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Market turnaround: Recovery could deliver 50% uplift in global investment in 2021

Colliers anticipates a 50% surge in investment activity in the 2nd half of 2021 as global real estate markets rebound

With investors sitting on substantial amounts of dry powder and looking to make up for lost ground, Colliers expects total investment activity to increase by up to 50% in 2021. Our Global Investor survey results highlight that 98% of investors across all regions aim to expand their portfolios this year, with around 60% looking to expand by more than 10%, including 23% who want to expand by 20% or more.

Acquisitions to pick up pace in Q2 as market challenges ease

The roll out of COVID-19 vaccines will have a very positive impact on markets and global geo-political stability, courtesy of a Brexit trade deal and a U.S. election result, provide much needed certainty. These factors will help drive market growth in 2021. Although a large proportion of investors are looking to get out of the blocks early and identify acquisitions in Q1, Colliers experts believe the rebound in activity will gain strength from Q2 onwards due to lingering uncertainty over travel in the first quarter.

Tier-1 city offices remain the asset of choice

Reports of the ‘death of the office’ appear premature, with offices remaining the primary asset target globally. The scale and liquidity of the office sector in major commercial hubs like New York, London and Sydney allows investors to readily transact, supporting core, core-plus and value-add strategies. Re-positioning office assets to meet health, sustainability and technical benchmarks is a clear investor priority, delivering value for the long term.

Largely muted cap rates across Asia Pacific.

Uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 continued to put potential transaction activity on standby mode in Q42020. We saw largely muted cap rate fluctuations across the region.

Key Highlights in Q4 2020:

  • In India, notable exceptions included dips in industrial cap rates as the region-wide proliferation of e-commerce for both F&B and retailing generates sustained demand for warehousing and logistics facilities.
  • Mumbai’s retail cap rates edged upward as drops in rental and vacancies exert downward pressure on asset values.
  • Elsewhere in Manila, we witnessed a drop in rental values which are yet to be reflected on asset values.
  • In Australia’soffice sector, we expect modern assets with long term leases to continue showing resilience in value as investors focus more on low-risk buying opportunities.
  • While the underlying appetite for office assets in Australia remains healthy, transaction volumes is temporarily being affected by international travel restrictions which has impeded upon site visits. Further, limitations brought about by the foreign investment approval process has posed uncertainties on inbound capital flows. However, recent inroads to policies have been made which appear optimistic.

Overall, we believe that varying expectations on economic outlook has translated into mismatch between buyers’ and sellers’ price expectations.

The gradual restoration of activity will drive capital back to office, retail and industrial sectors, in turn affecting their cap rates later in 2021.

The retail sales index (RSI) (excluding motor vehicles in chained volume terms) fell by a slight 2.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 98.0 in November 2020. Retail sales performance improved in the month, led by prominent large-scale sales events such as 11.11 and Black Friday on digital platforms. Prior to these events, many brick-and-mortar stores also started going virtual with establishments such as Isetan and Metro selling their products on platforms like Lazada, and BHG setting up their own shopping site. This resulted in increased online sales in November, which accounted for about 16.7% (excluding motor vehicles), or some S$516.4 million of the total retail sales amounting to S$3.1 billion. Of these, majority of the retail trade mainly comprised transactions of Computer and Telecommunications Equipment, Furniture and Household Equipment, and Supermarkets and Hypermarkets.

From Q4 2020 to 2024, some 53.8 million sq ft gross floor area (GFA) of industrial space is slated to be completed. Of these, about 43.2% of the upcoming supply is expected to be completed in 2021, with a significant proportion being multiple-user and single-user factory spaces. Coupled with the phased withdrawal of government fiscal support for businesses, multipleuser factory prices and rents are likely to come under pressure, falling by not more than 5% in 2021 while single-user factories could fare slightly better.

