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亚太地区上市房地产股票指数回报率在7月份保持低位，仅为0.3%，该地区的上市房地产股票尚未从6月的低潮完全复苏。

由于新冠疫情的反弹使中国香港特区政府实施了新的限制社交距离的措施，中国香港地区的上市房地产股票在7月份的表现，相比于6月的12.2%收益，下降了5.7%。作为亚太地区具有影响力的市场，日本也由此出现了加速下降的态势。中国大陆的上市房地产股票则呈现上升趋势，自6月份内销复苏之后保持持续的上涨。

亚太地区REITs则连续第四个月盈利，7月份获得3%的收益，其根源在于工业地产REITs的出色表现，但相较于回报率达4.6%的亚太股票指数，其上涨幅度还是未能跑赢该指数。

7月份，新加坡REITs的表现最佳，回报率为4.5%，其次是中国台湾地区REITs，获得1.3%的收益；而亚太其他地区REITs则表现平平，甚至出现亏损。随着新加坡监管部门自4月份放宽对REITs分红的频率要求，从通常的每三个月一次，放宽至最长每十二个月一次之后，新加坡REITs的表现相较于3月已恢复了20%。与此同时，新加坡金融管理局还将新加坡REITs的杠杆率限制上调到了50%，并将其最低利率覆盖率的规定推迟至2022年实行，这些利好措施都有助于新加坡REITs更好地度过危机。

在亚太其他REITs市场中，8月份有两支新的REITs在亚太地区上市。随着菲律宾最大的房地产开发商——Ayala Land地产集团主导的REIT成功上市，菲律宾也成为了最新一个在本地具有上市REITs的亚太地区国家。同时，印度也迎来了第二支房地产投资信托基金，名为Mindspace Business Parks REIT（Mindspace商务园区REIT），其联合发起人为黑石集团及印度本地开发商K Raheja集团。

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The GPR/APREA Composite Listed Real Estate Index finished July just above water, returning just 0.3%, as real estate stocks in the region slowed from its June performance. Hong Kong’s stocks finished July 5.7% lower, down from a 12.2% gain in June, as a resurgence in COVID-19 infections in the territory prompted the government to reintroduced social distancing measures. Declines also accelerated in regional heavyweight, Japan. However, stocks in China bucked the trend, sustaining another month of gains that had been sparked off by recovering home sales in June. The region’s REITs registered its fourth consecutive monthly gains (+3%), which came on the back of sustained outperformance by Industrial REITs. However, they continued to lag the broader market, which posted a return of 4.6%.

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Cushman & Wakefield, in its latest report titled ‘The Rise and Rise of ASEAN’ highlighted the bright future that lies ahead for Southeast Asia. Some of the key perspectives include:

  1. ASEAN’s economies and population hold tremendous potential for its growth as a manufacturing bloc in the region. 
  2. The stock of industrial land across ASEAN remains very healthy, presenting opportunities for occupiers to take up space at competitive land rates. 
  3. Once the region emerges from the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, it appears that Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia are set for a bright future through the rest of the 2020s. Developers active in these markets need to identify the stream of new corporate occupiers scoping out their markets.

