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Rental declines continue across the board

Rental declines were milder in Kowloon with vacancy gradually absorbed after the aggressive rental adjustments of late last year. 

• Grade A rents fell by 1.5% in Q3/2021 compared with a 2.6% decline in Q2/2021.
• The Central office market has been buffeted by the same headwinds as other markets, but despite this we have seen some selective expansion demand and new leases among Mainland financial institutions as well as new industry tenants.
• In the uncertain environment, serviced offices are popular, and we note more take-up from large operators in core business districts.
• Rental declines were milder in Kowloon with vacancy gradually absorbed, particularly in Tsim Sha Tsui and Kowloon East.
• Vacancy rates continued to climb to 9.3% in Q3 with office buildings in some areas, such as North Point and Kowloon West, suffering more than others.
• Upcoming supply in prime areas is seeing some early pre-commitment.
• As Central’s rental premium over the rest of the market narrows, decentralised rents may in turn come under pressure. Looking ahead, during a period of uncertain prospects and elevated supply, a lot will depend on demand from PRC firms over the next 12 to 24 months.

本文最初发表于 https://www.savills.com.hk/

Investors remain engaged

Logistics leasing activity levels revived in Q3 with operators opting to renewal in order to minimize business disruption, while those with expansion needs were looking for relocation options.

• The revival of the local trading and retail sectors has meant that many logistics operators were keen to renew leases to avoid business disruption, while those with expansion demand chose to relocate. 
• Overall and modern warehouse rents continued to rebound by 2.1% and 2.5% in Q3/2021 respectively, while both overall and modern warehouse vacancy rates fell to 3.2% and 2.6% over the same quarter, after a small spike last quarter.
• Investment sentiment continued to revive in Q3 with 17 major deals of over HK$100 million concluded worth a total of over HK$7.3 billion.  While investment funds were still keen on the high yield logistics sector, we note more participation from logistics operators (for eventual owner-occupation) and developers (for redevelopment).
• With local and global supply chains both expected to continue to rebound, short-term logistics demand seems to be sustainable. Nevertheless, a total of 7 million sq ft of new warehouse space is scheduled to come on stream over the next two years, so far with little pre-commitment, and this will test market resolve when it arrives in 2022 and 2023. 
• The robust investment sentiment for warehouse assets so far this year has already pushed prices up and yields down.  With Revitalization Policy 2.0 extended for another three years, we expect industrial investment to refocus more on run-down industrial premises with redevelopment potential.

本文最初发表于 https://www.savills.com.hk/

• Based on the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s (MTI) Q2 2021 economic survey, Singapore’s economy grew 14.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the second quarter of 2021. On a quarter-onquarter (q-o-q) seasonally-adjusted basis, Singapore’s economy actually contracted by 1.8% in Q2 2021, compared to the 3.3% q-o-q expansion recorded in the first quarter of 2021.
• Manufacturing continued to drive the recovery in Singapore, as semiconductor manufacturers and sub-contractors supporting electronics firms reaped the benefits of the global chip shortage. The precision engineering and electronics clusters recorded 24.3% and 18.3% y-o-y growth respectively. These numbers were overshadowed by the impressive growths seen in the transport engineering and chemicals clusters, which recorded 29.6% and 20.1% y-o-y growth respectively, although this was largely the result of the low base effects in 2020.

本文最初发表于 https://www.knightfrank.com/

• Prices of non-landed private residential properties (excluding Executive Condominiums (ECs)) grew by a marginal 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q3 2021** to 159.6, with transactions in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) being the main contributor to the rise. The quarterly increase was moderated when compared to Q1 and Q2 2021, where the index grew by 2.5% and 1.1% respectively.
• There were 7,103 non-landed private homes (excluding ECs) transactions in Q3 2021*, a slight 1.4% decrease q-o-q. While both Q2 and Q3 2021 included periods where Singapore was in or reverted to Phase 2 (Heightened Alert), quarterly sales volume largely held up above a respectable 7,000 units. Especially when compared to an average of about 4,162 units during the pre-pandemic year of 2019*.

