Market Outlook

Flexible workspaces in India grew at a CAGR of 38% from 2017 to 2019, with many local and global operators entering the space, led by increasedFlexible workspaces in India grew at a CAGR of 38% from 2017 to 2019, with many local and global operators entering the space, led by increaseddemand from corporate occupiers or enterprise clients. As of end-February 2021, the total flexible workspace stock stood at 30 million squarefeet (2.8 million square meters), across the top six Indian cities. Due to muted demand amid uncertain conditions, 2020 saw flexible workspaceoperators lease 2.9 million square feet (269,000 square meters) of space, down by 75.8% from 2019. This was about 8.5% of the total leasingrecorded across the top six cities. Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Mumbai accounted for the bulk of transactions as some operators expanded theirfootprints, mainly in decentralized locations. Further, deals totalling around 1.7 million square feet (158,000 square meters), which were precommittedor in the final stages, were cancelled across the top six cities.

As of March 2021, about 65% of the desks on offer are leased, across the top flexible workspace operators’ portfolios. Though the bulk of thisspace is occupied by established corporates as opposed to freelancers or start-ups, and we think there is still scope for enterprise clients to takeupmore flexible workspace as operators are offering attractive prices for large or multi-location deals. The leasing period is currently about oneto two years as firms look at flexible workspaces as a temporary solution to accommodate their workforce until they finalize their expansion andfootprints beyond 2023.

In their latest outlook report for 2021, Colliers estimates that institutional investments in Indian real estate will grow by 14.6% to INR 396 billion (USD 5.5 billion) from INR346 billion (USD4.8 billion) in 2020. For comparison, 2020 had witnessed a drop of 23% from 2019. Colliers believes that institutional investors continue to be bullish on Indian real estate asset classes such as offices, data centers and warehouses and they are looking to deploy their existing dry powder.

“The investment climate in India is very buoyant with global investors’ interest in real assets getting stronger. With global interest rates at historic lows and positive net yields in India, the country has emerged among the preferred destinations for investments in real estate. Further, the resilience of the Indian market is also evident from continued good housing sales performance across various markets, the large institutional investments in commercial office and industrial parks, and the listing of two REITs in the past six months.”

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Hong Kong Island Grade-A office leasing demand remained soft in December amid weak economic conditions and the traditional offseason, but the overall market was buoyed by the professional sector, particularly the finance and legal service industries, which took up space in premium buildings in the CBD area. Two Chinese Mainland financial companies, the Bank of Dongguan and FountainVest Partners, leased an entire floor in Two IFC, which was previously occupied by Nomura Holdings. Medical companies also expanded their footprint in the core districts. A medical centre leased the entire top floor of 9 Queen’s Road Central to meet the increasing demand for healthcare and wellbeing. Given the weak economic situation, some tenants gave up more office space. With the current high vacancy rate of 7.8% on Hong Kong Island, we expect some landlords to soften their approach and be more willing to negotiate.

Kowloon Leasing activity in Kowloon continued to slow down in December. New lease transactions dropped by 20% on a monthly basis. Most of the leasing activity was in Kowloon East, at monthly rents below HK$25 per sq ft. While most industries have been largely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, the logistics industry has remained strong and is one of the winners. Some logistics companies have taken advantage of this golden opportunity in the downbeat market to expand and upgrade their work environment and location. A recent notable example was the relocation of logistics giant DHL. It moved out of Megabox and took up a 91,015 sq ft space in the premium Grade A office International Trade Tower in Kwun Tong, making it the largest new lease acquisition in the market so far in 2020.After reviewing its office requirements, DHL chose to reconfigure its work pattern and adopt agile work practices to achieve workplace size optimisation. Curtailed by the pandemic and economic uncertainty, tenants will continue to be cost-sensitive and seek cost-effective options in Kowloon. Given the approach of the traditional festive season and the continuing unstable COVID-19 situation, we expect leasing demand to remain soft and the current low-level leasing volume to last until at least Lunar New Year.

In this January 2021 issue, we take a look at the latest updates on the local commercial real estate market as well as share an outlook for the sector in 2021.

• While the gradual return to office is expected this year, the office segment may not immediately return to its pre-pandemic vibrancy as the uncertain global business environment may continue to affect expansion decisions of businesses over the short to medium term. The office segment, however, is seen to benefit from the anticipated growth of the IT-BPM sector with the United States’ less protectionist policies under its new administration.
  
• The new COVID-19 variant has caused renewed anxiety and further stalls the resumption of international travel. It is also seen to discourage domestic travel as the country extends the more stringent community quarantine qualification in major urban areas and tourist destinations, thus, further blurring the tourism industry outlook.

