Market Data Vault

Overview

Asia Pacific equities reversed two months of consecutive declines to record their best monthly performance since December last year. The benchmark, which has been roiled by China’s regulatory crackdown in sectors from technology, education and property, rose 2.5% in August to outperform the regional property counters. Investors took heart at comments made from the Fed’s closely watched annual Jackson Hole meeting, after the Fed Chair reiterated that tapering does not mean tightening. The region’s markets also cheered after the Chinese central bank made its biggest weekly cash injection into the banking system since February. Still, the bounce came after July’s pummeling as it continued to lag the region’s property counters year-to-date with just 2.4% returned, as compared to the region’s real estate and REIT benchmarks tracked by GPR/APREA, which had risen 5.5% and 10.7,% respectively.

Listed Real Estate

The wider GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate rose 1.2% in August, after China’s property counter rose for the first time in four months. Opportunistic investors likely took a bet on the region’s oversold counters despite lingering pressure on China’s real estate sector, seeing light at the end of the regulatory tunnel as the scope for further substantial tightening narrows. Market expectations of a new rule to cap the land price premium at 15% also boosted confidence in the sector, which if implemented would cut developers’ cost of land purchases. However, Hong Kong counter did not fare as well, slumping by the most in the region. Thailand stocks rallied to lead the region’s gains after the government announced it will ease restrictions in Bangkok as well as other provinces next month, with infections and mortality rates falling as vaccinations picked up speed.

REITs

The GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index rose for a ninth consecutive month in August, gaining 1.0% to take the index to a new peak. This was mainly on the back of Australian REITs, which clocked the region’s strongest performance as the strength of its property market in recent months shored up valuations. However, the region’s other major REIT markets ended August mostly lacklustre, with those in Singapore falling 2.2% to lead the region’s declines. Defensive sectors stood out with Industrial, Healthcare and Residential REITs outperforming.

Meanwhile, Singapore is seeing heightened M&A activity, reinforcing a consolidation trend in the region. Hong Kong’s ESR Cayman has offered US$5.2 billion for the entire share capital of Singapore-based ARA Asset Management for US$5.2 billion, in a move that will create the region’s biggest and the world’s third-largest listed real estate asset manager. Both companies hold stakes and operate several REITs across the region. Meanwhile, Keppel Corp, a majority stakeholder and manager of Keppel REIT, tabled S$2.2 billion to take SPH, which operates SPH REIT, private.

Aside from the Philippines, REITs are also expanding their presence on the South Korean bourse. The nation debuted ts first REIT of the year – D&D Platform REIT – in August, a multisector REIT managed by conglomerate SK’s real estate arm D&D Investment. SK REITs, which started a book building exercise in the same month is poised for a September debut. The country expects another four listings to occur before the end of the year.

Outlook

Asia Pacific’s economic rebound has clearly taken a hit from the rapid spread of delta variant. As the surge in infection caseloads caught much of the region off guard, governments in most countries are switching tack from a zero Covid strategy, which has grown increasingly untenable in the face of the fast-moving delta variant. In an evolving battle with the pandemic, authorities are focusing on targeting a threshold vaccination rate that will allow a transition to an endemic stage of the pandemic and end the cycle of restrictions. However, the region’s REITs have remained resilient despite the uncertainty. With a Fed taper likely to precede any rate lift, the inability of the central bank to provide a clear timing signals that rates will remain lower for longer, which will continue to sustain interest in dividend plays. REITs has also remained immune to China’s regulatory wrath. The crackdown has not resulted in value destruction for China REIT proxies, which remained positive in August and has so far returned 4.5% this year. Logistics and industrial property REITs that were part of China’s first batch of nine REITs also rose through August.

Overview

Asia Pacific equities declined by close to 5% in July to surrender all its gains this year, weighed down by the Chinese government’s regulatory crackdown on the education, internet and property sectors. The tech heavy total return index, as tracked by MSCI, fell to its lowest since November last year.  While property related counters were not spared, it fared relatively better as the region’s REITs, with a more diverse geographical base, supported real estate indices. Risks were also firmly on the downside as the rapid rise in infections intensified in the region, clouding the prospects of an economic recovery. The Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates at near zero was largely priced in but the lack of any clear conviction to taper its bond purchases propped up markets, indicating that a monthly pace of US$120 billion will be maintained until substantial further progress had been made on employment and inflation.

