EduInfra – Emergence of a new asset class (Resolut Partners)
In this article, we explore an emerging sub-set of infrastructure which is garnering increasing amounts of interest from global private equity and pension funds – Educational Infrastructure or ‘EduInfra’. EduInfra refers to the infrastructure, building and land used to deliver social services like education.
EduInfra is attractive to international annuity investors looking for stabilized yield plays. The sector has an edge over other similar asset classes due to its non-GDP linked and rather recession proof character with significant potential for capital appreciation. It offers a promising 10 – 11% entry cap rate with rental escalations in the region of 3 – 5%. While the market boasts of significant depth, potential has not been unleashed as operators are only slowly moving towards asset light models. EduInfra’s classification as infrastructure allows for tax optimal exit through InvITs which can also serve as a growth platform attracting institutional investors.
Office: Macroeconomic headwinds and inflationary pressure weighed on office leasing activity in Q3 2022, pulling down net absorption by 11% q-o-q to 10.1 million sq. ft. NFA. Finance remained the main engine of leasing demand, with activity also seen from tech and co-working platforms. Rents increased by 0.4% q-o-q and 1.1% y-t-d.
Retail: Retail sales growth slowed as global recessionary fears continued to cloud consumer confidence. However, vacancy declined across the region along with the further easing of pandemic-related restrictions. Rents fell 1.8% y-o-y but posted a quarterly gain of 0.3% q-o-q.
Logistics: Leasing activity eased across Asia in Q3 2022, with markets including mainland China, Korea and India recording weaker demand. Leasing volume in the Pacific was weak compared with the same period of last year, owing to a further drop in availability. Rents grew by 1.4% in Q3 2022, a slightly slower rate than in the previous two quarters.
Investment: High interest rates continued to impair investment in major Asia Pacific markets, driving down commercial real estate investment volume by 20% y-o-y to US$27.3 billion. Acquisitions were driven by real estate funds, property companies, REITs, and institutional groups. Cross-border investment fell 1.0% y-o-y to US$8.0 billion.
Omnichannel Retail and its Impact on Asia Pacific Real Estate (CBRE)
E-commerce has grown rapidly over the past five years, with expansion accelerating since the pandemic. Despite e-commerce penetration moderating from pandemic highs after restrictions were lifted, CBRE expects future growth in Asia Pacific to continue to outpace the rest of the world. Of the six key e-commerce drivers identified by CBRE, Asia Pacific possesses a distinct advantage in three: Urban population growth, adoption of digital wallets and a vibrant e-commerce ecosystem.
As the retail industry continues to evolve toward omnichannel, so too will the role and functions of physical stores. Retailers and landlords need to re-invent themselves to prepare for the evolution of retail and the rise of omnichannel.
The growth of e-commerce is also driving robust industrial & logistics property demand, although the supply pipeline is unlikely to meet future demand. Logistics occupiers are advised to explore build-to-suit developments and invest in the latest warehouse technologies.
Key highlights from this report include:
CBRE forecasts Asia Pacific’s e-commerce penetration rate to grow to 35% by 2026. However, e-commerce penetration will vary across different product categories.
Korea, mainland China, Indonesia, Australia and Taiwan are expected to be the five most penetrated e-commerce markets in Asia Pacific by 2026.
While physical stores will remain essential, the rise of omnichannel is prompting many traditional brick-and-mortar retailers to consider new formats and locations.
Over the next five years, 100 to 130 million sq. m. of additional dedicated
e-commerce logistics space will be required to support the growth of online sales in Asia Pacific.
As the global economy continues to chart a path in the post-pandemic world, real estate investment has a new favourite buzzword – new economy assets. While the term arose with the advent of digital and internet technologies, amid surging inflation and rising interest rates, new economy assets have taken on a whole lot of significance.
So, what is so new about the new economy? A key dynamic is the integration of digital technologies that is overhauling old economy services and products, spurred innovative distribution channels and sparked new, high-growth industries that are plugged into the tech and science megatrends. Increasingly, digital transformation is shaping the way we live, work and play and the real estate sectors underpinning this megatrend is set for a multi-year upcycle.
Riding the digital wave
The evolution of industry with the rise of new technologies is certainly not new. Throughout history, innovation has hastened creative destruction and redefined the global economy, with mobile technologies and the rise of e-commerce at the centre of the digital age. While the shift was under way before the pandemic, the impact of social distancing has been significant. The need to stay connected during the outbreak fast-tracked digital adoption. Across industries, companies were compelled to employ communication and mobile technologies and pivot to tech-enabled services.
