思想引领

Japan is the third most sought-after investment destination within APAC for Singapore-based investors, only trailing behind the Chinese Mainland and Australia.

Between 2013 and 2023, an estimated USD 16.2 billion has been injected into Japan’s commercial real estate (CRE) market. Significantly, 12% of this capital influx occurred in the first half of 2023, highlighting a pronounced surge in investor interest.

How have the Japanese government’s monetary policies impacted real estate investors?

The Japanese government’s monetary policies to stimulate domestic inflation have proven to be a significant advantage for real estate investors. This is particularly evident as the Japanese yen has recently touched multi-year lows compared to major global currencies. This trend has created a favorable environment for those in the real estate market.

Despite recent adjustments to its yield curve control targets, the yen’s depreciation against the Singapore dollar was unmistakably pronounced, hitting an unprecedented low in 2023. The added firepower has put Singapore as the top cross-border investor in Japanese real estate so far this year.

Following the lifting of pandemic control measures at the end of 2022, China’s consumer market has rebounded strongly. National total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 8.2% y-o-y in H1 2023, with the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reaching a record-high 77.2%. Domestic demand is now firmly established as the main engine of economic growth.

At the same time, the impact of COVID-19 on the consumption, lifestyles, and values ​​of domestic residents is accelerating the emergence of structural trends that will have a far-reaching impact on the retail sector in areas ranging from store strategy to sustainable development. These trends will also influence demand for retail properties and asset management.

This report by CBRE identifies the main trends characterising China’s retail property market in the post-pandemic era and provides recommendations for retail occupiers, investors and developers preparing to navigate what will be a critical period for the cyclical recovery of China’s retail market and normalisation of domestic consumption.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/retail-in-the-post-pandemic-era-trends-and-opportunities

Retail leasing demand in the world’s leading retail markets continues to rebound as economic activity recovers in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Tokyo retail market is no exception, with a resurgence in retailer demand having commenced in H2 2022.

In addition to existing retailers looking to increase their store numbers, several overseas brands have made their first ventures into the Japanese market. As was the case prior to the pandemic, Tokyo continues to be a preferred location for retailers seeking to establish or extend their store presence.

This report compares Tokyo with several of the world’s other major retail markets including New York, London, Paris, Milan, Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Singapore and explores the following factors that make Tokyo, and Japan as a whole, an attractive location for retailers to establish stores.

Tokyo: Rents are reasonable when compared to city GDP
Japan: E-commerce ratio as a percentage of total retail sales is low
Japan: Inbound tourist numbers and tourist consumption have demonstrated considerable scope for growth

本报告最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/insights/viewpoints/tokyo-the-city-of-choice-for-retailers

亚太地区的一级和二级数据中心市场继续积极扩张，整个地区有 9.7GW 已投入运营，3.3GW 在建，8.5GW 处于规划阶段。.

北京、香港、孟买、首尔、上海、悉尼和东京这些惯常的主要市场，尽管因缺乏地块和电力供应而面临不利因素，但仍在继续增长。因此，作为扩张战略的一部分，正在对辅助地点进行评估。新加坡的 IT 容量受暂停令限制，导致市场需求得不到满足，并蔓延到柔佛等近岸市场。同样，大雅加达地区庞大的开发量也得益于其在东南亚的中心地理位置，而该国巨大的人口增长也使其对主要投资者和运营商保持了吸引力。.

全球云服务提供商（CSP）继续对本地区的二级市场表现出明显的兴趣。超大规模的 CSP 已计划进驻奥克兰、曼谷、釜山、吉隆坡、大阪、浦那和台北等二级市场。 主机代管运营商、开发商和投资者倾向于跟随 CSP 进入新领域，部署自己的数据中心，这将使二级市场吸引新的参与者，并在未来几年实现快速增长。.

亚太地区数据中心的发展速度各不相同，因此，我们首次推出了亚太地区数据中心市场成熟度指数，每季度跟踪一些著名市场的发展变化。本报告将深入探讨 12 个著名市场：东京、孟买、悉尼、新加坡、首尔、柔佛、雅加达、香港、马尼拉、曼谷、奥克兰和胡志明市。.

Institutional investors have continued to pose faith in the Indian real estate sector despite the global headwinds, including uncertainty over economic growth and geopolitical tensions. The rise in investment inflow is an indication of the growth opportunities as India continues to emerge as a bright spot among international markets.

The country’s property sector has attracted over USD 2.9 bn/USD 2,939 mn worth of investments across 22 deals during H1 2023. The average deal size of investments increased by 17% to USD134 mn compared to USD115 mn, an aggregate of 2022, according to JLL. The investment pattern continues to be robust and is expected to cross USD 5 bn in CY 2023, which has been the annual trend pre-covid and in 2022.

Key highlights of the report:

• H1 2023 witnessed significant increase in domestic capital to 44% share of the total investment compared to 18% in 2022
• Office sector remained the most favoured sector with a major share of 66%
• Residential sector attracted investments of USD 512 mn across nine deals in H1 2023
• Warehousing attracted investment of USD 366 mn i.e.,80% higher than H1 2022
• USD 2,792 mn of platform commitment announced across 4 deals in H1 2023 to be invested in the next few years
• Successful listing of India’s first retail REITs with 81% anchor contribution by major domestic insurance companies, mutual funds, and pension schemes

近年来，在消费者信心高涨、楼盘供应充足、价格竞争力强以及利率环境有利等因素的推动下，住宅市场持续开启增长新篇章。2023年上半年强劲的销售业绩充分印证了住宅市场的强劲势头，两个季度均售出超过6.2万套住宅。.