Listed Real Estate

The wider GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate tumbled in July, as double-digit declines notched by regional heavyweight, China, proved too much of a drag. Hong Kong stocks were not spared. Support from the region’s other major markets of Australia and Japan were scant this time round as the resurgence of infections in the region hit sentiment.

India’s stocks, however, bucked the regional trend to rise by over 8%. A steady dip in Covid-19 cases rising vaccination rates and relaxation of curbs boosted sentiment on Indian stocks. The pandemic, which have underscored the importance of homes amid the remote working trend, leading to a rise in the demand for apartments, as buyers hunted for upgrades. Favourable regulations, such as RERA and the Model Tenancy Act, and the lowest home loan interest rates in years as well as stamp duty reductions in certain states also fueled a rally for the country’s realty stocks.

REITs

Asia Pacific REITs rose in July, with the GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index building on its rally to record a ninth consecutive monthly rise; the benchmark rose above its January peak last year for the second month running. As expected, the resurgence in infections has boosted the Industrial sector to register another strong month while Retail made up the negative end of the spectrum. Regionally, industrial and logistics REITs are outperformers as investors continue to pursue a flight-to-safety trend.

Across markets, gains were registered by most of the regional heavyweights, with Singapore leading the pack. Rapidly increasing vaccinations rates on the island have provided visibility to the government’s plans to gradually open its economy. However, Australian REITs declined as the renewed lockdown in several cities snapped a four-month winning streak for the country.

Meanwhile, Filinvest REIT Corp is set to become the third REIT to list in the Philippines, having set the final subscription price for its IPO at PHP7.00 per share. The stock is slated to debut on the Philippine Stock Exchange by mid-August. The region continues to boast an impressive pipeline of potential REIT listings, with 8-10 expected for the rest of the year.

Outlook

As base effects wane, rising caseloads across several countries in the Asia Pacific have dimmed the outlook for the regional economy. However, REITs have continued to remain resilient, backstopped by the Industrial sector as well as markets that have progressively clocked higher vaccination rates which will make the easing of restrictions more tenable. With long-dated treasury yields at their lowest since February, markets are now more inclined to believe that the specter of surging inflation will be less likely for now. The state of play has clearly shifted to policy risks in China as well as the threat from the fast-moving Delta variant. With central banks and the Fed likely to stick with its easy monetary policies due to a choppy recovery, there will invariably be sustained interest in dividend-rich stocks. As long as the pandemic continues to linger, investors will also continue to seek out the structural plays of the industrial and logistics sectors.

Overview

Stock markets dived in mid-June when the US Fed indicated possible quantitative tightening and a potential interest rate hike by 2023, as investors remained jittery of rising inflationary pressures and its implications on monetary policies. The region’s equity market also fell on concerns amid the strengthening greenback. Further weakness was also evident as the resurgence of outbreaks, which had governments reviving restrictions across several economies, threatened to derail recovery momentum in the region. However, property stocks across the region largely bucked the trend, underpinned by accommodative monetary conditions and sustained interest in dividend-rich stocks amid a yield-starved environment.

Listed Real Estate

Despite outperforming the region’s equities, June was another tepid month for non-REIT real estate stocks in the region with the wider GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate Composite barely staying in positive territory. In a repeat of May, gains in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan just managed to offset caution in the other regional heavyweights of China and Singapore. China’s real estate stocks underperformed for a third month running as policy overhang continued to plague sentiment, with policymakers moving to restrict credit growth and stepped up interventions in markets.

Hong Kong’s shares continued to maintain its positive run, driven by a notable pickup in property sales and prices as well as optimism surrounding it e-voucher scheme, which is designed to boost local consumption. Blackstone’s HK$23.7 billion bid for HKSE-listed Soho China also signaled sustained investor interest. Stocks in India also gained as the country’s central bank continued to maintain  interest rates at record lows.

REITs

The GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index finished strongly in June, outperforming regional equities both in June and for the second quarter. While renewed infection surges could have spurred interest in safe-haven Industrial REITs, the gains were broad based with even the risk-on sectors registering gains. A weakened Japanese yen during the period also spurred investments into J-REITs. Separately, the prospects of an eventual re-opening of its economy and borders supported the performance of Hong Kong REITs.

