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The rapid economic growth of Asia-Pacific has had wide ranging consequences; supply chains have grown to exploit comparative advantages, particularly land and labour costs; investment capital has become better able and more willing to cross borders in search of higher returns and the benefits of diversification; and intra-regional travel and tourism has hit all time highs as more leisure time, higher incomes and substantial improvements in transport infrastructure have encouraged greater regional mobility.

Volume 1 discussed global event-correlations, impact on the economy, indications in stock markets, sector-specific sensitivities in India, etc.

Volume 2 focuses on

• The probable intensity of impact and likely scenarios for workspaces
• The re-calibrations in commercial spaces
• A conjecture on ‘fast-forwarding’ of an otherwise distant future!

总体而言，写字楼面临的是疫情和经济环境综合效应的影响。疫情对写字楼的 影响相对于购物中心、百货商场等商业物业有明显的滞后效应。餐饮业、旅游 业、零售业等服务业先受影响，之后可能传导到某些生产服务业。影响的程度更 多取决于本次疫情时间的长短。经济有自己运行的规律，传导需要时间。疫情影 响到写字楼需求端，以2003年非典及2008年经济危机的经验来看，滞后的规 律是通常是6个月左右的时间。如果说中美贸易战是长期影响的话，希望疫情 的影响是短期波动的，但疫情导致中小企业的经营压力对于部分写字楼需求造 成的负面影响可能会持续。 

2019 was a year to remember for the logistics sector. With the sector’s potential upside, investors were competing fi ercely to get some exposure to the asset class. Investment volumes and completions hit record highs, whilst logistics J-REIT unit prices soared. Looking forward, new initiatives by major retailers, such as Aeon and Nike, may have profound implications not only for the logistics sector, but also for retail. 

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欧米における急速な渡航制限・行動制限の拡大に伴い、新型コロナウイルスの国内外における事業活動への影響が一層深刻化してきています。感染拡大に伴う国内の各種法律問題に加え、海外に子会社・関係会社を抱える企業からの問い合わせも増えているため、当事務所の海外オフィスと連携して速報ベースで各国の方針や影響拡大状況の概要につきお知らせ致します。なお、本ニュースレターは感染拡大が続く間、不定期に配信していきたいと思いますが、同感染症の拡大状況については日々状況が変化している中、本ニュースレターの内容がその後変更・更新されている可能性については十分ご留意の上参照ください。本ニュースレターの内容は、特段記載のない限り、2020年3月17日夜時点で判明している情報に基づいています。

尽管目前的新冠肺炎（COVID19）疫情与2002-03年的SARS（SARS-CoV）疫情之 间不可避免地存在相关性，尤其是基线事件在本质上非常相似，因此多见以SARS事 件作为参考来分析此次疫情将会产生的潜在影响。然而，疫情发生的背景完全不同， 2002/03年的世界与今天的世界也截然不同。比如，当时美国及其盟国不久就对伊拉 克发动战争；美国经济更加脆弱；当时中国在世界经济中的影响力比现在要小得多……

Just as trade-related tensions appeared to be easing between the U.S. and China, the Asia Pacific region found itself at the forefront of the COVID-19 outbreak. The U.S.-China phase one trade deal was signed on Jan. 15, just as the coronavirus was becoming evident in Wuhan, Hubei. Asia Pacific became the first region to experience the real economic repercussions. China’s GDP growth will be dented, which in turn will exert economic stress on the Asia Pacific region and the global economy as a whole.