  • The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly accelerated a number of secular shifts that were already starting to have fundamental impacts on the role real estate plays in the economy as well as in investment portfolios.
  • Such disruption increases the need for evolving data and analytics to understand the rapidly changing drivers of performance and risk consistently across all types of real estate investments.
  • Despite a long list of difficult questions facing the asset class, climate change and its impact on risk and return are more important than ever for real estate investors.

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HEALTHY TRANSACTION VOLUME AND MODERATE PRICE INCREASE IN A PANDEMIC YEAR

  • Prices of non-landed private residential properties (excluding Executive Condominiums (ECs)) in Q4 2020** saw the greatest quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) increase of 3.2% for 2020, bringing the full-year increase to 2.7% despite the economic turbulence.
  • In 2020*, non-landed private residential sales volume (excluding ECs) totalled 17,830 units, 4.7% more than in 2019 and a surprisingly good showing in a year of crisis. Strong support from needs-based buyers and eligible HDB upgraders combined to form healthy demand, bolstering sentiment despite economic uncertainty and restrictions on the re-issuance of OTPs.
  • There were 9,497 transactions in the primary market accounting for some 53.3% of total sales in 2020*, as developers pushed out new launches amid encouraging sales after Singapore exited the circuit breaker. While the secondary market was slower to regain momentum and trailed with 8,333 sales, sales caught up to some extent with some 2,904 units transacted in Q4* and 2,922 in Q3, more than three times the 760 units in Q2 2020 (Exhibit 1). The practicality of resale units due to its price discount, when compared to new sale units, and the greater choices available will continue to encourage sales.

LEASE terms in Singapore tend to be pro-landlord. If you are not renting a large area, your bargaining power may be limited and you should focus on aspects that are important to you. In finding a suitable property, bear in mind that different properties are approved for different uses. If you require office premises, it is not permissible to rent industrial premises for office use.

These days, it is common to find co-working space or serviced offices. Technically, the legal arrangement for use of such spaces is considered a licence rather than a lease as no exclusive possession of the premises is provided to the user.

When you have found premises that you wish to rent, a title search should be conducted on the property to verify the ownership and right of the landlord to lease the property. If the property is held by the landlord under a lease, the lease should be extracted to check whether the head lessor’s consent is required for subletting. If the property is subject to mortgage, the landlord should be requested to provide evidence of the bank’s consent as mortgages normally contain a restriction against subletting. If the bank’s consent is not obtained, and the bank takes possession of the property, the bank would not be bound by a tenancy entered into after the mortgage which the bank has not consented to.

For new buildings where the temporary occupation permit has not been issued, the commencement date of the lease would normally be subject to change. If you do not have any leeway for staying on in your existing premises, consider the risk of delay carefully before entering into such tenancies. On taking possession, have a joint inspection with the landlord to note down defects with photographic record and have both parties acknowledge the state and condition to avoid disputes at the time of return of the premises.

Where the premises are to be occupied by more than one company within the group, decide which entity is to be the tenant. Rent would normally be subject to Goods and Services Tax (GST) so the tenant entity should be GST-registered, if practicable. As most tenancies would contain a restriction against subletting or sharing of premises, the landlord’s consent should be obtained upfront for such subletting or sharing of premises within the group.

Besides rent, commercial landlords often charge a service charge for the maintenance of the building. For retail premises, there may also be advertising and promotion contributions. These amounts are subject to change. Landlords often pass some other charges such as utilities charges, and increase in property tax to the tenant. Many landlords pass their legal cost or administrative charges for preparation of the lease to the tenant. If the tenant requires amendments to the landlord’s standard lease format, there may also be additional legal costs for the amendments. Stamp duty on the tenancy is invariably borne by the tenant.

The amount of security deposit to be provided by the tenant would normally be based on the tenant’s paid-up capital. Where the tenant’s paid-up capital is low, the landlord would usually require a higher security deposit. The security deposit can be paid by cash or where the landlord agrees, by bank guarantee. A benefit of providing the security deposit by bank guarantee is that it is protected against insolvency of the landlord.