China’s first batch of REITs made a rousing stock market debut  registering initial gains, as the nine listed REITs – five in Shanghai and four in Shenzhen – drew interest from Chinese retail investors. The nine REITs reportedly raised over RMB30 billion with its retail tranches 10-times over subscribed. For now, C-REITs are backed only by infrastructure assets and offered as units in a fund. But the trial will be closely watched – the success of which could eventually seed measures for further liberalization.

Meanwhile, the Philippine REIT pipeline remains on track. Hot on the heels of Filinvest’s planned third quarter debut of its REIT, the country’s largest office landlord – Megaworld – is looking to unveil the nation’s largest offering that is seeking to raise as much as PHP27.3 billion. Data centre giant, Digital Realty Trust, is also considering an offering in Singapore that could raise up to US$400 million which could come as early as this year. The share sale would tap growing investor interest in data centres. The region’s expanding REIT universe is continuing apace with up to 10 new listings that could occur in the second half of the year.

Outlook

While inflationary pressures will continue to introduce volatility, monetary conditions are expected to remain loose as central banks remain cognizant that an economic recovery remains far from certain. Investors are also choosing to remain focused on the longer term. Countries in the region are now training their sights on increasing vaccination rates, raising the prospects of an accelerated re-opening of its economies. Institutional interests in the region’s commercial real estate have continued to be robust, as investors, awakened by prospects of more favourable entry prices especially in gateway markets, chase deals. The region’s REITs, in the first six months of the year, have returned close to 9.0% to overtake equities, indicating a gradual reversion to long-run fundamentals.

概览

       亚太股市5月份再度遇冷，由于物价上涨可能加剧通胀，投资者仍然担心持续上升的通胀压力。同时，亚太许多国家，包括印度、日本，和部分东南亚国家，也面临着新一轮的疫情威胁。感染人数在之前防疫工作颇为成功的新加坡、台湾和越南激增，这也让投资者感到不安。亚太地区疫苗普及速度落后于全球，对疫情的担忧将导致延迟放松边境管制，从而推迟经济复苏。在各种因素的影响下，亚太地产股表现逊于亚太股票和债券指数。

亚太上市房地产公司股票

        GPR/APREA上市房地产综合指数勉强维持在正值，澳大利亚、香港、日本略有盈利，勉强抵消中国和新加坡权重股的跌幅。继一场在北京召开的会议后，中国地产股开始下跌。会议考虑通过征收房产税，以遏制房地产投机行为，因此打击了市场信心。

        然而，由于投资者买入升值强劲的人民币，加上美联储承诺的货币宽松政策，香港股票连续两个月收高。尽管印度新冠感染病例位居全球首位，但地产公司Indiabulls和大使馆集团的合并直接推动了印度股票本月斩获最高回报率。监管部门批准了这项并购，这也造就了又一家印度最大的上市房地产公司之一。

亚太REITs

      5月，GPR/APREA综合REIT指数创纪录地继续保持增长。然而，亚太大部分REIT市场表现都不如股票。唯独香港例外，回报率最高达3%以上。从各个版块来看，主要地产板块收益表现也较为平淡。新加坡REITs也位于地区内拖后腿的行列，因为政府加强了管制，以限制疫情感染人数的增加。尽管如此，新加坡工业REITs管理资产继续扩大规模，今年已公布超50亿新元的重大收购。

       亚太REIT市场也迎来了另一个重大发展机遇。众人期待已久的中国公募REIT市场已拉开帷幕，此前监管部门已批准了第一批REITs，包含九只股票，预计将为基础设施项目筹集300亿人民币。然而，与其他市场不同，中国REITs目前只以基础设施为支撑。符合条件的底层资产不包括商业地产，商场或办公楼等。同时，顺丰REIT成功在香港交易所上市，成为香港第一支以物流为主的REIT。

        亚太地区的REITs并购活动也更加活跃。除了目前日本境内对景顺日本办公REIT的争夺外，澳洲证交所上市的澳大利亚联合医疗地产信托也成为了加拿大西北医疗地产信托和新加坡政府投资公司新加坡主权财富基金的竞相收购目标。