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  • 亚太地区上市房地产指数回报率在6月份有所攀升， 原因是在该地区逐步放松封锁的大环境下，经济复 苏刚刚起步，投资者正在寻找适当的投资机会。随 着投资者对议价机会兴趣的增加，中国的房地产股 票和房地产投资信托基金（包括在中国香港上市的 房地产股票和房地产投资信托基金以及在中国大陆 上市的房地产股票和拥有大陆资产境外上市的房地 产信托基金）表现正在回升。
  • 尽管开始实施新的国家安全法，但6月份中国香港 上市的房地产股票和房地产投资信托基金表现分 别反弹了12.2％和7.8％。投资者选择将重点放在 随着放松社会隔离规定而重新重启的经济中。
  • 上市房地产/房地产投资信托指数继续跑输大盘， 分别从高位回落18％和21％。但是，随着大多 数经济体的封锁措施放松以及全球范围内一系 列降息的影响，企业恢复经营，其回报率可能 再次跑赢大盘。
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  • Listed real estate indexed returns in the Asia Pacific crept up in June, as investors bought into a fledgling economic recovery on the back of easing lockdowns across the region. Real estate equities and REITs, with exposure to China, including those listed in Hong Kong and Mainland China are enjoying a resurgence as investor interest increased on bargain opportunities.
  • Hong Kong listed real estate equities and REITs rebounded 12.2% and 7.8%, respectively, in June, despite the start of a newly imposed national security law. Investors are looking past the debated legislation, opting to focus on renewed stability in the economy as social-distancing rules were relaxed.
  • Listed Real Estate/REIT indices continued to underperform the broader markets, and were down 18% and 21%, respectively from their peaks. However, with a majority of lockdowns easing across the economies, returns could once again outperform as businesses resume amid a slew of rate cuts globally.
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Although Japan has managed to contain the COVID-19 outbreak relatively well thus far, the impacts of the global pandemic will certainly put a damper on Japan’s economy and by extension the broader real estate market. As of April 2020, the IMF has forecasted that Japan’s economy will contract by 4.8% in 2020. To make matters worse, the Tokyo Olympics – which are now slated for July 2021 – could face an outright cancellation. Notwithstanding the near-term impacts of COVID-19, Tokyo will continue to see significant investment into the early 2020s and beyond. Major development projects are already underway around the C5W in areas such as Toranomon and Shibuya. Along with these developments, Shinagawa Station will undergo massive redevelopment that will prime it, as well as the Shinagawa Ward just to the south, for a boom over the course of the decade.

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新冠肺炎疫情对全球经济的影响引发了激烈辩论。多数预测认为，全球经济将经 历严重衰退，程度或甚于金融危机时期； 更有不少人士认为这将是第二次世界大战以来最严重的经济衰退。争论的焦点在于经济复苏模式。是否会出现V形反弹？还是U形、L形或W形？甚至有预测认 为会出现像耐克品牌标志那样的“对勾 形”复苏。 随着各国陆续放松封锁禁令但继续鼓励社交隔离，新冠肺炎疫情的长期影响仍有待观察。许多人士认为世界将大为不同。

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New Launches

• H1 2020 new launch supply declined by 56% compared to H2 2019. The nationwide lockdown imposed from the last week of March severely impacted the real estate sector, resulting in muted launches.

• Q2 2020 was the most impacted quarter with launches being the lowest since 2013. During this quarter, new launch supply declined by 97% over Q1 2020 and 98% over the same period last year.

• The share of affordable housing in H1 2020 new launches was around 36% of the total supply. This decreased from 41% in H2 2019. In absolute terms, the half-yearly decline in this segment was around 61%. No new supply was added in the affordable segment in Q2 2020.

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The impact Covid-19 will have on the global economy is being fiercely debated. Most forecasters agree that there will be a global recession deeper than the global financial crisis (GFC) and many expect it to be the deepest since the Second World War. The debate is around the shape of the recovery. Will there be a V-shaped rebound? Or is a U, L or W shape more likely? We’re even hearing discussions about ‘a Nike swoosh-shaped’ recovery. As countries come out of their strict lockdowns but social distancing is still encouraged, the long-term impact of Covid-19 is yet to be seen. Many believe the world will emerge as a different place.

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While real estate value is unsurprisingly concentrated in Tokyo’s central business district, namely the central five wards of Chiyoda, Chuo, Minato, Shinjuku, and Shibuya, Greater Tokyo’s comprehensive rail system grants great accessibility to outlying areas. The key advantage of Tokyo’s rail network is its density and globally-renowned punctuality. Although delays certainly occur and carriages become overcrowded during rush hour, commuters can largely count on trains arriving on time and at a high frequency. Looking at global comparisons, Tokyo is often ranked as having the most efficient and punctual railway system, especially considering its vast transport capacity.

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