Market Outlook

尽管目前的新冠肺炎（COVID19）疫情与2002-03年的SARS（SARS-CoV）疫情之 间不可避免地存在相关性，尤其是基线事件在本质上非常相似，因此多见以SARS事 件作为参考来分析此次疫情将会产生的潜在影响。然而，疫情发生的背景完全不同， 2002/03年的世界与今天的世界也截然不同。比如，当时美国及其盟国不久就对伊拉 克发动战争；美国经济更加脆弱；当时中国在世界经济中的影响力比现在要小得多……

Just as trade-related tensions appeared to be easing between the U.S. and China, the Asia Pacific region found itself at the forefront of the COVID-19 outbreak. The U.S.-China phase one trade deal was signed on Jan. 15, just as the coronavirus was becoming evident in Wuhan, Hubei. Asia Pacific became the first region to experience the real economic repercussions. China’s GDP growth will be dented, which in turn will exert economic stress on the Asia Pacific region and the global economy as a whole.

This guide gives a brief comparative overview of certain key insights to the real estate industry in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

• The novel coronavirus outbreak, first reported from Wuhan city in Hubei province, central China, represents a new downside risk for the regional economy.
• The first case of the coronavirus, now formally named COVID-19 by the World Health Organization, was reported on Dec. 31, 2019, and there have since been multiple developments with the virus and much speculation on the impacts.
• To help better understand the current and future impact on commercial real estate in key markets in Asia Pacific, Cushman & Wakefield has compiled their initial guidance and analysis in our Potential Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Commercial Real Estate in Asia Pacific report, which you click the Download button below.

We expect a global economic recession to eventuate. The key question is how quickly the economy bounces back. This mostly depends on how rapidly COVID-19 is contained. We believe that real estate in general will see strong investor support in the medium term due to the increased need for yield alternatives given record low bond yields on one hand, and, even if the equity market bounces back, a desire for stable asset classes on the other.

The first couple of months of 2020 have been dominated by fears of the novel coronavirus’s impact on global economies and property markets. Historically, investors tend to become more cautious in their investment choices during periods of heightened uncertainty, and this year has been no exception in the Asia Pacific region. However, a closer analysis of Real Capital Analytics data shows that investor risk aversion had already been growing over the prior months.

• COVID-19: Comparable to GFC shock and bigger, but unlike GFC, is a socio-biological calamity-driven stress and  has  engulfed the entire world. Damage is physical and psychological.
• Global economic decline projected in upcoming quarters- loss of investor confidence, consumption slowdown, loss of jobs (World GDP growth could even fall to 0% in initial two quarters of 2020, on the lower side*).
• Post COVID-19, however, the world to witness large-scale transformation and business boost.

Heightened political tensions, along with the weak economy and the lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, continued to affect business sentiment. Office tenants remained cautious and continued to seek downsizing and other cost-saving options, resulting in a 30% reduction in monthly rental costs because of downsizing and relocation since January 2020. In some sectors, such as banking and finance, office tenants put their plans on hold. Recent news about MNCs surrendered Grade-A office space highlighted the challenges office landlords face.

鉴于新冠疫情，房地产企业业务开展出现严重障碍和滞后，在财务领域带来一系列需要 应对的棘手问题。为协助房地产企业控制负面影响、做好业务持续发展规划、完善风险 管理机制和提升企业管理水平，毕马威凭借多年来服务于房地产企业财务税务领域的专 业经验，梳理了房地产企业近期应重点把握的财税问题和亟需开展的管理工作，供房地 产企业管理层、财务总监及财务负责人参考.

• From the fall of 2016, moderate expansion of Japan’s economy has continued. However, since 2018, the economy has turned to a stagnant trend and as of November 2018 it is in the midst of a moderate slowdown.
• Signs indicating a turnaround in the for-sale/transaction market for real estate in Japan, for example the decline in the contract rate of for-sale real estate and the bottoming out of transaction yields, are increasing. It appears that the market has already peaked out.