Thought Leadership

Q3 2022 Investment Trends features in-depth and up to date insights on demand drivers and other key investment trends in Australia, mainland China, Hong Kong SAR, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, India, Singapore, and New Zealand.

Key Trends

• Faster-than-expected interest rate hikes hinder acquisitions
• Purchasing led by real estate funds and institutional buyers
• Significant decline in logistics and hotel transactions
• Retail deal flow picks up
• Cross-border deals continue to rise y-o-y
• Fund-raising remains solid
• Investment activity is expected to weaken further

This report was originally published in https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/asia-pacific-investment-trends-q3-2022

Key Trends

• Leasing activity loses momentum
• Occupancy remains high
• 3PL and e-commerce drive demand
• Pacific markets underpin rental growth
• Investment interest stays firm
• Mild yield expansion in selected markets

This report was originally published in https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/asia-pacific-industrial-and-logistics-trends-q3-2022

Key Trends

• Retail sales growth slows
• Inflation and recessionary fears weigh on consumption
• Leasing activity shows slight recovery
• Luxury brands turn more active
• Zero-covid impacts mainland China demand
• Retailers set to remain cautious

This report was originally published in https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/asia-pacific-retail-trends-q3-2022

Key Trends

• Slower economic growth and inflationary pressure weigh on leasing activity
• Mainland China see mild recovery but other markets flat or weaker
• Finance, tech and coworking remain major demand drivers
• Rising construction and fit-out costs cause delays to new supply
• Flight to quality relocation still most popular strategy
• Occupiers set to remain cost cautious as economic worries mount

This report was originally published in https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/asia-pacific-office-trends-q3-2022

• The Asia Pacific flexible office space market continued to display cautious growth in 2022, with the total volume of flexible office space in the region reaching 76 million sq. ft. as of September, an increase of 6% y-o-y on 2021 and 15% on pre-pandemic levels.
• As of September, flexible office space accounted for about 4% of total office stock and 3% of total Grade A office stock in Asia Pacific. In the Grade A segment, India and Singapore reported the highest penetration of flexible office space, while most North Asian markets are just below 2%.
• Tech firms and business services companies remain the top corporate users of flexible office space. Interest is also growing among financial, life science and consumer product firms.
• Trends that will continue to shape the flexible office landscape in 2023 include:

1. Flexible space operators offering on-demand memberships to cater to more dispersed workforces resulting from the widespread adoption of hybrid work
2. Growing occupier demand for customised enterprise and turnkey solutions to mitigate rising fit out costs and CapEx constraints
3. The use of asset-light strategies as flexible space operators form partnership with landlords using management contracts

This report was originally published in https://www.cbre.com/insights/briefs/h2-2022-asia-pacific-flexible-office-market-deliberate-growth-continues

Almost three years after the onset of the global pandemic, the retail industry has been through one the biggest stress tests imaginable, but best-in-class real estate has remained robust – and even emerged stronger in some markets.

Cushman & Wakefield’s flagship Main Streets Across the World report tracks the top retail districts across 92 cities and ranks the most expensive by prime rental value. An annual report until 2019, this year’s report is the first since then, allowing insight into comparative performance pre- and post-pandemic.

Rent Growth Highlights

• Rents across global prime retail destinations declined by 13% on average during the depth of the pandemic but have rebounded to just 6% below pre-pandemic levels.
• The Americas, thanks largely the to the U.S., was the most resilient region – on average rents now sit at a 15% premium to pre-pandemic levels.
• In Asia Pacific rents fell on average by 17%, impacted by international border closures, which curbed tourism in prime locations.

Global Rankings

• New York’s Upper Fifth Avenue moves up one spot to number one, now ranks as the most expensive retail destination in the world.
• Hong Kong has slipped to second place, with Tsim Sha Tsui overtaking Causeway Bay as the most expensive precinct in the city-state.
• Via Montenapoleone in Milan has jumped two positions to achieve third place, followed by London’s New Bond Street and The Avenues des Champs Elysees in Paris rounding out the top five.

This quarter, the Knight Frank Data Centre report focuses on the growth markets of Asia Pacific. Market analysis includes Osaka, Melbourne, Jakarta, Manila, Hanoi, Taipei, and Indian cities Hyderabad, New Delhi and Chennai.

The growth trajectory of data centre supply noted in the principal global data centre markets in previous quarters is now being mirrored in secondary cities across the region. Underpinned by strong demand fundamentals and a trend towards greater localisation of data centre facilities, total supply (live, under construction, and committed capacity) in the reported APAC markets has grown from just under 700MW five years ago to over 3,000MW today. For the first three quarters of 2022 alone, around 600MW of new capacity has been added.

Melbourne, Jakarta and Osaka now each have over half a gigawatt of aggregate IT Supply. At 593MW of registered IT supply, Melbourne is seeing renewed interest from local and regional operators such as NextDC, AirTrunk, Vantage and Stack Infrastructure, which will add close to 450MW to existing live supply. Microsoft is also known to be planning a facility here. Jakarta has seen significant announcements and planned capacity, several times the existing supply, from both hyperscale cloud service providers like Amazon and Microsoft, as well as a variety of local and international operators. Osaka continues to develop as an alternative data centre market in Japan complementing the more established Tokyo region.

