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A Comprehensive Take on Major Transit-Oriented Infrastructure Projects with Key Impact Markets

Bengaluru is one of the major economic growth engines of India. It contributes more than one-third to Karnataka’s Gross State Domestic Product and is a major driver for job creation in the state. Apart from earning the age-old moniker of being India’s IT capital, it is now the start-up capital of India and a leading fintech hub. Owing to the huge economic opportunities, job creation and projected population increase from 11.69 million in 2011 to 16.48 million by 2021, the need to expand and upgrade the Bengaluru Metropolitan Region’s (BMR)’s infrastructure and public services has never been as pronounced as it is now. Particularly, the urban mobility infrastructure.

The ‘Bengaluru Urban Infrastructure Report 2020 –A comprehensive Take on Major Transit Oriented Infrastructure Projects and Key Impact Markets provides an insight into the aforementioned transport infrastructure projects. The report analyses their impact on the real estate market in terms of locations that will see increased real estate traction due to mounting demand. We have looked into the role that regulatory interventions and systematic execution of planned transport infrastructure plays, alongside the organic development of the city. While the debate on urban infrastructure has moved beyond transport and on to other factors that affect the sustainability of the environment and impact air and water, transport infrastructure remains a prominent factor that affects the real estate market.

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Despite experiencing four waves of COVID-19 outbreaks and its economic worse performance on record, Hong Kong is poised for further growth. Given a sharp rebound of GDP by 7.9% in Q1 2021, and a forecast of 3.5-5.5% growth for 2021, the commercial real estate market stands out with a positive outlook while adjusting to some “new normals”

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Customer expectations, advancing technology and a burgeoning build-to-rent sector are encouraging the best residential landlords to boost their “digital kerb appeal”, says Yardi’s Paul Yount.

Yount, Yardi’s industry principal and product manager for RENTCafé, says renters no longer expect to spend their Saturdays pounding the pavement or filling in dozens of rental application forms.

“We know many apartment hunters prefer online interactions, and 14 per cent of today’s apartment renters are willing to sign a lease without even seeing the property in person,” he says.

The explosion of ecommerce in recent years has driven an evolution in customer expectations. If a customer can expect a fast and frictionless experience when they make a purchase online, why wouldn’t they expect the same experience when choosing their next apartment?

“Physical kerb appeal has always been important in real estate. But now digital kerb appeal is more important,” Yount explains.

Virtual tours, a phenomenon already gathering speed before COVID-19, are now the preferred way for renters to select their next apartment, Yount adds. He points to a Yardi survey of RENTCafé users which found nearly a third (31%) preferred self-guided tours or had no preference, pre-COVID.

“Now, most renters would prefer a self-scheduled tour in their next apartment search – in fact 83 per cent of apartment shoppers tell us they’d prefer to take a self-guided tour if one was available.”

Yardi’s research is backed up by the largest survey of apartment residents, undertaken by the National Multifamily Housing Council in the United States. This survey, which got inside the minds of 372,000 apartment residents in 2020, found:

  • 100% would prefer to engage with a mobile app rather than a website
  • 90% want to make an individual apartment selection online and
  • 81% want videos of apartment models and amenities.

The appeal of self-guided tours, powered by Yardi’s technology, is not just about social distancing. Two thirds of renters want to tour a property at their own pace, and just under half want to check out a property after hours.

Does that mean today’s renter prefers a high-tech experience over a high-touch, personalised approach? Yount compares the expectations of today’s renter with that of a grocery shopper.

“Some people like old-school checkouts, others prefer self-checkout, some like kerbside pickups while others opt for delivery services. Today’s consumer wants to do business in a lot of different ways.”

So, what are Yardi’s top three high-tech, high-touch plays to build loyalty and create long-term connections with renters?

Download Yardi’s latest paper to find out.

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  • By April 2021, office-focused listed real estate companies became the worst-performing segment in the MSCI World Core IMI Real Estate Index, on a cumulative basis since January 2020.
  • Office’s relatively poor recent performance upset the pattern of returns — across regions and public and private markets — seen in 2020, when industrial outperformed, retail and hotels lagged and office and residential had middling returns.
  • Private-market data has not shown such a shift in sector-performance rankings but, looking deeper, we can see the performance of office assets has varied by location type and lease structure.

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As China benefits from being “first in and first out” of the COVID-19 pandemic, it has become increasingly attractive to investors both locally and from around the globe. In response, as a joint effort of our Research, Valuation and Capital Markets teams, in late 2020 we conducted an investor intentions and cap rate expectations survey, collecting valuable responses from mainland China’s largest commercial real estate (CRE) investors, both domestic and international.

The survey results revealed strong investor interest in China’s Tier 1 cities – especially in office assets in Beijing and Shanghai, as well as growing interest in business parks. Investor interest in retail assets also remained relatively solid, driven by China’s rapid recovery from the pandemic. Not surprisingly, the majority of survey respondents also demonstrated interest in logistics and data centers in Tier 1 and surrounding satellite cities. Among the major Tier 2 cities, Hangzhou – China’s rising tech city and provincial capital city of Zhejiang, emerged as the top choice, followed by Chengdu.

