思想引领

世邦魏理仕 (CBRE) 于 2023 年 11 月和 12 月开展了 2024 年亚太地区投资者意向调查。调查收到了 500 多份回复，受访者被问及一系列与他们的购买意向、感知到的挑战以及未来一年的首选策略、行业和市场相关的问题。. 

调查显示，亚太地区投资者的购买意愿持续疲软，而卖出意愿则创下调查开展以来的最高水平。尽管全球主要市场的加息周期已然停滞，但投资者仍在等待市场发出重定价周期结束的迹象，才会投入大量资金。.

因此，除日本以外，大多数市场的投资者在 2024 年上半年将继续采取观望态度。然而，随着市场越来越预期美联储将在 2024 年下半年开始降息，亚太地区的央行也将效仿，商业房地产投资活动应该会在下半年加速。.

其他主要发现：

• 整体投资情绪与世邦魏理仕内部预期基本一致。尽管净买入意向与预期相近，但超过40%的投资者表示，他们将在2024年出售更多资产以实现收益并偿还债务。澳大利亚、新加坡和香港特别行政区的卖出意向最为强烈。.
• 调查显示，随着投资者寻求在负收益持续存在的市场中实现目标回报，增值投资策略将在 2024 年获得发展动力。.
• 住宅资产（尤其是多户住宅和租赁型住宅）的投资兴趣增幅最为显著，尤其受到那些考虑增值策略的投资者的青睐。工业地产和办公楼仍然是核心投资者最青睐的物业类型。.
• 对于寻求另类资产的投资者而言，医疗保健资产仍然是他们关注的焦点。房地产债务在今年的调查中跃升至第二位，同时，投资者对居住领域（养老社区和学生公寓）的关注度也显著提高。.
• 日本连续第五年蝉联跨境投资首选市场。新加坡和澳大利亚分别位列第二和第三。投资者依然青睐流动性强且收益稳定的市场。.
• 超过 60% 的投资者（其中大部分是私募股权基金、房地产基金和 REIT）计划在 2024 年对现有建筑物进行改造，使其更具可持续性或符合 ESG 标准；这一趋势确保了增值策略是他们的首选方法。.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/asia-pacific-investor-intentions-survey-2024

In our 33rd edition of Main Streets Across the World, we explore the near-term outlook for the retail sector and headline rents and ranking changes for the best-in-class urban locations across the world. In addition, we will share key indicators and trends to watch, including the cost-of-living crunch and changes in e-commerce.  

As the world continues to emerge from the impacts of the global pandemic, prime retail destinations have continued their rebound, recording mostly positive rental growth over the past year.

• Globally, rents rose by an average of 4.8% over the past 12 months, an increase over the 3.7% growth shown in the previous year.
• Asia Pacific led the world in 2023 at 5.3%, which was a strong improvement on the 1.1% growth experienced the previous year.
• Europe also accelerated from experiencing growth of 0.9% YOY in Q3 2022 to 4.2% YOY in Q3 2023, albeit this higher rate was driven by exceptional uplift in Türkiye (without which growth in Europe averaged 2.1% for the year).
• U.S. slowed from 17.0% last year, which was driven by supportive fiscal policies, to a more sustainable 3.2%.

CBRE’s latest leasing market sentiment index reveals that regional leasing sentiment is improving amid a rise in enquiries:

• Tenant enquiries and site visits registered an increase over the surveyed period. Leasing enquiries and inspections remained strong, led by retail.
• While expansionary demand continued to strengthen across the retail sector, there was a slight weakening in requirements for office and industrial space.
• More than half of the respondents believe that rents and incentives will remain flat. The remaining respondents were divided between those having a positive outlook for Singapore and Korea and those expecting a rental decline in Greater China.
• Most major markets reported stronger leasing sentiment. Sentiment in Japan entered positive territory for the first time since 2020, while both Hong Kong SAR and Australia saw sentiment rebound from negative territory. Mainland China was the only market to witness negative sentiment, indicating that this market will require more time to recover.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com.sg/insights/asia-pacific-insights/apac-leasing-market-sentiment-index

The MFIA Quarterly discusses an overview of Japan’s economy, Japan’s real estate market conditions, demography and economic growth.