前景展望

        资源价格和航运成本的上涨可能使政策性加息比预期来得更早，而通胀问题仍将是投资者的主要关注点。不过，在美联储评论说基于基数效应的价格飙升是暂时性的后，美国国债收益率在5月份有所回落。投资者认为在收益率达到顶峰，债券买入量减少之前，美联储还能容忍更高的价格。在经济持续复苏的背景下，亚太REITs将继续受益于持续的低息环境，以及机构投资者对房地产的强劲需求。

Overview

Asia Pacific stock markets endured another tepid month in May as investors remained focused on rising inflationary pressures, as a surge in commodity prices threatens to drive up inflation. The region also contended with a fresh wave of Covid-19 infections across several countries including India, Japan and parts of Southeast Asia. A spike in caseloads in Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam, which had the most success in curbing infection levels, also unnerved investors. Vaccine rollouts, at rates lagging those worldwide are compounding concerns that protracted border controls will delay an economic recovery. Property stocks across the region reacted by underperforming both the region’s equity and bond indices.

Listed Real Estate

The GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate Composite barely remained in positive territory, with marginal gains in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan just managing to offset declines in the other regional heavyweights of China and Singapore. China real estate stocks slipped, after a meeting held in Beijing contemplated a property tax to rein in rampant speculation in the housing market dragged on sentiment.

However, Hong Kong shares closed higher for a second month in a row as investors bought into the strong Chinese currency and the US Federal Reserve’s commitment towards monetary accommodation. Despite grappling with the world’s highest infection caseload, India stocks scored the highest returns as the merger of Indiabulls Real Estate and Embassy Group gained momentum. Regulatory pathways cleared for the merger will create one of India’s largest listed real estate companies.

REITs

The GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index held on to record another positive month in May. However, most REIT markets in the Asia Pacific underperformed equities. Hong Kong was the exception, clocking the highest returns at just over 3%. Sector-wise, gains were also tepid across the main property segments. S-REITs were among the underperformers in the region, as the country heightened restrictions over the increase in infections. Nonetheless, industrial S-REITs continue to increase their assets under management, with significant acquisitions valued at over S$5 billion announced this year.

A significant development also greeted REIT markets in the region. China’s long-awaited public REITs market kicked off, after regulators approved the first batch of its REITs, comprising nine stocks that will raise an estimated RMB30 billion for infrastructure projects. However,  unlike other markets, Chinese REITs are only backed by infrastructure. For now, eligible underlying assets do not include commercial properties such as shopping malls or offices. Meanwhile, Hong Kong saw its first logistics-focused REIT list, after SF REIT successfully debuted on the territory’s stock exchange.

The region is also experiencing heightened M&A activity in the REIT space. In addition to the current tussle for Invesco Office J-REIT in Japan, ASX-listed Australian Unity Healthcare Property Trust has also been the target of a takeover bid by Canada’s NorthWest Healthcare Properties REIT and Singapore sovereign wealth fund, GIC.

Outlook

As rising resource prices and escalating shipping costs heighten the possibility of an earlier-than-expected policy rate hike, inflation will continue to be a dominant theme for investors. However, treasury yields have retreated in May, after the Fed commented that such price spikes, that stem from base effects, will be transitory. Investors are buying into the view that the Fed will tolerate higher prices before hiking rates and tapering bond purchases. Amid the ongoing economic recovery, Asia Pacific REITs will continue to benefit from the sustained low interest rate environment and strong demand for real estate investments among institutional buyers.

概览

再通胀交易在第一季度实现快速增长后，而今却由于美国失业救济申请人数意外激增，从而陷入停滞。新一波的疫情浪潮，尤其是在亚洲，也促使投资者转向避险资产，导致4月份10年期国债收益率短暂跌至一个多月来的最低点。美联储在本月底的定期会议上决定维持利率不变。尽管经济正在复苏，美联储仍然重申在未来短期内，将继续推行高度宽松的货币政策。亚太股票市场反应乐观，继上月下跌后，摩根士丹利亚太股价指数已重回正值。