In terms of cap rate expectations, cap rates for CBD office properties in Beijing and Shanghai will likely remain low in 2021, ranging between 3.9% and 4.6%. In contrast, office cap rates in Shenzhen and Tier 2 cities are expected to rise slightly. For retail investments, cap rates are expected to stay relatively steady in Shanghai, Guangzhou and the major Tier 2 cities, while an uptick in cap rate is likely in Beijing and Shenzhen. In addition, cap rates of business park properties are anticipated to remain stable across all major cities in China, while most respondents expect further compressions in cap rates of logistics facilities and data centers in and around Tier 1 cities.

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– The vacancy rate for Large Multi-Tenant (LMT) logistics facilities in the Greater Tokyo area rose by 0.6 points q-o-q to 1.1% in Q1 2021, marking the first time the vacancy rate has exceeded 1% since reaching 1.1% in Q4 2019. Although the unprecedented surge in demand for facemasks and other daily necessities triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic led to stronger competition for logistics space in 2020, activity now appears to have eased.  That said, overall demand remains stable.

– The LMT vacancy rate in the Greater Osaka area fell to 1.9% in Q1 2021, down 1.8 points q-o-q. This marked the first time the vacancy rate has dropped below 2% since Q2 2016, when it also stood at 1.9%. The fact that rents have risen by 13% over the past two years, combined with increasing uncertainty over future economic performance, has meant that tenants are becoming more cautious, slowing the pace of rent increase.

– The LMT vacancy rate in the Greater Nagoya area fell by 1.7 points q-o-q to 8.6% this quarter. With some 170,000 tsubo of new floor space coming available in 2022, owners are stepping up their promotional campaigns to attract tenants.

– This quarter, CBRE has initiated the publication of LMT indices for the Greater Fukuoka area, where the vacancy rate has remained at 0.0% since Q2 2019. With development of multiple new LMT facilities now underway, properties possessing more user-friendly layouts will command an advantage over the competition.

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  • Industrial GVA was negative at -6.7% Q4 2020.
  • Average super prime industrial rents were up 0.4% across the quarter. Australian super prime rents average $113/sqm
  • Super prime yields have compressed by 57 bps y-o-y resulting in record low yields
  • Land values for 1.6ha lots increased by 2.5% q-o-q averaging $570/sqm while 0.25ha lots increased by 5.4% q-o-q to $719/sqm.
  • Transaction volumes. Transaction volumes above $5m totalled $393m across 18 transactions. This is 78% down on volumes recorded in Q1 2020.
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  • Investment sentiment has improved since the abolition of double stamp duty in November 2020.
  • Property funds accounted for 33% of investment volume in Q1 2021, including half of the ten largest deals.
  • Industrial transactions represented 43% of total investment volume, the highest proportion since Q4 2005.
  • CBRE expects new standard rates for lease modification for industrial redevelopment to boost investment in the sector this year.
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• While there were still companies such as those from the technology sector looking to expand their operations, other tenants are in the process of contemplating ‘rightsizing’ as they adopt remote working practices.

• Leasing activity also came from tenants looking for replacement space as they are being forced to move from older buildings slated for redevelopment later this year. Moreover, due to the construction delays in upcoming new buildings, tenants with expiring leases in the near term may renew their leases or look for alternative space now.

• Sentiment amongst landlords of Grade A offi ces has been bolstered by delays in new supply, more workers returning to offi ces as limits on remote working measures get lifted and a healthy offi ce investment market.

• The overall vacancy rate in Savills basket of CBD Grade A offi ce buildings continued to increase for a fourth straight quarter by 0.3 of a percentage point (ppt) to 7.3% in Q1/2021.

• In Q1/2021, although the URA’s offi ce rental index for the Central Region showed a 3.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) increase, the average monthly rent in Savills basket of CBD Grade A offi ces fell for a fi fth consecutive quarter, albeit at a moderated pace of 1.2% QoQ, to S$9.41 per sq ft. We maintain our -5% YoY rental forecast.

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Key Takeaways

  1. Co-investment is a nifty tool of capital management that delivers efficiencies to both LPs and GPs.
  2. A Category I / II AIF is not permitted to invest more than 25% of investible funds in a single investee company. This restricts the formation of dedicated co-investment vehicles.
  3. The IFSCA issued a circular in late 2020 permitting AIFs in GIFT City to disapply the 25% diversity requirement subject to certain conditions.
  4. More recently, SEBI released a consultation paper on the concept of ‘accredited investors’, which contemplates an enhanced degree of flexibility (including on the diversity requirement) for funds populated solely by AIs.
  5. These new measures are likely to facilitate the proliferation of co-investment activity in India.
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