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The Asia-Pacific Horizon report examines the present economic and geopolitical landscape, evaluates the challenges and opportunities within the Residential and Commercial sectors, and provides guidance on unlocking potential.
The Asia Pacific commercial real estate market will see a modest improvement this year on the back of a resilient regional economy and the downward interest rate cycle. However, the outlook by market and sector will vary, often significantly, leading us to adopt “Steady Growth, Split Performance: Navigating a Multispeed Recovery” as the central theme of our 2025 Asia Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook.
Economy: Asia Pacific GDP growth is forecasted to reach 4.1% in 2025. Although U.S. tariffs could weigh on regional growth, the precise implementation and impact of any new tariff regime remains uncertain. Policy rates across many Asia Pacific economies are forecasted to fall at relatively modest magnitudes, except for Japan, which is expected to implement further interest rate hikes this year.
Capital Markets: CBRE forecasts commercial real estate transaction volume to rise 5-10% y-o-y in 2025, driven by growth in Singapore, Korea, Australia and Hong Kong SAR, and continued investor interest in Japan and India. With individual Asia Pacific markets at different stages of the pricing cycle, yield movement will diverge across markets.
Office: Leasing activity and rents are expected to register modest growth, with flight to quality demand remaining prominent. This will drive additional requirements for high-quality office space in prime core locations, with properties in non-core areas set to become even less attractive.
Industrial & Logistics: Expansionary sentiment among logistics occupiers will gradually pick up this year, backed by a mild increase in requirements from manufacturers and e-commerce platforms. However, most occupiers will retain a cautious approach towards real estate portfolio planning amid high rental growth.
Retail: Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in 2025 amid the solid employment market, leading to stronger retail sales growth. Regional retail rents will continue their slow but steady recovery as retailers retain a cautiously optimistic attitude towards real estate planning.
Hotels: The outlook for the hotel sector is positive, with international tourism projected to complete its recovery in 2025. CBRE expects modest RevPAR growth in 2025, driven by further hotel occupancy gains as daily rates continue to moderate.
The Asia Pacific real assets market is set for a vibrant 2025, offering diverse investment opportunities across established cities such as Tokyo and Sydney, as well as emerging markets including India and Vietnam. Key drivers include economic expansion, infrastructure development, and shifts in global supply chains, leading to growing demand for sectors such as industrial logistics, multifamily housing, and data centers. These opportunities are further enhanced by urbanization, rising income levels, and the integration of technology and sustainability in real estate strategies. Despite challenges such as geopolitical risks and rising costs, the Asia Pacific remains a top choice for global investors seeking a balance of growth and stability.
CBRE’s 2025 Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey uncovered an improvement in buying intentions across most markets in Asia Pacific this year, with over half of respondents indicating their preference to buy more real estate in 2025. With the interest rate cut cycle underway in most markets, investors are gearing up for an increase in activity over the next 12 months, albeit with individual Asia Pacific markets staggered at different stages of the pricing and investment cycles.
Although real estate investment activity in most markets is forecasted to increase through 2025, the extent at which it will do so will differ according to location. While markets including Australia, Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong SAR are expected to see gains in transaction activity in 2025, investors are less optimistic about the extent of rate cuts in 2025, which could weigh on investment sentiment throughout the year. After a strong 2024, Japan and India are expected to witness robust purchasing activity in 2025, with core/core-plus investment strategies in the former and opportunistic strategies in the latter most prevalent.
The survey was conducted in November and December 2024. Over 460 responses were received from participants who were asked a range of questions related to their buying intentions, perceived challenges and preferred investment strategies, sectors, and markets for the coming year.
Other key findings:
November was another challenging month with the results of the US election weighing on the REIT space and Asian currencies. However, there was a decent recovery starting mid-month and we did start to see a recovery in the JPY as attention is now shifting to monetary policy with upcoming meetings by the Fed and BOJ. Overall, we expect that the BOJ has enough justification to move again in December as US jobs and growth continue to be solid which reduces the likelihood of aggressive Fed interest rate cuts and Japan’s economic data continues to be solid. Inflation is running above the BOJ target for 30 consecutive months and while there are some more dovish members that may dissent, we expect another hike this December.
Trump 2.0 has become a major worry for Asia and the impact of higher rates and weaker currencies led to a sharp sell-off in October well before the election. The magnitude was similar to the sell-off following Trump’s surprise victory in 2016 as were the concerns (i.e., protectionist policies, inflation concerns). RE Securities in Asia ended up rallying from the December 2016 lows about one month after the election and rose 15% from the bottom despite overall economic concerns including interest rates. The Fed raised interest rates three times in 2017. What appears different this time is that the correction started well before the election result in both securities and currencies and while the pace of interest rate cuts could be dialled back from previous expectations, it is unlikely the Fed will tighten in 2025.
CBRE’s latest leasing market sentiment index reveals that overall leasing sentiment improved in Q4 2024, led by Japan and Korea, with the leasing pipeline to improve slightly across all sectors in 2025:
The private credit market in APAC is experiencing rapid growth, offering flexible funding solutions as traditional bank lending tightens. Key opportunities include construction financing, value-add projects, and conversions such as office-to-residential developments, appealing to both investors and asset owners. With increasing institutional interest and growing demand from Asian investors, private credit is solidifying its role as a vital financing tool in the region’s real estate landscape.
Stay ahead of the curve with APREA’s exclusive monthly update tracking the performance of China REITs.
APREA C-REITs Roundup provides the latest info and developments in C-REITs. Available for APREA members only, this important resource is your key to navigating the landscape of C-REITs.
Stay ahead of the curve with APREA’s exclusive monthly update tracking the performance of China REITs.
APREA C-REITs Roundup provides the latest info and developments in C-REITs. Available for APREA members only, this important resource is your key to navigating the landscape of C-REITs.
Stay ahead of the curve with APREA’s exclusive monthly update tracking the performance of China REITs.
APREA C-REITs Roundup provides the latest info and developments in C-REITs. Available for APREA members only, this important resource is your key to navigating the landscape of C-REITs.
Kemmu Kawai joined Longevity Partners Japan in September 2022 as the Country Director. Based in Tokyo, he oversees all operations and activities in Japan, the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. He brings him more than 16 years of experience in finance where he specialised in real estate and credit investments. Before joining Longevity Partners, he served as a Portfolio Manager at Norinchukin Bank and as Investment Manager at Center Point Development.
Kemmu Kawai
Managing Director
Longevity Partners