亚太上市房地产公司股票

尽管GPR/APREA上市房地产综合指数仍处于正值，但由于中国和日本权重股的下跌，综合指数涨幅并不显著。其中，中国股市跌幅最大，由于数据显示房产价格仍在持续上涨，因此，投资者担忧监管将施加更大的压力。中国许多城市3月新房房价增速都达到了过去7个月来的最高点。距离奥运会只剩三个月，日本宣布进入第三轮紧急状态，以抑制疫情发展，而这也打击了日本国内的市场信心。

亚太REITs

大部分亚太市场表现良好，GPR/APREA综合房地产投资信托指数延续了2月以来的涨势，本月月底收高。亚太REITs连续第二个月跑赢股票。

其中，日本REITs引领涨幅，保持2020年11月以来的连胜势头，因为机构对日本房地产资产的兴趣增加，从而推动了REITs的表现。喜达屋资本拟计划收购日本景顺资产管理公司的REIT，初始报价即溢价超10%。预期未来报价将上涨，投资者竞相抬价抢购。此外，日本央行承诺每年继续拨出高达1800亿日元的资金购买日本REITs。低利率和对经济复苏的预期也给澳大利亚市场带来了信心，收益上涨。

同时，巴基斯坦证券与交易委员会，即该国的市场监管机构，正在逐步放松对REIT的监管，取消对提供竣工证明文件的强制性要求，该要求被许多投资者认为阻碍了REIT的发展。继2015年上市首支REIT后，这个南亚国家还未推出任何新的REITs。

亚太REITs行业正处于持续扩张中。中国最大的快递供应商，顺丰控股有限公司，计划将三个总价值61亿港币的物流中心纳入到一个在香港上市的离岸REIT中。顺丰已在4月向香港交易所提供了顺丰REIT的上市申请。地产开发商和管理公司丰树投资也计划在新加坡上市学生住房类REIT，预计能筹资约10亿新元。

前景展望

距离疫情爆发已一年有余，亚太REITs已逆转颓势，超过了去年1月份疫情爆发前的最高点。然而，在收益方面仍然不如亚太股票。

至于未来，疫情再度爆发的压力与通胀都为市场前景蒙上了阴影。尽管如此，后疫情时代的经济复苏仍将逐步提速，这将对亚太REITs带来积极影响。在当前的低利率环境下，机构投资者对房产资产的兴趣不减，而在他们的带动下，商业房地产市场也更加活跃，预计这也将有利于REITs的估值。

Overview

After rising rapidly in the first quarter of the year, the reflation trade hit a pause amid an unexpected rise in new claims for unemployment benefits in the US. Renewed waves of Covid infection caseloads, particularly in Asia, also prompted a flight to safety with yields on 10-year Treasuries briefly hitting their lowest in over a month during April. The Fed, in a scheduled meeting at the end of the month, left rates unchanged. Despite a recovering economy, it reiterated that highly accommodative monetary policy will continue for the foreseeable future. Stock markets in the region reacted optimistically, with MSCI’s regional equity gauge back in positive territory after dipping in the previous month.

Listed Real Estate

While the GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate Composite remained in positive territory, gains were largely modest, stymied by declines in regional heavyweights – China and Japan. China stocks fell the most, as investors remained wary of regulatory pressures following data that showed sustained property price increases. New home prices in March rose at the fastest pace in seven months, with increases noted in more cities. A third state of emergency declared in Japan, in a gambit to counter infection cases three months ahead of the Olympics, hurt sentiment in the country.

REITs

Supported by positive performances in most markets, the GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index ended the month higher, sustaining a run from February. The region’s REITs outperformed equities for the second month in a row.

J-REITs led the region, maintaining a winning streak from November 2020, as increased institutional interest in Japan’s real estate assets drove performance. Starwood Capital tabled a proposal to acquire Invesco Office J-REIT, with an initial offer price that valued the REIT at a premium of over 10%. Anticipating subsequent improved offers,  the stock was quickly bid up by investors. Additionally, the BoJ maintained a pledge to buy J-REITS at an annual pace of up to ¥180 billion. In Australia, positive sentiment supported by low-interest rates and expectations of an economic recovery, fueled gains.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s markets regulator Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan, is working on easing REIT regulations, removing the need for a mandatory building completion certificate which many investors viewed as a hurdle. The South Asian country has not seen any REITs after its only listing debuted in 2015.

