Market Outlook

Investment in China’s commercial market was already proving challenging towards the end of 2019 as fundamentals that had supported demand were softening while new supply was pushing up vacancy rates in many markets. This, combined with low yields, made underwriting deals problematic unless there was significant add-value or specific area support, such as new infrastructure or master planning.

Rent growth was solid in both the C5W and the 23W, with the latter leading the way over the quarter and year. That said, given current market conditions, growth looks likely to pause until the impact of COVID-19 becomes clearer.

•  Rent growth in the Tokyo 23 wards (23W) was solid during Q1/2020. Rents now stand at JPY4,155 per sq m – an increase of 2.7% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 5.8% year-on-year (YoY).
• A verage mid-market rents in the central fi ve wards (C5W) continued their ascent towards JPY5,000. They are now at JPY4,928 per sq m after growth of 1.8% QoQ and 5.4% YoY.
• T he C5W saw its premium over the 23W average contract to around 19%. Elsewhere, discounts widened in most other submarkets.

As we move further into the Covid-19 crisis and transaction activity continues to dwindle, investors are becoming increasingly concerned about market liquidity. Given the long-term nature of commercial real estate investment one should expect a certain amount of cyclicality during the period of ownership. However, at times of extreme stress the need for liquidity becomes paramount in order to preserve cash and lock in performance.

With 2019 being an average year in terms of new office supply, amid the intense competition for space, Grade A office vacancy in the C5W was close to nil. Meanwhile, underpinned by solid corporate profit growth – particularly in the technology sector – rents continued their upswing. Specifically, by year end, average Grade A rents in the C5W had reached JPY37,373 per tsubo per month – an increase of 8.0% year-on-year (YoY). Indeed, fundamentals appeared solid heading into the new decade, only for the COVID-19 outbreak to scupper the sector’s previously optimistic prospects.

Against the backdrop of a slowing domestic economy, coupled with global economic uncertainties and the protracted China–US trade war, the hotel industry in the Greater China region demonstrated weak performance in 2019. Among all major cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong, the Average Daily Rate (ADR) of five-star hotels shrank, and the occupancy rate dropped in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Macau still managed a slight increase in ADR, but the occupancy rate fell. The weak growth trajectory of the hotel industry was further dragged down by the COVID-19 outbreak and this is expected to continue in the first half of 2020. 

Commercial property prices pushed higher in the majority of leading global metros in the first quarter of 2020, the latest RCA CPPI Global Cities report shows, with the Covid-19 crisis not yet hitting sale prices. The headline rate of global price growth eased to 2.3% from a year ago and dipped 0.2% from the prior quarter, but most of the weakness came from declines already underway in Asia Pacific.

The volume of completed commercial real estate transactions shows activity slowing across all regions, the latest Real Capital Analytics data reading indicates. Looking at the count of closed deals the picture is even gloomier, as the Covid-19 crisis takes its toll on commercial property markets worldwide. Based on the dollar volume of transactions, activity in the Americas has dropped 7% in the first 125 days of the year versus the same period in 2019, and in Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) volume has fallen 14% from a year ago. A string of large M&A-type deals and portfolio transactions in the U.S. and Europe had put a gloss on headline activity figures in those markets in the first quarter.

継続するCOVID-19パンデミックは明らかに、第1四半期のアジア太平洋不動産市 場に影響を与えた主な要因でした。アウトブレイクの兆候から見られた地域全体の 市場の景況感は、強力な政府の景気刺激策が影響を和らげ、地域の多くのセクター で機会が生まれています。香港では、政治的および経済的不確実性が長期間続いた 後、新型ウィルスにより追い打ちの圧力がかかり、主要なプレーヤーが傍観者として 留まりました。同様にシンガポールでは、この不確実性から住宅と商業セクターの両 方で投資家が活動を制限し始めています。インドの不動産市場へのプライベートエ クイティの流入は大きく鈍化し、ミャンマーのようなダイナミックな新興市場への投 資は保留されています。 

新型コロナウイルスの感染拡大防止の観点から、在宅勤務体制へ移行する会社が増えています。政府は、関係団 体や事業者に対し、オフィスでの仕事は、原則として、自宅で行えるようにすること、やむを得ず出勤が必要な場   合も、出勤者を最低 7 割は減らすことなどの協力を要請するなどしています。業種によっては、又はインフラ面の課題から、対応に苦慮している事業者も少なくないと思いますが、対応が可能な会社においては、間接部門を中心に、在宅勤務体制への移行がより一層進められているものと思われます。
 

持続化給付金の対象とされる「影響を受ける」企 業とは、月間50％以上の売上減少した場合として 定義されている。また、4月17日、法務省は、新 型ウイルスに基づく家賃滞納の理由によるテナン トの立ち退き要請は、民法上の要件を満たす可能 性は低いと明言している事にも留意したい。