值得注意的是，2023年第二季度销量超过64,500套，环比增长41万亿至3万亿美元。有趣的是，过去一年中，住宅销售额每个季度都在持续攀升，创下新高。与此趋势相符，2023年第二季度销量超过了2023年第一季度创下的历史最高纪录，成为自2008年以来最高的季度销量。.

2023年第一季度和上半年住宅市场的主要趋势：

• 得益于高质量的产品上市，季度销售额创下新纪录。
• 2023年上半年住宅销售额飙升至15年来的最高水平
• 高端公寓的销售呈现上升趋势
• 2023年第二季度和2023年上半年新产品发布量依然保持强劲势头。
• 班加罗尔、孟买和浦那的销售额占季度销售额的 62%。
• 强劲的需求推动印度七大城市资本价值上涨。

2023年第二季度，印度七大主要城市的办公楼租赁总面积达1270万平方英尺，延续了上一季度的市场增长势头，凸显了印度办公楼市场的韧性。与上半年相比，租赁总面积也增长了2.51万亿平方英尺，表明印度办公楼市场明显免受全球经济逆风的影响。.

净吸纳量环比增长41万亿至3万亿美元，但鉴于全球经济不确定性带来的不利因素依然存在，租户对大规模扩张计划仍持谨慎态度。印度七大城市的净吸纳量打破了此前的下滑趋势，达到三季度以来的最高水平。尽管租户对扩张活动仍略显谨慎，但印度本土企业和全球租户仍在持续增长，只是增速略有放缓。.

目前空间需求已趋于稳定，并呈现复苏迹象，交易完成情况有所好转，新的需求不断涌现，从而维持了整体需求规模。尽管全球经济逆风和科技增长乏力仍将是制约因素，但印度过去六个月展现出的韧性预计将在今年余下的时间里得以延续。交易完成情况将对2023年的预测产生重要影响，任何延误都可能导致2023年的增长略显疲软，但会对未来几年产生积极影响。.

2023年第二季度办公楼市场主要趋势

• 净吸纳量回升至795万平方英尺，为三个季度以来的最高水平。
• 季度供应量为1050万平方英尺，环比增加5.31万亿平方英尺。
• 科技企业继续领跑季度租户活动；灵活办公空间巩固增长势头，位居第二。
• 各大城市租金持续上涨

随着新加坡逐步走出疫情阴霾，商业活动逐渐恢复正常，企业租户更加重视员工生产力和办公空间利用率的提升。随着办公场所转型升级，企业迫切需要调整并“打造更优质的办公空间”，以满足员工和高管快速变化的需求。此外，租户还应积极寻找新的机遇和策略，以确保其投资组合能够适应未来发展。.

世邦魏理仕 2023 年新加坡办公楼租户情绪调查报告包含了来自金融服务、科技、媒体、电信和专业服务等各个行业租户的见解。.

主要研究结果包括：

• 新加坡的平均利用率达到 64%，预计未来 6 至 12 个月内将进一步提高。.
• 短期内租赁市场情绪依然谨慎，更多企业选择续租或重新谈判，但 45% 预计未来 3 年将扩大其企业投资组合。.
• 绿色建筑需求强劲，但绿色溢价仍然较低。67% 愿意支付的溢价低于 5%。.
• 随着越来越多的公司采用灵活办公和混合办公模式，员工与办公桌的共享比例预计将会增加。67%计划在未来两年内提高办公桌共享比例。.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com.sg/insights/viewpoints/2023-singapore-office-occupier-sentiment-survey

• 2023年第一季度，工业租赁和价格指数连续第十个季度上涨。租赁指数环比上涨2.81万亿吨，较上一季度的2.11万亿吨有所加速，创下自2013年第三季度以来的最大季度涨幅。同样，工业价格环比上涨1.51万亿吨，较上一季度的1.71万亿吨略有放缓。.
• 2023 年剩余供应量为 1030 万平方英尺，从现在到 2025 年平均供应量为 1090 万平方英尺，较高的供应量将继续抑制租金和价格的增长，但也可能为租户提供更多选择。.
• 工业指标依然疲软，制造业产出、NODX 和 PMI 均持续萎缩。.
• 贸易紧张局势导致业内人士寻求加强供应链，一些企业计划在新加坡设立工厂，这将继续支撑工业需求。.

2023年第二季度，莱坊亚太区优质写字楼租金指数连续第四个季度下滑，环比下跌1.6%，保持了长达一年的下滑趋势。这使得年度跌幅达到3.1%，主要是由于中国内地持续疲软。.

在 23 个跟踪城市中，有 15 个城市的租金稳定或上涨，低于 2023 年第一季度的 16 个城市。空置率本季度也小幅上升了四分之一个百分点，达到 13.8%，保持了自 2022 年第四季度以来该指标升至 10 多年来最高值的趋势。.

不过，从本季度超过 400 万平方英尺的交付量来看，亚太地区的写字楼需求要好于美国和欧洲，回归写字楼的趋势更为强劲。随着科技企业继续精简员工人数，金融和专业服务公司以及灵活空间运营商弥补了租赁活动的不足。整个地区普遍存在的 "追求品质 "的趋势也为需求提供了支持。.

随着该地区进入开发阶段，2023-2024 年的新增供应量将达到周期性高点，接近 2022 年的两倍，这将为现有存量增加近 10% 的供应量。因此，在今年余下的时间里，该地区大部分地区的市场条件将继续有利于租户。.

本报告最初发表于 https://apac.knightfrank.com/office-highlights