The region’s REIT universe continued to expand. S.F. Holding, China’s largest listed courier provider, plans to inject three logistics centres worth HK$6.1 billion into an offshore REIT to be listed in Hong Kong. A listing application for SF Real Estate Investment Trust was submitted to Hong Kong’s bourse operator in April. Mapletree Investments, a property developer and manager, is also exploring listing a student housing REIT in Singapore that could raise about S$1 billion.

Outlook

More than a year since the pandemic erupted, the region’s REITs have retraced its decline to surpass the pre-pandemic high recorded in January last year. However, they continue to lag Asia Pacific equities in returns.

Looking ahead, a flare-up of coronavirus pandemic in the region and sustained inflationary pressures continue to cloud the outlook for markets. Still, the post-pandemic economic recovery will likely gradually gather pace, which should be positive for the region’s REITs. Increased activities in the commercial real estate market, led by institutional investors suggesting continued interest in real estate assets under the current low-interest-rate environment, is expected to provide support to REITs’ valuations.

概览

       全球债券市场2021年开局惨淡，一季度投资者收益率跌至2016年第四季度以来的最低点，同时，美国10年期国债基准收益率上升超80个基点。由于债券利率在三月一路攀升，达一年来最高水平，因此，在疫情爆发前，任何跌势都不会持续太久。收益率飙升主要得益于亚太股票市场投资者对过高估价的担忧。

       从疫情中获益最多的科技股在此次抛售浪潮中首当其冲，尤其是受中国当局在国内的反垄断措施影响。而投资基金Archegos Capital的崩塌也让金融股感到紧张，使得该部门流失数十亿的资金。这也让亚太地产股指数高于总体股票基准。

亚太上市房地产公司股票

        GPR/APREA综合上市房地产指数反弹1.8%，其中，澳大利亚地产股在合订信托的推动下，在亚太地区的增长中处于领先地位。澳大利亚经济在2020年最后一个季度的GDP增长高于预期，随着管制放宽，住宅价格也持续上涨。日本股票的表现也优于大盘，主要得益于其最大的开发商，以及防疫措施放宽对市场信心的提升。同时，中国股市的涨幅受到限制，投资者预计政策支持力度将减小，有迹象显示中国经济复苏正在进一步提速。

       继合并其办公和零售REITs后，凯德集团紧接着又宣布一项企业重组计划，将其开发部门私有化，并将其投资管理部门独立为专门的基金管理和创收业务。作为一家独立上市的公司，凯德投资管理将成为亚洲资产管理规模最大的房地产投资管理公司，以及全球第三大上市房地产投资管理公司，仅次于布鲁克菲尔德资产管理与百仕通。

亚太REITs

       亚太REITs三月份上涨1.9%，地区内主要市场普遍上行。除了澳大利亚多元化和工业信托收益率表现强劲外，日本REITs也凭借其住宅REITs表现优异，使得该版块在3月份创下亚太地区最高回报率。由于缺乏推动收益上涨的因素，零售和酒店业失去增长势头。

        同时，在房地产开发商Filinvest向菲律宾证券交易所有关部门登记募股后，不到一年时间内，菲律宾已准备推出其第三支REIT。该REIT主要由Filinvest统筹发展的某商业区业务外包流程办公资产组成，如果允许超额配售，那么此次发行预计能筹集149亿比索。

        自去年年底以来，投资逐渐恢复活力，新加坡上市REITs仍在积极寻找投资跨境资产的机会，并于今年第一季度达成25亿美元的交易量，收购总额有望赶超去年。值得注意的是，丰树物流信托首次进军印度，以大约8440万新元的价格收购了位于普纳的两家仓库。腾飞REIT则是最大的跨境投资者，贡献超17亿美元，其中包括腾飞REIT在欧洲收购的首个数据中心。

前景展望

       在疫情爆发一年后，亚太地产股已从三月低潮中强势反弹。尽管亚太REITs表现显著优于大盘房地产指数，为投资者带来接近38%的回报率，但仍然落后于亚太股市。

       由于基数效应放大通胀预期，短期内经济前景仍存在不确定性。再加上由于变异病毒导致病例数量激增，无疑也为未来增添了更多的不确定性。供应短缺和大宗商品价格上涨预示着持续但不平衡，甚至是混乱的经济复苏局面，投资者将继续面对债券收益率上升和政策收紧带来的影响。