The transition has prompted the rise of asset classes that are more geared to the requirements of the digital landscape. From cell towers and data centres to logistics hubs that make online living possible, the saying that real estate houses the economy also holds true in the new digital era. It is simple yet compelling link: megatrends need real estate and the bigger the tech, the more infrastructure required. The impact of digital disruption, magnified, will continue reverberating beyond the pandemic and drive structurally higher levels of technology investment.
Asia Pacific remains well positioned to ride the digital wave. Already by far the largest market for retail e-commerce, the region, home to more than half of the world’s population has over 60% born after 1990 – digital natives that will drive the adoption of digital technologies. According to a survey by McKinsey, this was fast forwarded by four years by consumers in the Asia Pacific while those for businesses leapt by 10 during the pandemic, the highest globally.
A spectrum of investment opportunities
This has cast several alternative sectors in a new light, awaking investors to the potential that such assets hold. Healthcare and Life Sciences became prominent in the wake of the health crisis while demand for streaming content have attracted funds to develop film production studios. Still, although a major headline, new economy real estate is not just about technology. Primarily, it is about capturing the underlying trends that are now rippling across Asia Pacific and globally.
A case in point is the region’s living sector, which is at the forefront of such shifts. Rapid urbanization, ageing demographics and remote working are propelling the nascent living sectors – from Multifamily to Co-living and Assisted Living – into the mainstream and attracting massive institutional funds. As more people gravitate to cities, the need for the required infrastructure buildup has also created a spectrum of long-term investment opportunities. In a low-growth, inflationary environment that we are now saddled with in this new normal, Infrastructure is an ideal countercyclical given its potential to provide high, stable and inflation-linked returns.
The resilience of such sectors is visibly demonstrated in listed real estate. Healthcare, Industrial and Residential REITs, as tracked by the GPR/APREA REIT Composite, have sustained positive annualized returns over a three-year period while those in Office, Hospitality and Retail are in the red. Notably, Industrial REITs’ market capitalization have risen over 50% during the pandemic, and despite the recent correction, remain more than 30% higher than its pre-pandemic peak.
Rebalancing and future-proofing
This new real estate world order have also wrought changes to investment strategies. An important feature in the new economy is the emergence of digital leaders and the inter-dependence of value chains, which create significant network effects. That means achieving scale rapidly is critical for investors to capture a large portion of market share in a sector.
To access the opportunities thrown up in the new landscape, investors need speed with execution. This means a need to build heft rapidly. Across the region, real estate players have restructured and pursuing M&As to expand and remain relevant, with integrated asset and fund management arms that has created an end-to-end platform to develop and incubate real estate developments through to its injection into a public vehicle. REITs with stabilized portfolios of new economy assets in developed markets are now being targeted in mega deals.
The current economic environment is creating an urgent need for investors to rebalance and future proof their portfolios. New economy sectors sit at the crossroads of major demographic and economic shifts as well as technological trends, which are occurring in the region and visibly underserved by traditional real estate classes. Layering in climate change concerns adds a further dimension to the idea of new economy assets, expanding possibilities.
In a rising rate environment and surging inflationary pressures, identifying sectors that are structurally undersupplied with the right long term demand fundamentals which generates positive rental reversions will be crucial in sustaining real returns. On all counts, new economy real estate is a powerful thematic that checks these boxes. These compelling fundamentals, taking place in a region that could eventually host more than half of the world’s megacities, promises a massive investment opportunity in the very assets that will be critical in securing its future.
Sigrid Zialcita
CEO Asia Pacific Real Assets Association
Sigrid Zialcita
CEO Asia Pacific Real Assets Association
Sigrid is the Chief Executive Officer of Asia Pacific Real Assets Association (APREA). Based in Singapore, she is responsible for overseeing the strategic direction, initiatives and operations of the association across Asia Pacific. Under her leadership, APREA repositioned to an industry trade group focusing on real estate and infrastructure.
Prior to APREA, she served as Managing Director of Asia Pacific Research and Advisory Services of Cushman & Wakefield (C&W) from 2010 through 2018, where she was responsible for research, thought leadership, strategy formulation and client management.
A recognized expert in global economic, public policy and real estate issues, Sigrid is a frequent speaker at industry events. Her commentary on commercial and residential real estate markets is also regularly featured in a wide array of global publications, including the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Bloomberg, New York Times and Reuters. Additionally, she has made several television appearances on financial networks and radio such as CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, National Public Radio and Channel News Asia.
The Asia Pacific logistics & industrial market continues to perform strongly, underpinned by strong fundamentals – though there is emerging evidence that growth is switching from the investment market to the occupier market.