本文最初发表于 https://www.knightfrank.com/

• 随着房地产市场交易步伐的普遍加快，第三季度录得约 $75 亿吨的投资交易，其中 49.7% 来自公共部门的交易。这一交易量与上一季度的 54 亿吨相比，环比增长了 38.71 吨，与去年同期的 48 亿吨相比，同比增长了 58.11 吨。.
• 第三季度的投资额主要来自于四块政府土地出让（GLS）地块的销售，其中滨海景观储备地块以 15 亿新元的价格成交，成为土地出让金额最高的地块，其次是 Jalan Anak Bukit 地块，成交价为 10 亿新元。随着近期某些GLS招标的疯狂竞价，其他渴望土地的开发商可能会将注意力转移到不同地点的小面积地块所提供的更大多样性上，如业主正试图集体出售的更容易接受数量的地块。Flynn Park 集体出售交易的成交价为 $.71 亿新元，即每平方英亩 1,355 新元，鉴于许多业主都热衷于集体出售其老化的单位，这可能会在整块市场上引起连锁反应。因此，售价在 S1TP4.6 亿或以下、约 600 个单位的项目可能会找到愿意购买的买家。.

本文最初发表于 https://www.knightfrank.com/

CBRE Research recently analysed the land and buildings held on balance sheets across 40 ASX200/NZX50 listed companies. What we discovered was that well over $AU24 billion of capital could be unlocked and reinvested into higher returning opportunities in the Materials, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Transport and Industrial sectors in Australia and New Zealand.

There is strong demand from listed and unlisted property funds for long-term leased properties. The ability to capitalise on improving market values, dispose of under-utilised assets and acquire capital to fund other business strategies are just some of the reasons why listed corporates are targeting owner-occupier sales. In the Pacific region alone, there has been a well-worn path of owner-occupier real with c.AU$11 billion already realised over the past five years.

With significant yield compression evident across all commercial asset types since 2015, particularly in the industrial property sector, the opportunity could be even higher than our initial AU$24 billion estimate as corporates in Australia and New Zealand revisit their property occupancy strategies to unlock value.

本文最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/

Australia’s residential pricing has reached record highs, with continued strong growth across almost all markets. The national median house price had risen 18.4% over the year to June with the national median unit price up 8.6%. There are signs, however, that price and lending growth is attracting the attention of regulators, with some forms of macro-prudential intervention looming. Initial curbs are likely to target highly leverage borrowers. APRA has already increased the minimum interest rate buffer ADI’s use in assessing loan serviceability from 2.5ppts to 3ppts above the actual loan rate, while Australia’s major banks have begun to take a more cautionary approach to some of their lending criteria.

本文最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/

• Compared to Q1 2021, investors are displaying a higher risk appetite amid the tight yield environment
• Asset enhancement, repositioning and taking on leasing risk are among the strategies utilised by investors to achieve higher returns
• Logistics assets remain keenly sought after while Grade A office in prime locations are attracting enquiries as investors look to capture flight-to-quality demand
• Further logistics cap rate compression has been observed. Cap rates for office and retail remain largely unchanged
• Investors are placing a strong emphasis on income-related factors such as tenant quality, rent roll stability and potential rental growth
• Amid uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic, the economic outlook is investors’ primary concern in 2022. Concerns over interest rate hikes and high inflation are limited

本文最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/

Sectoral performance in real estate is always under the microscope, but it has never been so acutely examined and reported as it has in the past 12 months. As COVID-19 first spread across the Asia Pacific region and then the globe, bringing with it a global recession, investors and occupiers alike sought not only to limit their exposures but also identify opportunities for growth.

Just as we have seen differing performance between commercial real estate sectors, so too have we seen differing performances within the retail sector. In this report, we focus on the upper echelons of retail – the (super) prime retail streets in cities across the region – as well as discuss other relevant aspects within the sector.

本文最初发表于 https://www.cushmanwakefield.com/

资本市场

With economic recovery gaining traction, preliminary real estate investment volume in Singapore increased 3.3% q-o-q to $7.317 bn for Q3 2021.

办公室

In Q3 2021, the Delta variant outbreak prompted a re-tightening of safe management measures. Despite the precarious situation, some positive signs were observed in Q3 2021.

商业园区

The leasing performance of the business park market is divided into two tiers; leasing demand is concentrated within the City Fringe submarket while demand for space in the Rest of Island submarket remains subdued.

零售

Recovery momentum for the retail market continued to be halted by retightened measures. There was recurring pressure on the submarkets that were affected by work-from-home measures and weak travel demand.

住宅

Despite heightened restrictions from end-Jul to mid-Aug 2021, market sentiment was not dampened. New home sales from Jan to Aug 2021 came to 9,265 units, 92.8% of 2020’s volume.

工业的

On the back of improving occupancies and strong leasing activity, landlords’ rental expectations increased. Occupier activity comprised of third-party logistics, food storage and electronics.

本文最初发表于 https://www.cbre.com/