GPR/APREA Index Report – June 2021

Overview

Stock markets dived in mid-June when the US Fed indicated possible quantitative tightening and a potential interest rate hike by 2023, as investors remained jittery of rising inflationary pressures and its implications on monetary policies. The region’s equity market also fell on concerns amid the strengthening greenback. Further weakness was also evident as the resurgence of outbreaks, which had governments reviving restrictions across several economies, threatened to derail recovery momentum in the region. However, property stocks across the region largely bucked the trend, underpinned by accommodative monetary conditions and sustained interest in dividend-rich stocks amid a yield-starved environment.

Listed Real Estate

Despite outperforming the region’s equities, June was another tepid month for non-REIT real estate stocks in the region with the wider GPR/APREA Listed Real Estate Composite barely staying in positive territory. In a repeat of May, gains in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan just managed to offset caution in the other regional heavyweights of China and Singapore. China’s real estate stocks underperformed for a third month running as policy overhang continued to plague sentiment, with policymakers moving to restrict credit growth and stepped up interventions in markets.

Hong Kong’s shares continued to maintain its positive run, driven by a notable pickup in property sales and prices as well as optimism surrounding it e-voucher scheme, which is designed to boost local consumption. Blackstone’s HK$23.7 billion bid for HKSE-listed Soho China also signaled sustained investor interest. Stocks in India also gained as the country’s central bank continued to maintain  interest rates at record lows.

REITs

The GPR/APREA Composite REIT Index finished strongly in June, outperforming regional equities both in June and for the second quarter. While renewed infection surges could have spurred interest in safe-haven Industrial REITs, the gains were broad based with even the risk-on sectors registering gains. A weakened Japanese yen during the period also spurred investments into J-REITs. Separately, the prospects of an eventual re-opening of its economy and borders supported the performance of Hong Kong REITs.

China’s first batch of REITs made a rousing stock market debut  registering initial gains, as the nine listed REITs – five in Shanghai and four in Shenzhen – drew interest from Chinese retail investors. The nine REITs reportedly raised over RMB30 billion with its retail tranches 10-times over subscribed. For now, C-REITs are backed only by infrastructure assets and offered as units in a fund. But the trial will be closely watched – the success of which could eventually seed measures for further liberalization.

Meanwhile, the Philippine REIT pipeline remains on track. Hot on the heels of Filinvest’s planned third quarter debut of its REIT, the country’s largest office landlord – Megaworld – is looking to unveil the nation’s largest offering that is seeking to raise as much as PHP27.3 billion. Data centre giant, Digital Realty Trust, is also considering an offering in Singapore that could raise up to US$400 million which could come as early as this year. The share sale would tap growing investor interest in data centres. The region’s expanding REIT universe is continuing apace with up to 10 new listings that could occur in the second half of the year.

Outlook

While inflationary pressures will continue to introduce volatility, monetary conditions are expected to remain loose as central banks remain cognizant that an economic recovery remains far from certain. Investors are also choosing to remain focused on the longer term. Countries in the region are now training their sights on increasing vaccination rates, raising the prospects of an accelerated re-opening of its economies. Institutional interests in the region’s commercial real estate have continued to be robust, as investors, awakened by prospects of more favourable entry prices especially in gateway markets, chase deals. The region’s REITs, in the first six months of the year, have returned close to 9.0% to overtake equities, indicating a gradual reversion to long-run fundamentals.

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