Rebound, Revenge & Re-Invent: A New Journey for Retail Realty (Cushman & Wakefield)
The retail sector is considered a core asset class in the Indian real estate industry. Currently, it is recovering from the toughest business climate it has ever experienced due to the pandemic. Retailers, developers, and investors are taking cautious steps while delving into the segment, owing to 2 main factors – the e-commerce onslaught, and higher digital adoption among consumers.
There was a strong return to malls after restrictions were lifted. Revenues and footfalls of mall developers and retailers have largely recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
Cushman & Wakefield’s latest report on a new journey for retail realty addresses:
Rebound – Retail real estate’s current story Revenge – As pandemic fears recede, a shopping culture has emerged Re-Invent – Retailers and mall developers consider the adoption of digital & analytics and tech integrations
To read more about the journey of the retail sector of India’s real estate, read the report: Rebound, Revenge & Re-Invent.
2022 Asia Pacific Hotels & Hospitality Update: A Roadmap to Recovery (CBRE)
Confidence in Asia Pacific’s Hotels & Hospitality market continues to grow as borders reopen and operating performance recovers to pre-pandemic levels.
The recovery continues to be largely driven by domestic demand, with international arrivals accelerating in markets within the Pacific and Southeast Asia, which have loosened entry and quarantine restrictions and are now open to all arrivals. CBRE forecasts tourism arrivals within the region to reach pre-pandemic levels by 2024, with hotels performance to reach 2019 levels in the same period.
Furthermore, given the daily pricing structure and flexibility of rate changes in an evolving economic climate, hotels provide an inflationary hedge. CBRE is therefore forecasting increased investor appetite for operational real estate, such as hotels, as a strategy to enhance and/or maintain portfolio returns.
Unlocking Strategy in a Changing Environment (Cushman & Wakefield)
This report, Part II in Cushman & Wakefield’s Reset 2022 trilogy, brings together the views of a panel of institutional investors as shared during the webinar “Unlocking Strategy in a Changing Environment”.
The analysis in this report draws upon these views along with live audience polling conducted during the webinar and the results of an investor intention survey conducted over approximately three weeks in August 2022.
Asia Pacific Occupier Trends – Concerns, Priorities and Strategies Ahead (CBRE)
Rising inflation, zero-covid policies in mainland China and ongoing supply chain bottlenecks are just a few of the headwinds that continue to cloud the operating environment for occupiers of commercial real estate in Asia Pacific.
As slowing GDP growth prompts many companies to tighten their belts, CBRE’s recent surveys of office, retail and logistics tenants, along with wide-ranging discussions with corporate clients, have uncovered several common themes in how occupiers are adapting and responding to these challenges.
The seven key trends we expect to influence occupier portfolio strategy and leasing demand over the remainder of the year and into 2023 are as follows:
RevPAR and ADR performance across Asia Pacific in Q2
The recovery of Singapore’s hotel market, including an outlook of supply
The case for investing in hotel assets and recommended strategies for investors
Two quarters into 2022 and what travel in a post-COVID-19 world will be is starting to take shape. Travel restrictions continue to be reduced en-masse across the world, with airline traffic up to 69% of pre-COVID (2019) levels at the end of March 2022. According to the latest forecast by IATA, air traffic is expected to exceed pre-COVID levels by 2024. Driving demand for those seats will be domestic and increasing number of tourists, with the UNWTO forecast that by tourism arrivals would have exceeded 2019 levels by the end of 2023 in certain regions.
Once heralded as the harbinger of doom for business and group travel – it seems the desire to meet in-person has once again triumphed, as leisure (mostly visit, friends and relatives), meetings, and events travel lead the recovery.
However, once again head winds threaten. Whether it’s the ever-present threat of a resurgence of a deadly variant, high inflation, labour bottlenecks and increased cost of living has meant reduced disposable income. Question is, will the desire to travel outweigh the need to save, thereby dampening the recovery, at least in the short-term.
In terms of hotel performance, room occupancies across Asia increased to 48.5%, with ADR improving to US$83.69, a recovery in RevPAR of 12.3%. However, there remains a great divide between the more open Southern countries versus the closed Northern region, with China especially remaining closed for the foreseeable future.
Kemmu Kawai joined Longevity Partners Japan in September 2022 as the Country Director. Based in Tokyo, he oversees all operations and activities in Japan, the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. He brings him more than 16 years of experience in finance where he specialised in real estate and credit investments. Before joining Longevity Partners, he served as a Portfolio Manager at Norinchukin Bank and as Investment Manager at Center Point Development.
