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  • By April 2021, office-focused listed real estate companies became the worst-performing segment in the MSCI World Core IMI Real Estate Index, on a cumulative basis since January 2020.
  • Office’s relatively poor recent performance upset the pattern of returns — across regions and public and private markets — seen in 2020, when industrial outperformed, retail and hotels lagged and office and residential had middling returns.
  • Private-market data has not shown such a shift in sector-performance rankings but, looking deeper, we can see the performance of office assets has varied by location type and lease structure.

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由于中国在新冠疫情中“率先进入并率先退出”，因此对国内外投资者的吸引力日益增强。为此，我们的研究、估值和资本市场团队于2020年底联合开展了一项投资者意向和资本化率预期调查，收集了来自中国大陆及国际大型商业地产投资者的宝贵反馈。.

调查结果显示，投资者对中国一线城市表现出浓厚的兴趣，尤其关注北京和上海的办公楼资产，以及商务园区。受中国疫情后经济快速复苏的推动，投资者对零售资产的兴趣也保持相对稳定。不出所料，大多数受访者也对一线城市及其周边卫星城的物流和数据中心表现出浓厚的兴趣。在主要的二线城市中，杭州——中国新兴的科技之都和浙江省省会——成为首选，其次是成都。.

就资本化率预期而言，2021年北京和上海中央商务区写字楼的资本化率可能仍将保持较低水平，介于3.91TP/3T至4.61TP/3T之间。相比之下，深圳和二线城市的写字楼资本化率预计将略有上升。零售投资方面，上海、广州和主要二线城市的资本化率预计将保持相对稳定，而北京和深圳的资本化率可能会有所上升。此外，预计中国所有主要城市的商务园区物业资本化率将保持稳定，而大多数受访者预计一线城市及其周边地区的物流设施和数据中心的资本化率将进一步下降。.

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– The vacancy rate for Large Multi-Tenant (LMT) logistics facilities in the Greater Tokyo area rose by 0.6 points q-o-q to 1.1% in Q1 2021, marking the first time the vacancy rate has exceeded 1% since reaching 1.1% in Q4 2019. Although the unprecedented surge in demand for facemasks and other daily necessities triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic led to stronger competition for logistics space in 2020, activity now appears to have eased.  That said, overall demand remains stable.

– The LMT vacancy rate in the Greater Osaka area fell to 1.9% in Q1 2021, down 1.8 points q-o-q. This marked the first time the vacancy rate has dropped below 2% since Q2 2016, when it also stood at 1.9%. The fact that rents have risen by 13% over the past two years, combined with increasing uncertainty over future economic performance, has meant that tenants are becoming more cautious, slowing the pace of rent increase.

– The LMT vacancy rate in the Greater Nagoya area fell by 1.7 points q-o-q to 8.6% this quarter. With some 170,000 tsubo of new floor space coming available in 2022, owners are stepping up their promotional campaigns to attract tenants.

– This quarter, CBRE has initiated the publication of LMT indices for the Greater Fukuoka area, where the vacancy rate has remained at 0.0% since Q2 2019. With development of multiple new LMT facilities now underway, properties possessing more user-friendly layouts will command an advantage over the competition.

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  • 2020 年第四季度工业 GVA 为负值，-6.7%。.
  • 整个季度的超黄金地段工业平均租金上涨了 0.4%。澳大利亚超黄金地段的平均租金为 $113/平方米
  • 超级优惠贷款收益率按年压缩了 57 个基点，收益率创历史新低
  • 1.6 公顷地块的地价环比增长 2.5%，平均为 $570/平方米，而 0.25 公顷地块的地价环比增长 5.4%，达到 $719/平方米。.
  • 交易量。超过 $5 百万美元的交易量共计 $393 百万美元，涉及 18 项交易。与 2020 年第一季度的交易量相比，下降了 78%。.
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  • Investment sentiment has improved since the abolition of double stamp duty in November 2020.
  • Property funds accounted for 33% of investment volume in Q1 2021, including half of the ten largest deals.
  • Industrial transactions represented 43% of total investment volume, the highest proportion since Q4 2005.
  • CBRE expects new standard rates for lease modification for industrial redevelopment to boost investment in the sector this year.
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- 虽然仍有一些公司（如技术部门的公司）希望扩大业务，但其他租户正在考虑 ‘合理化’，因为他们采用了远程工作方式。.

- 租赁活动还来自于租户寻找替代空间，因为他们被迫搬出今年晚些时候计划重建的旧楼。此外，由于即将开工的新大楼的施工延迟，租约在短期内到期的租户可能会续签租约，或者现在就寻找替代空间。.

- 新供应的延迟、远程工作措施限制的取消以及健康的办公楼投资市场，都增强了甲级办公楼业主的信心。.

- 2021 年第一季度，第一太平戴维斯一篮子 CBD 甲级写字楼的整体空置率连续第四个季度上升，上升了 0.3 个百分点（ppt），达到 7.3%。.

- 2021 年第一季度，尽管市建局发布的中环地区写字楼租金指数显示出 3.3% 的季度升幅，但第一太平戴维斯一篮子 CBD 甲级写字楼的平均月租金已连续第四个季度下降，尽管降幅有所放缓，为每平方呎 1.2% 至每平方呎 4.4$9.41T 。我们维持年同比-5%的租金预期。.

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要点总结

  1. Co-investment is a nifty tool of capital management that delivers efficiencies to both LPs and GPs.
  2. A Category I / II AIF is not permitted to invest more than 25% of investible funds in a single investee company. This restricts the formation of dedicated co-investment vehicles.
  3. The IFSCA issued a circular in late 2020 permitting AIFs in GIFT City to disapply the 25% diversity requirement subject to certain conditions.
  4. More recently, SEBI released a consultation paper on the concept of ‘accredited investors’, which contemplates an enhanced degree of flexibility (including on the diversity requirement) for funds populated solely by AIs.
  5. These new measures are likely to facilitate the proliferation of co-investment activity in India.
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  • 租户咨询和现场考察数量持续增长，但与前两个月相比增速放缓。.
  • 灵活办公空间需求保持稳定，大多数受访者表示他们没有发现任何重大变化。.
  • 受访者表示租金面临更大的下行压力，而大多数主要市场的激励措施预计将会增加。.
  • 在连续两个月保持乐观之后，租赁市场情绪略有恶化，再次转为负面。房东实力也有所减弱。.
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Manufacturing property as an asset class is rising in importance as more new or rejuvenated production locations outside of China emerge, with transactions of manufacturing assets growing 19% p.a. since 2011.

In the logistics sector, online grocery sales – the fastest-growing category of online retail sales in Asia Pacific – is predicted to rise 30% p.a., driving demand for last mile delivery facilities.

本报告将探讨以下内容：
  • China Plus One strategies and the opportunities for industrial property occupiers and owners
  • Opportunities in the last mile and cold chain segments of logistics networks
  • The most attractive cities in Asia Pacific for industrial occupiers and owners
  • Investment trends in key markets
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Most major regional economies continue to make steady progress after a devastating 2020 and ‘reform and recovery’ should emerge as the key themes of the year. While a smooth transition to normality is not assured (as India has shown) a pick-up in transactions volumes suggests a growing confidence among regional real estate investors as Asia continues to outpace both Europe and the US.

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