市場展望

コリアーズ・インターナショナルは、最新のレポート「アジア太平洋物流の新たな方向性 - ますます多様化するセクターには多様なアプローチが必要」の中で、アジア太平洋の物流市場の今後の明るい見通しを強調した。.

アジア太平洋地域全体では、実店舗からオンライン小売への長期的なシフトが物流スペースの需要を支えてきました。COVID-19の影響でeコマースの取引量が急増する一方で、コールドチェーンセクターの拡大と新たなインフラ整備も需要をさらに押し上げると予想されます。多くの投資家やデベロッパーは、既に物流倉庫を中核的な資産クラスと見なしています。.

While office rents continued to drop in the downbeat market, tenants seized the opportunity for better relocation options, resulting in high activity in the leasing market during the month. However, landlords further softened their approach and adopted a more realistic stance in negotiating leasing terms to secure tenants, so the majority of tenants tended to renew their leases. As a result, new take-up of Grade-A office space was at an exceptional low level during the month, particularly in the CBD area.

Amid the challenging economic environment, cost-competitiveness remains a pressing consideration for tenants. Going into 2021, we therefore expect to see a continuing decentralisation trend. We also foresee rising demand for co-working space, as more companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which have been heavily impacted by the coronavirus-induced recession to actively explore flexible leasing options.

Respondents to the Q2 Asia Pacific Commercial Property Monitor indicated that regional sentiment remained downbeat  in Q2. The RICS Commercial Property Sentiment Index*  (CPSI) fell from -31 in Q1 to -38 in Q2, the lowest reading since the Global Financial Crisis. As can be seen in Chart 1, the results from Asia Pacific are in line with those from the Americas (-38), Europe (-36) and the Middle East and Africa (-39).

Chart 2 shows China was the largest contributor to the downbeat sentiment in Asia Pacific. However, this is largely due to its large regional weighting in the index (China represents 48% of the Asia Pacific Index). The CPSI was firmly negative in every Asia Pacific country tracked by this survey. Chart 2 also shows a deterioration in conditions in Australia, India, Japan and elsewhere in APAC (including Hong Kong and Singapore).

The MSCI Global Annual Property Index weighs real estate investment returns across 25 countries. While MSCI’s national indexes for Japan and Korea are included in the MSCI Global Annual Property Index, our market data for seven other Asian countries – China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand – are excluded from that index. In this report, all national market sizes are based on bottom-up, portfolio-specific estimates, and these are converted into US Dollars using the yearend currency conversion rate.

Cushman & Wakefield, in its latest report titled ‘The Rise and Rise of ASEAN’ highlighted the bright future that lies ahead for Southeast Asia. Some of the key perspectives include:

1. ASEAN’s economies and population hold tremendous potential for its growth as a manufacturing bloc in the region. 
2. The stock of industrial land across ASEAN remains very healthy, presenting opportunities for occupiers to take up space at competitive land rates. 
3. Once the region emerges from the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, it appears that Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia are set for a bright future through the rest of the 2020s. Developers active in these markets need to identify the stream of new corporate occupiers scoping out their markets.

Although Japan has managed to contain the COVID-19 outbreak relatively well thus far, the impacts of the global pandemic will certainly put a damper on Japan’s economy and by extension the broader real estate market. As of April 2020, the IMF has forecasted that Japan’s economy will contract by 4.8% in 2020. To make matters worse, the Tokyo Olympics – which are now slated for July 2021 – could face an outright cancellation. Notwithstanding the near-term impacts of COVID-19, Tokyo will continue to see significant investment into the early 2020s and beyond. Major development projects are already underway around the C5W in areas such as Toranomon and Shibuya. Along with these developments, Shinagawa Station will undergo massive redevelopment that will prime it, as well as the Shinagawa Ward just to the south, for a boom over the course of the decade.

新冠肺炎疫情对全球经济的影响引发了激烈辩论。多数预测认为，全球经济将经 历严重衰退，程度或甚于金融危机时期； 更有不少人士认为这将是第二次世界大战以来最严重的经济衰退。争论的焦点在于经济复苏模式。是否会出现V形反弹？还是U形、L形或W形？甚至有预测认 为会出现像耐克品牌标志那样的“对勾 形”复苏。 随着各国陆续放松封锁禁令但继续鼓励社交隔离，新冠肺炎疫情的长期影响仍有待观察。许多人士认为世界将大为不同。

新発売

• 2020年上半期の新規発売物件供給は、2019年下半期と比較して56%減少しました。3月最終週から実施された全国的なロックダウンは不動産セクターに深刻な影響を与え、発売が低調に終わりました。.

• 2020年第2四半期は最も影響を受けた四半期となり、打ち上げ数は2013年以来最低となりました。この四半期の新規打ち上げ供給は、2020年第1四半期比で97%、前年同期比で98%減少しました。.

• 2020年上半期の新規供給戸数における手頃な価格の住宅の割合は、総供給戸数に占める約36%でした。これは、2019年下半期の41%から減少しました。絶対値で見ると、このセグメントの半期減少は約61%です。2020年第2四半期には、手頃な価格のセグメントにおける新規供給はありませんでした。.

新型コロナウイルス感染症（COVID-19）が世界経済に与える影響については、激しい議論が交わされています。多くの予測者は、世界金融危機（GFC）よりも深刻な世界的な景気後退が訪れると予想しており、第二次世界大戦以降で最悪の景気後退になるとの見方も広がっています。議論の焦点となっているのは、景気回復の形態です。V字回復となるのでしょうか？それともU字型、L字型、あるいはW字型になる可能性が高いのでしょうか？「ナイキのスウッシュ型」の回復といった議論さえ聞かれます。各国は厳しいロックダウンを解除しつつあるものの、ソーシャルディスタンス（社会的距離）の確保は依然として推奨されているため、新型コロナウイルス感染症の長期的な影響はまだ見えていません。多くの人が、世界は以前とは全く異なる場所になると考えています。.

While real estate value is unsurprisingly concentrated in Tokyo’s central business district, namely the central five wards of Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, and Shibuya, Greater Tokyo’s comprehensive rail system grants great accessibility to outlying areas. The key advantage of Tokyo’s rail network is its density and globally-renowned punctuality. Although delays certainly occur and carriages become overcrowded during rush hour, commuters can largely count on trains arriving on time and at a high frequency. Looking at global comparisons, Tokyo is often ranked as having the most efficient and punctual railway system, especially considering its vast transport capacity.