Knowledge Hub

Global Economy

• Global growth estimated to decline by 3.5% in 2020 but expected to rise by 5.5% in 2021
• Advanced economies likely to grow by 4.3% in 2021 on the back of the early rollout of vaccines
• Emerging economies are expected to grow by 6.3% in 2021 on the back of a contracted base

Indian Economy 

• India’s GDP growth for FY21 is estimated to decline by 7.7%, hit by the global pandemic and the lockdown
• Private consumption estimated to contract by 9.5% in FY21 based on income loss, mobility restrictions, and supply constraints
• Government consumption estimated to rise by 5.8% due to increased expenditure as part of pandemic relief packages.
• Investment estimated to decline by 14.5% due to economic uncertainty and delay in implementation of capital projects

Outlook 

• Consumption indicators, including FMCG, auto sales, and GST collection indicate a faster demand recovery in Q3
• Continued momentum post-pandemic in health, pharma, telecom, and technology (e-commerce, fintech, ed-tech, etc.) owing to a significant shift in consumption patterns
• The pandemic has led to a preference for digital services and adoption of digitalisation in many companies
• GDP is estimated to grow at 11% in FY22 owing to robust growth in consumption and investment and lower base effect

The pandemic has induced behavioural changes amongst consumers that are likely to stay permanent. This has hit the physical retail and F&B sectors hardest and the industry has to be quick to adapt to this new reality in order to nurture the sector back to recovery, albeit in an evolved form.

Footfall numbers will be hard-pressed to return to pre-COVID levels so long as the need to social distance is enforced. The takeaway channel is therefore vital. With incomes falling and unemployment rising, food delivery companies are seeing a decline in activity from the peaks witnessed in the months of April and May. Parents are telling their children now not to order frivolously. Footfall ebbs and flows with some days seeing much greater activity than others (same as our office – some days we have 30% of the workers back while for most of the time, it’s just 15% to 20%). It is difficult to predict the daily flow these days. Whenever helicopter money is disbursed by the government, the crowd emerges in the suburbs. But give it about 10 days and the patronage falls back to pre-payout levels.

The points highlighted above are summarised in the following heatmaps. Table 1A and 1B show the heatmap of revenues by broad tenant types in CBD and Suburban locations. These are the findings obtained after spending weeks soliciting feedback from various retail and F&B operators plus plying the grounds to weed off the weekend-weekday effects.

WHEN CULTURAL VALUE BECOMES COMMERCIAL VALUE AND TRANSFORMS INTO INVESTMENT GAINS.

• The total shophouse transaction value amounted to S$880.7 million in 2020, riding out the pandemic with only a slight 3.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline when compared to the S$915.9 million recorded in 2019, as sales in Q4 2020 rebounded to surpass pre-pandemic levels. Gross sales value in the quarter alone accounted for almost half of 2020 shophouse sales value at S$431.8 million.
• The shophouse sales volume was also greater in 2020 compared to the previous year, with 138 transactions lodged as compared to 123 in 2019 (Exhibit 1). The majority (88.4%) sold were freehold shophouses. Q4 2020 saw a total of 51 shophouse transactions, 19 more than in Q3 when sales started to recover.
• Aided by lower costs of borrowing and high liquidity in the market, pent-up demand from different pools of buyers such as first-time investors as well as family offices and corporates contributed to the overall recovery of the shophouse market, especially towards the last quarter of the year. Price expectations between buyers and sellers were realistically met, leading to the materialisation of sales.

Opportunities remain in a challenging market

Despite the year starting with the pandemic and the resulting economic shock, China rebounded quickly and was one of the few countries that recorded economic expansion for 2020. As we look forward to 2021, many aspects of life, work and the economy have fundamentally changed with the significant advances and greater adoption of digital technologies. Nevertheless, we also start where we left off before COVID-19, tackling bigger structural issues that persist such as debt levels, climate challenges and economic stability.

In the property market, 2021 presents challenges and opportunities. The residential sales sector is faced with tighter regulations to deleverage the sector, which will slow growth and restrain demand. However, those with capital will continue to invest as to store, preserve and grow wealth. Travel restrictions have limited secondments and returning expat numbers, but operators have been swift to tailor services and facilities to the growing local client base, which is realizing the advantages of leasing. The commercial sector is confronted with excess supply, though landlords that can create a nurturing creative environment and greater flexibility for tenants will retain market share. Online platforms continue to take a larger share of retail sales, though a thirst for unique experiences and social interaction ensures bricks and mortar locations remain a key touchpoint between brands and consumers. 

The logistics sector’s growth is throttled by regulations and strict land permits, but demand from 3PLs and ecommerce platforms remains voracious. Investment has shied away from the traditional commercial sectors for higher growth opportunities in the logistics and data centre markets, though, as they pull back and vendors feel greater pressure from financing restrictions, opportunities are beginning to emerge, and activity levels are expected to start to pick back up. 

寻路向前

尽管2020年初爆发疫情带来巨大冲击，但中国经济迅速反弹，成为全年经济同比增长的少数几个国家之一。伴随数字技术的进步和推广，我们的生活、工作和经济活动都在发生变化。此外也需积极应对债务、气候、经济稳定等长期存在的结构性挑战。

2021年的房地产市场挑战和机遇并存。住宅销售市场正面临监管加码，短期市场需求或将因此受限，但市场中长期价值前景并未改变，仍是财富保值及增值的重要去向。高端租赁市场持续演进，旅行限制影响外籍租客需求，但本地租客需求上升、日趋多样，为业主带来调整机会。写字楼市场存在局部供应放量，而能为租户创造创意环境和灵活空间的业主将占据优势。零售商纷纷发力电商平台，但顾客对独特体验和社交互动的诉求说明，实体店依然是品牌和消费者沟通的重要渠道。

物流行业的增长受到政策和土地许可的限制，但来自第三方物流公司和电子商务平台的需求有增无减。物流和数据中心的高增长潜力令一些投资者从传统物业领域转向利基资产。但随着竞争减少及部分业主面临融资压力，传统资产的机会也将再次出现，投资活跃度有望因此回升。

Hong Kong’s investment momentum turned sluggish in 2020, with the total Hong Kong’s investment momentum turned sluggish in 2020, with the total transaction volume dropping 47%YOY to HKD 60.1 billion (USD 7.7 billion), a record low over the last decade.

Most investors have been taking a wait-and-see approach throughout 2020, given the market was still shadowed by different layers of uncertainty. Meanwhile, the global outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent travel restrictions also likely deterred some site visits and investment decisions, especially for those investors with decision-makers abroad, making local and mainland capital the key buyers.

Whilst the property market in Hong Kong has been undergoing a correction across most commercial sectors, the gradual increase in yields in the last two years prompted investors to look for distressed assets or properties with bigger discounts, despite their limited availability. The bid-ask dislocation remained the key hurdle for investment transactions over the last 12months.