Tenants may wish to request the landlord for incentives to enter into the tenancy such as rent-free period for fitting out the premises and, if the landlord would agree, during the lease term. In the event that the tenant breaks the lease, the tenancy agreement would normally provide that the landlord may claw back the rent-free period granted to the tenant.

Landlords may allot a certain number of car park lots based on area of the premises. Often, these lots are granted on a non-reserved basis at prevailing car park charges. Larger tenants may wish to consider adding favourable clauses which cover naming rights, signage rights, first rights of refusal to purchase or exclusion of competitors in the building.

Read the lease carefully and note your obligations. Normally, renovations would require the landlord’s prior written consent. It is common for commercial landlords to reserve a right to terminate the lease in the event of redevelopment or renovation of the building or part of the building. If you are spending large amounts on renovations, you may wish to try to negotiate out the landlord’s right to terminate for the initial term so that you may recoup your renovation cost spent.

Where the tenant uses group insurance, the insurance clause of the tenancy agreement should be modified to provide for the landlord to be named as additional insured rather than joint insured. The tenant may only want to provide certificate of insurance, rather than the actual policy to the landlord for confidentiality reasons.

Commercial leases also often provide for exclusion of liability of the landlord and for the tenant to indemnify the landlord in various circumstances. Take your own protective measures and ensure that you have adequate insurance protection. Additionally, in view of the COVID-19 event and possible future pandemic, it is advisable to add the “force majeure” provisions; allowing termination if the ambit is sufficiently wide as such provisions are almost invariably omitted from commercial leases.

In the event of non-payment of rent or breach of lease terms by the tenant, the lease would normally provide for a right of re-entry by the landlord. In such an event, the landlord should try to mitigate its loss by seeking another tenant.

If you wish to stay on in the premises after the initial term, you may want to ask for an option to renew. Where rent or terms for renewal lease are to be stipulated by the landlord or agreed between the parties, you may not be able to compel the landlord to grant the renewal lease to you if you do not reach agreement on the renewal terms. For larger tenancies, the landlord may agree to a valuation mechanism for a more objective determination of the rent for the renewal term.

Note your reinstatement obligations on expiry and ensure that you are able to return the premises to the landlord at the expiry of the lease so as to avoid the risk of liability for double rent for delay in return of premises.

It is interesting to note that there is a Fair Tenancy Framework which is being discussion, which is likely to be passed within the next few months and this would certainly affect the bargaining powers of the negotiating parties, particularly restricting the powers of the Landlord.

Five new high-profile retail projects completed in Q4: Wanda Plaza in Yanqing District, Joy Breeze in Daxing District, Beijing Fun Capital Wanda Plaza in Changping District, Beijing Shuangqiao Wanda Plaza, and Beiyuan Huamao Place (West Zone) in Chaoyang District. They added a combined 506,452 sq m of space, bringing total shopping mall supply to 12.6 million sq m, accounting for 87% of the city’s retail stock. The market continued to recover from the impacts of the pandemic in 2H, supported by initiatives from the government, developers and brands. A government-issued shopping voucher campaign, launched in June, together with shopping season promotions, have been key drivers in reviving consumer activity. New store openings rose significantly, led by F&B and fashion sectors, with several fashion brand first stores in the preferred Sanlitun and CBD submarkets. High-end sports brand Descente opened China’s first Descente Blanc flagship store at Takoo Li in Sanlitun, while Kilian launched a Beijing first store at Beijing SKP in the CBD. In Q4 Zara opened the doors to a new Asia flagship store, a four-storey standalone building in Wangfujing submarket of more than 3,500 sq m.

The Beijing office market is set for approximately 3 17 million sq m of new supply in the next three years, of which up to 1 5 million sq m is due in 2021 Under the weight of the supply influx and ongoing global economic headwinds, we expect overall office vacancy to continue to edge up and for rental levels to face downwards pressure However, in the longer term, as the wave of new supply abates and benefits from the expansion and opening up of the services industry and development of the Beijing Free Trade Zone are gradually realized, we expect to see renewed leasing demand in related financial and high tech industries, and further development opportunities for the Beijing office market.