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Global Economy

• Global growth estimated to decline by 3.5% in 2020 but expected to rise by 5.5% in 2021
• Advanced economies likely to grow by 4.3% in 2021 on the back of the early rollout of vaccines
• Emerging economies are expected to grow by 6.3% in 2021 on the back of a contracted base

Indian Economy 

• India’s GDP growth for FY21 is estimated to decline by 7.7%, hit by the global pandemic and the lockdown
• Private consumption estimated to contract by 9.5% in FY21 based on income loss, mobility restrictions, and supply constraints
• Government consumption estimated to rise by 5.8% due to increased expenditure as part of pandemic relief packages.
• Investment estimated to decline by 14.5% due to economic uncertainty and delay in implementation of capital projects

見通し 

• Consumption indicators, including FMCG, auto sales, and GST collection indicate a faster demand recovery in Q3
• Continued momentum post-pandemic in health, pharma, telecom, and technology (e-commerce, fintech, ed-tech, etc.) owing to a significant shift in consumption patterns
• The pandemic has led to a preference for digital services and adoption of digitalisation in many companies
• GDP is estimated to grow at 11% in FY22 owing to robust growth in consumption and investment and lower base effect

The pandemic has induced behavioural changes amongst consumers that are likely to stay permanent. This has hit the physical retail and F&B sectors hardest and the industry has to be quick to adapt to this new reality in order to nurture the sector back to recovery, albeit in an evolved form.

Footfall numbers will be hard-pressed to return to pre-COVID levels so long as the need to social distance is enforced. The takeaway channel is therefore vital. With incomes falling and unemployment rising, food delivery companies are seeing a decline in activity from the peaks witnessed in the months of April and May. Parents are telling their children now not to order frivolously. Footfall ebbs and flows with some days seeing much greater activity than others (same as our office – some days we have 30% of the workers back while for most of the time, it’s just 15% to 20%). It is difficult to predict the daily flow these days. Whenever helicopter money is disbursed by the government, the crowd emerges in the suburbs. But give it about 10 days and the patronage falls back to pre-payout levels.

The points highlighted above are summarised in the following heatmaps. Table 1A and 1B show the heatmap of revenues by broad tenant types in CBD and Suburban locations. These are the findings obtained after spending weeks soliciting feedback from various retail and F&B operators plus plying the grounds to weed off the weekend-weekday effects.

WHEN CULTURAL VALUE BECOMES COMMERCIAL VALUE AND TRANSFORMS INTO INVESTMENT GAINS.

• The total shophouse transaction value amounted to S$880.7 million in 2020, riding out the pandemic with only a slight 3.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline when compared to the S$915.9 million recorded in 2019, as sales in Q4 2020 rebounded to surpass pre-pandemic levels. Gross sales value in the quarter alone accounted for almost half of 2020 shophouse sales value at S$431.8 million.
• The shophouse sales volume was also greater in 2020 compared to the previous year, with 138 transactions lodged as compared to 123 in 2019 (Exhibit 1). The majority (88.4%) sold were freehold shophouses. Q4 2020 saw a total of 51 shophouse transactions, 19 more than in Q3 when sales started to recover.
• Aided by lower costs of borrowing and high liquidity in the market, pent-up demand from different pools of buyers such as first-time investors as well as family offices and corporates contributed to the overall recovery of the shophouse market, especially towards the last quarter of the year. Price expectations between buyers and sellers were realistically met, leading to the materialisation of sales.

厳しい市場にもチャンスは残されている

パンデミックとそれに起因する経済ショックに見舞われた年であったが、中国は急速に立ち直り、2020年の経済拡大を記録した数少ない国のひとつとなった。2021年に向けて、生活、仕事、経済の多くの側面が、デジタル技術の大幅な進歩と採用の拡大によって根本的に変化している。とはいえ、COVID-19の前の段階から、債務水準、気候変動問題、経済の安定性など、根強く残る大きな構造的問題にも取り組んでいく。.

不動産市場では、2021年に課題と機会がもたらされる。住宅販売セクターはデレバレッジのための規制強化に直面し、成長が鈍化し需要が抑制される。しかし、資本を持つ人々は、富を蓄え、維持し、成長させるために投資を続けるだろう。渡航制限により、出向者や帰国駐在員の数は制限されているが、事業者は、リースの利点に気づきつつある地元顧客層の増加に合わせて、サービスや施設を迅速に調整している。商業セクターは供給過剰に直面しているが、クリエイティブな環境を育み、テナントの柔軟性を高めることができる家主は市場シェアを維持できるだろう。オンライン・プラットフォームが小売売上高に占める割合は引き続き拡大しているが、ユニークな体験や社会的交流への渇望により、実店舗がブランドと消費者を結ぶ重要な接点であり続けている。. 

物流セクターの成長は、規制や厳しい土地許可に阻まれているが、3PLやeコマース・プラットフォームからの需要は依然として旺盛だ。投資が後退し、ベンダーが資金調達の制限からより大きなプレッシャーを感じる中、より高い成長の機会を求めて伝統的な商業セクターからの投資は敬遠されてきたが、機会が現れ始めており、活動レベルは回復し始めると予想される。. 

寻路向前

尽管2020年初爆发疫情带来巨大冲击，但中国经济迅速反弹，成为全年经济同比增长的少数几个国家之一伴随数字技术的进步和广推，我们的生活，工作和经济活动都在发生变化，此外也需积极应对债务，气候，经济稳定等长期存在的结构性挑战。

2021年的房地产市场挑战和机遇并存。住宅销售市场正面临监管加码，短期市场需求或将因此受限，但市场中长期价值前景并未改变，仍是财富保值及增值的重要去向。高端租赁市场持续演进，旅行限制影响外籍租客需求，但本地租客需求上升、日趋多样，为业主带来调整机会。写字楼市场存在局部供应放量，而能为租户创造创意环境和灵活空间的业主将占据优势。零售商纷纷发力电商平台，但顾客对独特体验和社交互动的诉求说明，实体店依然是品牌和消费者沟通的重要渠道。

物流行业的增长受到政策和土地许可的限制，但来自第三方物公司和电子商务平台的需求有增无减。物流和数据中心的高增长潜力令一些投资者从统物业领域转向利资产。

Hong Kong’s investment momentum turned sluggish in 2020, with the total Hong Kong’s investment momentum turned sluggish in 2020, with the total transaction volume dropping 47%YOY to HKD 60.1 billion (USD 7.7 billion), a record low over the last decade.

Most investors have been taking a wait-and-see approach throughout 2020, given the market was still shadowed by different layers of uncertainty. Meanwhile, the global outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent travel restrictions also likely deterred some site visits and investment decisions, especially for those investors with decision-makers abroad, making local and mainland capital the key buyers.

Whilst the property market in Hong Kong has been undergoing a correction across most commercial sectors, the gradual increase in yields in the last two years prompted investors to look for distressed assets or properties with bigger discounts, despite their limited availability. The bid-ask dislocation remained the key hurdle for investment transactions over the last 12months.