What we know is that the global commercial real estate (CRE) sector, like many sectors, faces significant near-term headwinds. In Asia Pacific, while the economy remains resilient, the CRE investment market is in the middle of a reset given interest rate uncertainty, tighter lending conditions, and a challenging global environment.  However, we also know that the CRE sector will recover. In fact, historically, the strongest vintage years in terms of CRE returns are the ones that follow periods of dislocation and financial stress.

This report provides a glide path from here to there. That path will not be without challenge; it is therefore just as important to address the near-term challenges as it is to conceptualise the path to clear(er) skies. Our approach to investing is predicated in part on positioning for the future and not missing out on thematic and demographics that will drive Asia Pacific in the next decade.

The office sector is currently going through global structural change as organisations seek to adapt their physical spaces to new ways of working and adjust their corporate real estate decision making.  Our ‘REWORKING’ series examines decision-making for occupiers under four key considerations: Cost, Carbon, Culture and Community – under which the changing demands, needs and impacts on office spaces and strategies can be examined.

该指南追踪了亚太地区37个重点数据中心选址，并详细列出了土地购置、前期土地清理和拆除工程、基础建设和内部装修等各项成本。它对亚太地区的数据中心格局进行了全面分析，包括影响该地区数据中心行业发展的关键趋势。这是高纬环球首次发布数据中心开发成本数据。.

Singapore’s retail e-commerce market is projected to grow at a 9.9% CAGR from 2022 to 2027, from S$5.8 billion in 2022 to a size of S$9.2 billion in 2027. Emerging trends such as shopping festivals, live selling and online grocery shopping have presented unique challenges for businesses in managing their logistics supply chain. With the adoption of omnichannel retail models and the outsourcing of last mile deliveries to 3PLs, the need for strategically located warehouses becomes paramount.

This report seeks to explain how the logistics sector is positioned to capture e-commerce demand, as well as potential recommendations for landlords and occupiers as they seek to future proof their logistics real estate portfolio.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com.sg/insights/reports/the-evolution-of-e-commerce-and-its-impact-on-singapore-logistics-real-estate

More than three years after the onset of COVID-19, Singapore retail sales have recovered and exceeded pre-pandemic levels. However, foot traffic and retail rents have yet to fully recover. CBRE’s proprietary study finds that consumers are now visiting malls less frequently but for longer durations. Consumption patterns have also changed, driven by the proliferation of e-commerce, rising income levels and increased focus on wellness and ESG.

This report identifies the main trends shaping Singapore’s retail property market in the post-pandemic era and provides recommendations for retail occupiers and landlords to navigate the structural shifts and cyclical recovery of Singapore’s retail market. Government initiatives, the return of tourist spending and a wider selection of locations are also providing opportunities to all stakeholders.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com.sg/insights/viewpoints/singapore-retail-in-the-post-pandemic-era-trends-and-opportunities

The electric vehicle (EV) market in Asia Pacific has grown significantly over the past two years, with the region accounting for nearly two-thirds of global EV sales in 2022. 

As EV adoption continues to gather pace, demand for public charging infrastructure in Asia is also rapidly increasing, primarily due to the prevalence of apartments where the installation of private chargers is subject to regulatory restrictions and administrative barriers.

The growing number of EVs in Asia Pacific will require a significant increase in charging facilities. CBRE estimates the number of public charging points across the region will rise from around 2 million in 2022 to around 10 million by 2030.

All of these converging trends present a significant opportunity for real estate owners and investors to gain access to or expand their presence in the EV public charging infrastructure market.

本报告最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/how-will-electric-vehicles-impact-real-estate-in-asia-pacific