Q4 2020 was a crucial quarter as it marked a recovery momentum with leasing indicators trending favourably compared to the previous couple of quarters. In a time of change with COVID upending the workplace playbook, the leasing trends and occupier strategies are undergoing a rapid shift and will have a bearing on market activity. Even as the COVID scenario was evolving and occupiers continued with evaluating their real estate portfolios and charting their space requirements, almost all the cities saw heightened levels of market activity with expansion driven demand making a comeback of sorts as well.  Mumbai, Pune, Delhi NCR, Ahmedabad, and Kolkata have witnessed higher fresh leasing activity for expansion and consolidation during the last quarter of the year. This augurs well for the leasing momentum in 2021, which is likely to get broad-based across cities with introduction of a vaccine and a gradual return to the workplace providing the much-needed push to market activity. 

In this report, we analyse the Indian office markets’ performance in Q4 as well as during the full year of 2020.  

Although office leasing activity was generally more muted in Q4 compared to other quarters in the year, it was broadly similar to Q4/2019 levels.

• Demand for office space largely emanated from tenants looking for replacement space because of the need to move out of older buildings to be redeveloped, as well as tenants with office leases due for renewal.

• Owing to the uncertainties arising from the pandemic, tenants are continuing to adopt a wait-and-see approach and looking for clarity on trends to emerge on future workplace practices before deciding on future office space requirements.

• In Q4, the office market saw relatively significant leasing deals from technology companies. These companies are expected to continue expanding their presence in Singapore, which they deem as an attractive base due to its political stability, strategic position and strong economic fundamentals.

Strata Office Market outlook

•  In 2021, the strata office market together with the larger office sector in Singapore is expected to remain under pressure, with companies critically reviewing the way space is occupied in the post-pandemic era characterised by evolving remote work protocols. Therefore, transaction volumes as well as prices are likely to remain subdued for at least the first six months of the year.
• Nevertheless, as office users rationalise and right-size their space requirements, occupiers such as small enterprises may turn towards owner-occupied strata offices as a viable alternative to tenanted space. As such demand for strata offices, especially those in central locations, could improve in the second half of 2021.

Strata Retail Market outlook

• Moving forward, the global economic outlook remains uncertain with recurring infections in other nations despite the distribution of the vaccines. And even if vaccine distribution proves to be successful, prices of strata retail units in Singapore are envisaged to remain soft with more distressed sales expected due to the lack of tourists and safe distancing measures still in place.
• The demand for such strata spaces is expected to come from proprietors that intend to run their own businesses, preferring to set up shop in locations where strata retail developments tend to be typically located. Often the lower costs when compared to renting retail space in a prime shopping mall in the same location act as the greatest incentive.
• Thus, with the retail market gravitating towards more experiential placemaking strategies and migrating some of their services to digital platforms, there is a growing imperative for strata retail storeowners to also adopt similar ways to survive in a market that is in constant change.

2020 was a challenging year for Philippine real estate and the global property market, but we see the new year as a promising time for sectors such as industrial & logistics, office, residential, REITs, and data centers, among others. The industrial & logistics sector was the most stable asset class in the past year, and there are huge opportunities in the e-commerce and the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines. The office sector is likely to perform better than 2020, while we anticipate residential real estate to exhibit a slow but gradual rebound.

In 2021, macrotrends such as the boom of e-commerce, flexible office setups, and continued decentralization outside Metro Manila
are likely to continue and contribute to the property market’s soft recovery.

The Philippine population, which has grown at 1.5% on average each year since 2015, is key to recovery. This growth has created a “demographic sweet spot” and continues to drive consumption and, in particular, the expansion of online retail and the related logistics platforms. The young Philippine population will also continue to keep the country at the forefront of the global BPO industry as outsourcing continues to increase.

Global Economy

• Global growth estimated to decline by 3.5% in 2020 but expected to rise by 5.5% in 2021
• Advanced economies likely to grow by 4.3% in 2021 on the back of the early rollout of vaccines
• Emerging economies are expected to grow by 6.3% in 2021 on the back of a contracted base

Indian Economy 

• India’s GDP growth for FY21 is estimated to decline by 7.7%, hit by the global pandemic and the lockdown
• Private consumption estimated to contract by 9.5% in FY21 based on income loss, mobility restrictions, and supply constraints
• Government consumption estimated to rise by 5.8% due to increased expenditure as part of pandemic relief packages.
• Investment estimated to decline by 14.5% due to economic uncertainty and delay in implementation of capital projects

Outlook 

• Consumption indicators, including FMCG, auto sales, and GST collection indicate a faster demand recovery in Q3
• Continued momentum post-pandemic in health, pharma, telecom, and technology (e-commerce, fintech, ed-tech, etc.) owing to a significant shift in consumption patterns
• The pandemic has led to a preference for digital services and adoption of digitalisation in many companies
• GDP is estimated to grow at 11% in FY22 owing to robust growth in consumption and investment and lower base effect