         然而，亚太REITs所提供的收益率差仍然可观，在一些发达市场通常能接近200个基点，甚至更高。随着经济活动常态化，持续的通货再膨胀贸易或与全球经济复苏节奏保持一致。REITs无疑将得益于这一背景，进一步上涨。如果在经济有序回升的前提下，通胀压力卷土重来，那么不可避免地需要权衡二者间的利弊。

Overview

Global bond markets endured a harrowing start to 2021, ending one of the worst quarters for investors since the last quarter of 2016 as the benchmark yield on 10-year Treasuries rose by over 80 bps. Any pullback was short-lived as bond yields resumed their climb through March to hit their highest in over a year, before the pandemic struck. The surge in yields weighed on the region’s equity markets, as investors turn skittish on lofty valuations.

Tech stocks which have benefitted most as pandemic plays bore the brunt of the sell off, not least helped by a crackdown on anti-trust behavior by Chinese authorities in its own backyard. Financial stocks were also rattled by the collapse of investment fund Archegos Capital, leaving the sector exposed to losses in billions. This lifted the region’s property stocks above the broad equity benchmark.

Listed Real Estate

The GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate Composite returned 1.8% with Australian property counters leading the region, powered by its stapled trusts. The Australian economy had posted better-than-expected GDP growth in the last quarter of 2020, as restrictions eased, with sustained gains in residential prices. Japanese stocks also outperformed on the back of their largest developers, with the lifting of emergency measures a sentiment booster. Meanwhile, gains were capped in China, as investors anticipated policy support to be scaled back with signs that the recovery is further gaining ground.

Hot on the heels after the merger of its office and retail REITs, CapitaLand announced a corporate restructure to take private its development arm private and carve out its investment management arm as a pure-play fund-management and fee-income business. The separately listed entity, CapitaLand Investment Management, will rank as the biggest real estate investment manager in Asia in terms of AUM, and the third-biggest listed globally – behind Brookfield Asset Management and Blackstone.

REITs

Asia Pacific REITs climbed 1.9% in March with broad-based gains across the region’s major markets. In addition to the strong returns of Australia’s diversified and industrial trusts, J-REITs also delivered on the strength of their Residential REITs, which powered the sector to record the region’s highest return in March. With a lack of catalysts to fuel further gains, Retail and Hospitality lost momentum.

Meanwhile, the Philippines is on track to debut its third REIT in under a year, after developer Filinvest registered its offering with the country’s exchange authorities. Comprising mostly of BPO office assets in a business district it master-developed, the offering is expected to raise PHP14.9 billion, if the over allotment option is exercised.

With investment activity roaring back to life late last year, Singapore-listed REITs continued to maintain their momentum in the hunt for cross border assets. Total acquisitions made by the sector is on track to surpass last year’s, following US$2.5 billion deals struck in the first quarter. Notably, Mapletree Logistics Trust made its maiden foray into India, acquiring two warehouses in the city of Pune for approximately S$84.4m. Ascendas REIT was the biggest spender, investing over US$1.7 billion, including the REIT’s first data centre acquisitions in Europe.

Outlook

One year since the pandemic erupted, the region’s property stocks have bounced back strongly from their March lows. While the region’s REITs have notably outpaced the wider real estate index, registering close to 38% returns for investors, they continue to lag Asia Pacific equities.

The near-term outlook will remain volatile, as base effects amplify inflationary expectations.  Additionally, the recent surge in caseloads from new virus variants will no doubt contribute to uncertainty ahead. With the spectre of supply shortages and rising commodity prices signaling a sustained, albeit uneven and at times messy, economic recovery, investors will continue to grapple with the implications of higher bond yields as well as looming policy tightening.

Still, spreads offered by the region’s REITs remain decent, typically close to 200 bps and higher in some developed markets. As economic activity normalizes, the ongoing reflation trade can be consistent with a synchronous global recovery. REITs will undoubtedly benefit from this backdrop to further deliver on price gains. The return of inflationary pressures, if orderly, being the inevitable trade off.