市场前景

总体来看，写字楼面临的是疫情和经济环境综合效应的影响。疫情对写字楼的影响相对于购物中心、百货商场等商业物业有滞后效应。餐饮业、旅游业、零售业等服务业先行，之后可能会出现某些生产服务业明显。影响的程度更取决于本次疫情时间的长短。经济有自己运行的规律，需要时间。疫情影子响到写字楼需求端，以2003年非典及2008年经济危机的经验回顾，滞后的规矩通常是6个月左右的时间。如果说中美贸易战是长期影响的话，疫情的影响是短期波动的，但疫情导致中小企业的经营压力，对于部分写字楼造成的负面影响可能会持续。 

2019年对于物流行业来说是值得铭记的一年。鉴于该行业的巨大增长潜力，投资者竞相争夺这一资产类别。投资额和项目完成量均创历史新高，物流类日本房地产投资信托基金（J-REIT）的单位价格也大幅飙升。展望未来，永旺（Aeon）和耐克（Nike）等大型零售商的新举措，不仅可能对物流行业产生深远影响，也可能对零售业产生深远影响。. 

从 这里

欧米における急速な渡航制限・行動制限の拡大に伴い、新型コロナウイルスの国内外における事業活動への影響が一層深刻化してきています。感染拡大に伴う国内の各種法律問題に加え、海外に子会社・関係会社を抱える企業からの問い合わせも増えているため、当事務所の海外オフィスと連携して速報ベースで各国の方針や影響拡大状況の概要につきお知らせ致します。なお、本ニュースレターは感染拡大が続く間、不定期に配信していきたいと思いますが、同感染症の拡大状況については日々状況が変化している中、本ニュースレターの内容がその後変更・更新されている可能性については十分ご留意の上参照ください。本ニュースレターの内容は、特段記載のない限り、2020年3月17日夜時点で判明している情報に基づいています。

尽管目前的新冠肺炎（COVID19）疫情与2002-03年的SARS（SARS-CoV）疫情之 间不可避免地存在相关性，尤其是基线事件在本质上非常相似，因此多见以SARS事 件作为参考来分析此次疫情将会产生的潜在影响。然而，疫情发生的背景完全不同， 2002/03年的世界与今天的世界也截然不同。比如，当时美国及其盟国不久就对伊拉 克发动战争；美国经济更加脆弱；当时中国在世界经济中的影响力比现在要小得多……

Just as trade-related tensions appeared to be easing between the U.S. and China, the Asia Pacific region found itself at the forefront of the COVID-19 outbreak. The U.S.-China phase one trade deal was signed on Jan. 15, just as the coronavirus was becoming evident in Wuhan, Hubei. Asia Pacific became the first region to experience the real economic repercussions. China’s GDP growth will be dented, which in turn will exert economic stress on the Asia Pacific region and the global economy as a whole.

This guide gives a brief comparative overview of certain key insights to the real estate industry in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

• The novel coronavirus outbreak, first reported from Wuhan city in Hubei province, central China, represents a new downside risk for the regional economy.
• The first case of the coronavirus, now formally named COVID-19 by the World Health Organization, was reported on Dec. 31, 2019, and there have since been multiple developments with the virus and much speculation on the impacts.
• To help better understand the current and future impact on commercial real estate in key markets in Asia Pacific, Cushman & Wakefield has compiled their initial guidance and analysis in our Potential Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Commercial Real Estate in Asia Pacific report, which you click the Download button below.

We expect a global economic recession to eventuate. The key question is how quickly the economy bounces back. This mostly depends on how rapidly COVID-19 is contained. We believe that real estate in general will see strong investor support in the medium term due to the increased need for yield alternatives given record low bond yields on one hand, and, even if the equity market bounces back, a desire for stable asset classes on the other.

The first couple of months of 2020 have been dominated by fears of the novel coronavirus’s impact on global economies and property markets. Historically, investors tend to become more cautious in their investment choices during periods of heightened uncertainty, and this year has been no exception in the Asia Pacific region. However, a closer analysis of Real Capital Analytics data shows that investor risk aversion had already been growing over the prior months.

• COVID-19: Comparable to GFC shock and bigger, but unlike GFC, is a socio-biological calamity-driven stress and  has  engulfed the entire world. Damage is physical and psychological.
• Global economic decline projected in upcoming quarters- loss of investor confidence, consumption slowdown, loss of jobs (World GDP growth could even fall to 0% in initial two quarters of 2020, on the lower side*).
• Post COVID-19, however, the world to witness large-scale transformation and business boost.