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3 月 11 日、世界保健機関(WHO)は新型コロナウイルスの感染が「パンデミック(世界的流行)」に該当すると発表し、国から国への感染の広がりの制御が難しい状態にあるとの認識を示しました。感染拡大に伴う国内の各種法律問題に加え、海外に子会社・関係会社を抱える企業からの問い合わせも増えているため、当事務所の海外オフィスと連携して速報ベースで各国の方針や影響拡大状況の概要につきお知らせ致します。なお、本ニュースレターは感染拡大が続く間、不定期に配信していきたいと思いますが、同感染症の拡大状況については日々状況が変化している中、本ニュースレターの内容がその後変更・更新されている可能性については十分ご留意の上参照ください。本ニュースレターの内容は、特段記載のない限り、2020 年 3 月 10 日夜時点で判明している情報に基づいています。

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The rapid economic growth of Asia-Pacific has had wide ranging consequences; supply chains have grown to exploit comparative advantages, particularly land and labour costs; investment capital has become better able and more willing to cross borders in search of higher returns and the benefits of diversification; and intra-regional travel and tourism has hit all time highs as more leisure time, higher incomes and substantial improvements in transport infrastructure have encouraged greater regional mobility.

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Volume 1 discussed global event-correlations, impact on the economy, indications in stock markets, sector-specific sensitivities in India, etc.

Volume 2 focuses on

  • The probable intensity of impact and likely scenarios for workspaces
  • The re-calibrations in commercial spaces
  • A conjecture on ‘fast-forwarding’ of an otherwise distant future!
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  • Operational challenges, combined with increased concerns on a second wave of infections in Asia, continued to result in significant underperformance of hospitality, retail and residential sectors in the region. According to STR, Asia Pacific hotel occupancy decreased to 41.2% in February, while RevPAR dropped 36.5% to $44.27, albeit some improvements were reported in March in the hotel sector in China stemming from the resumption of corporate travel.
  • Australia was worst hit among larger markets, as its economy entered a period of “hibernation” to contain the spread of COVID-19.  The Australian economy had avoided recession for almost 30 years, but in 2020 the economy will be in recession.  Taiwan real estate equities and REITS were least impacted by the volatile global macro backdrop especially as it has kept the virus under control.
  • Industrial and healthcare sectors were the only sectors that witnessed positive one-year returns through March. Industrial stocks have benefited from the growth in ecommerce as online orders surged.  Across the region, fiscal policy is working alongside monetary policy to cushion the COVID-19 blow, which should help limit downside risks. 
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  • 运营方面的挑战,再加上对亚洲第二波感染浪潮的忧虑日益加 剧,继续导致该地区的旅游,零售和住宅部门的表现严重不佳。 根据STR的数据,2月份亚太地区酒店入住率下降至41.2%。 尽管3月份中国酒店业因公司旅行的恢复而有所改善, 每间可 用客房收益(RevPAR)仍下降36.5%至44.27美元。
  • 在较大市值的市场中,澳大利亚受到的打击最大,因为其经济 进入了“冬眠”时期,以遏制COVID-19的传播。澳大利亚经济 近30年来一直避免衰退,但到2020年,经济将陷入衰退。受 全球宏观经济动荡的影响,台湾房地产股票和房地产投资信托 基金受到的影响最小,尤其是因为该地区病情受到良好的控制。
  • 直到3月,工业和医疗保健行业是仅有的在过去一年获得正收 益的行业。随着在线订单的激增,工业股票已从电子商务的增 长中受益。在整个地区,财政政策与货币政策一起在缓解 COVID-19所带来的负面压力,这将有助于限制下行风险。
     
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