impact Markets

Bengaluru is one of the major economic growth engines of India. It contributes more than one-third to Karnataka’s Gross State Domestic Product and is a major driver for job creation in the state. Apart from earning the age-old moniker of being India’s IT capital, it is now the start-up capital of India and a leading fintech hub. Owing to the huge economic opportunities, job creation and projected population increase from 11.69 million in 2011 to 16.48 million by 2021, the need to expand and upgrade the Bengaluru Metropolitan Region’s (BMR)’s infrastructure and public services has never been as pronounced as it is now. Particularly, the urban mobility infrastructure.

The ‘Bengaluru Urban Infrastructure Report 2020 –A comprehensive Take on Major Transit Oriented Infrastructure Projects and Key Impact Markets provides an insight into the aforementioned transport infrastructure projects. The report analyses their impact on the real estate market in terms of locations that will see increased real estate traction due to mounting demand. We have looked into the role that regulatory interventions and systematic execution of planned transport infrastructure plays, alongside the organic development of the city. While the debate on urban infrastructure has moved beyond transport and on to other factors that affect the sustainability of the environment and impact air and water, transport infrastructure remains a prominent factor that affects the real estate market.

Despite experiencing four waves of COVID-19 outbreaks and its economic worse performance on record, Hong Kong is poised for further growth. Given a sharp rebound of GDP by 7.9% in Q1 2021, and a forecast of 3.5-5.5% growth for 2021, the commercial real estate market stands out with a positive outlook while adjusting to some “new normals”

– The vacancy rate for Large Multi-Tenant (LMT) logistics facilities in the Greater Tokyo area rose by 0.6 points q-o-q to 1.1% in Q1 2021, marking the first time the vacancy rate has exceeded 1% since reaching 1.1% in Q4 2019. Although the unprecedented surge in demand for facemasks and other daily necessities triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic led to stronger competition for logistics space in 2020, activity now appears to have eased.  That said, overall demand remains stable.

– The LMT vacancy rate in the Greater Osaka area fell to 1.9% in Q1 2021, down 1.8 points q-o-q. This marked the first time the vacancy rate has dropped below 2% since Q2 2016, when it also stood at 1.9%. The fact that rents have risen by 13% over the past two years, combined with increasing uncertainty over future economic performance, has meant that tenants are becoming more cautious, slowing the pace of rent increase.

– The LMT vacancy rate in the Greater Nagoya area fell by 1.7 points q-o-q to 8.6% this quarter. With some 170,000 tsubo of new floor space coming available in 2022, owners are stepping up their promotional campaigns to attract tenants.

– This quarter, CBRE has initiated the publication of LMT indices for the Greater Fukuoka area, where the vacancy rate has remained at 0.0% since Q2 2019. With development of multiple new LMT facilities now underway, properties possessing more user-friendly layouts will command an advantage over the competition.

• Industrial GVA was negative at -6.7% Q4 2020.
• Average super prime industrial rents were up 0.4% across the quarter. Australian super prime rents average $113/sqm
• Super prime yields have compressed by 57 bps y-o-y resulting in record low yields
• Land values for 1.6ha lots increased by 2.5% q-o-q averaging $570/sqm while 0.25ha lots increased by 5.4% q-o-q to $719/sqm.
• Transaction volumes. Transaction volumes above $5m totalled $393m across 18 transactions. This is 78% down on volumes recorded in Q1 2020.

• Investment sentiment has improved since the abolition of double stamp duty in November 2020.
• Property funds accounted for 33% of investment volume in Q1 2021, including half of the ten largest deals.
• Industrial transactions represented 43% of total investment volume, the highest proportion since Q4 2005.
• CBRE expects new standard rates for lease modification for industrial redevelopment to boost investment in the sector this year.

• While there were still companies such as those from the technology sector looking to expand their operations, other tenants are in the process of contemplating ‘rightsizing’ as they adopt remote working practices.

• Leasing activity also came from tenants looking for replacement space as they are being forced to move from older buildings slated for redevelopment later this year. Moreover, due to the construction delays in upcoming new buildings, tenants with expiring leases in the near term may renew their leases or look for alternative space now.

• Sentiment amongst landlords of Grade A offi ces has been bolstered by delays in new supply, more workers returning to offi ces as limits on remote working measures get lifted and a healthy offi ce investment market.

• The overall vacancy rate in Savills basket of CBD Grade A offi ce buildings continued to increase for a fourth straight quarter by 0.3 of a percentage point (ppt) to 7.3% in Q1/2021.

• In Q1/2021, although the URA’s offi ce rental index for the Central Region showed a 3.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) increase, the average monthly rent in Savills basket of CBD Grade A offi ces fell for a fi fth consecutive quarter, albeit at a moderated pace of 1.2% QoQ, to S$9.41 per sq ft. We maintain our -5% YoY rental forecast.