The major cities of Hyderabad, New Delhi and Chennai are also registering rapid growth, with between 300MW to 400MW of IT capacity each. About two-thirds of this supply was added in the past couple of years, with around 50% of total supply planned or committed capacity. The increased investment in the data centre sector in recent years is party driven by government policy, including easier access to credit and other incentives to boost data centre investment. Active players in the market include local firms such as CtrlS, Sify Technologies, Nxtra by Airtel and Web Werks, joint ventures such as AdaniConnex and BAM Digital Realty, as well as cloud service providers.

In Southeast Asia, Taipei, Manila and Hanoi continue to see growing interest from hyperscale CSPs and data centre investors. AWS announced local zones in both Manila and Hanoi this year and is in the process of rolling them out, while the global firm also launched its local zone in Taipei in October 2022. Current key players in these markets mainly comprise the local telcos, with a handful of regional joint ventures such as STT-Globe in the Philippines and NTT-VNPT in Vietnam.

Overall, the expansion of data centre activity into the growth markets across the APAC region remain on a strong footing, reflecting the continued resilience of demand across each geography.

This report was originally published in https://app.dcbyte.com/knight-frank-data-centres-report/Q3-2022/

In this article, we explore an emerging sub-set of infrastructure which is garnering increasing amounts of interest from global private equity and pension funds – Educational Infrastructure or ‘EduInfra’. EduInfra refers to the infrastructure, building and land used to deliver social services like education.

EduInfra is attractive to international annuity investors looking for stabilized yield plays. The sector has an edge over other similar asset classes due to its non-GDP linked and rather recession proof character with significant potential for capital appreciation. It offers a promising 10 – 11% entry cap rate with rental escalations in the region of 3 – 5%. While the market boasts of significant depth, potential has not been unleashed as operators are only slowly moving towards asset light models.  EduInfra’s classification as infrastructure allows for tax optimal exit through InvITs which can also serve as a growth platform attracting institutional investors.

This was originally published in https://resolutpartners.com/2022/11/15/eduinfra-emergence-of-a-new-asset-class/

Office: Macroeconomic headwinds and inflationary pressure weighed on office leasing activity in Q3 2022, pulling down net absorption by 11% q-o-q to 10.1 million sq. ft. NFA. Finance remained the main engine of leasing demand, with activity also seen from tech and co-working platforms. Rents increased by 0.4% q-o-q and 1.1% y-t-d.

Retail: Retail sales growth slowed as global recessionary fears continued to cloud consumer confidence. However, vacancy declined across the region along with the further easing of pandemic-related restrictions. Rents fell 1.8% y-o-y but posted a quarterly gain of 0.3% q-o-q.

Logistics: Leasing activity eased across Asia in Q3 2022, with markets including mainland China, Korea and India recording weaker demand. Leasing volume in the Pacific was weak compared with the same period of last year, owing to a further drop in availability. Rents grew by 1.4% in Q3 2022, a slightly slower rate than in the previous two quarters.

Investment: High interest rates continued to impair investment in major Asia Pacific markets, driving down commercial real estate investment volume by 20% y-o-y to US$27.3 billion. Acquisitions were driven by real estate funds, property companies, REITs, and institutional groups. Cross-border investment fell 1.0% y-o-y to US$8.0 billion.

This report was originally published in https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/asia-pacific-figures-q3-2022

E-commerce has grown rapidly over the past five years, with expansion accelerating since the pandemic. Despite e-commerce penetration moderating from pandemic highs after restrictions were lifted, CBRE expects future growth in Asia Pacific to continue to outpace the rest of the world. Of the six key e-commerce drivers identified by CBRE, Asia Pacific possesses a distinct advantage in three: Urban population growth, adoption of digital wallets and a vibrant e-commerce ecosystem.

As the retail industry continues to evolve toward omnichannel, so too will the role and functions of physical stores. Retailers and landlords need to re-invent themselves to prepare for the evolution of retail and the rise of omnichannel.

The growth of e-commerce is also driving robust industrial & logistics property demand, although the supply pipeline is unlikely to meet future demand. Logistics occupiers are advised to explore build-to-suit developments and invest in the latest warehouse technologies. 

Key highlights from this report include:

• CBRE forecasts Asia Pacific’s e-commerce penetration rate to grow to 35% by 2026. However, e-commerce penetration will vary across different product categories.
• Korea, mainland China, Indonesia, Australia and Taiwan are expected to be the five most penetrated e-commerce markets in Asia Pacific by 2026.
• While physical stores will remain essential, the rise of omnichannel is prompting many traditional brick-and-mortar retailers to consider new formats and locations.
• Over the next five years, 100 to 130 million sq. m. of additional dedicated
• e-commerce logistics space will be required to support the growth of online sales in Asia Pacific.

This report was originally published in https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/Asia-Pacific-Report-Omnichannel-Retail-and-its-Impact-on-Asia-Pacific-Real-Estate-October-2022