Capital Markets

Out of the 19 markets covered in this Asia Pacific report, 11 experienced movements in cap rates in Q1 2024.

The Asian market remains stable, without any factors driving movements in cap rates. Australia and New Zealand have driven the changes in the region, with an increase in cap rates in all the surveyed cities, particularly in the office and industrial sectors.

Key Highlights in Q1 2024

Office sector

• In Australia, after a 72% decrease in transaction volumes in 2023, the first quarter of 2024 has seen only a limited number of completed sales. Sales to date over Q1-24 have continued to indicate a softening of cap rates.
• Bangkok’s office sector has experienced a slight increase in cap rates following a rise in select prime rental rates, despite limited movement in sales transactions.
• Beijing’s office has seen a noticeable decline in demand, resulting in a city-wide vacancy rate reaching double-digit year-on-year growth, currently at 20.7%. The en bloc transaction is currently driven by end-user-occupiers who prioritize suitability and affordability over vacancy and rental performance of the property. Investors remain cautious due to concerns about oversupply and declining rent, resulting in higher expectation for cap rates.
• Additional office supply in Jakarta is expected to enter the non-CBD areas, as many corporates are optimising existing office space instead of expanding or relocating. This is due to the adoption of a hybrid working model, which continues to put pressure on the rental rates and occupancy in CBD office spaces.
• Shanghai’s Grade A office market is still struggling to attract leasing demand, leading to downward pressure on rent. The upcoming supply peak in 2024 is likely to further increase pressure on the leasing market, influencing investor’s confidence and driving up cap rates.

Retail sector

• The Beijing retail sector has demonstrated stability and witnessed growth. This positive performance can be attributed to increased foot traffic and rising revenue in shopping malls, particularly during the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday period in Q1. Shopping malls will need to remain at the forefront with distinctive features to attract consumers to achieve sustainability in the marketplace.
• Hong Kong’s retail investment sector has been primarily driven by end-users and local investors, with cap rate remaining stable. Rental performance has generally remained healthy. Investors are still cautious about purchasing retail assets, being mindful of the vacancy rate.
• The number of visitors to malls in Jakarta has grown by 15% to 20% compared to last year. Some existing brands are expanding their operations, and new brands have also entered the Indonesian market. Investors still remain cautions due to high competition from new malls entering the market.
• Shanghai’s retail sector has also benefited from the robust tourism industry during the CNY holiday. Overall, sales and leasing demand performed well in Q1. The reflection of retail leasing activities and space uptake takes time to manifest in the investment market, resulting in largely flat cap rates during this quarter.

Industrial sector

• Bangkok industrial saw upward movements in sales transactions for warehouse facilities and standard factory buildings. This was caused by strong foreign direct investment intended for large scale users of automotive supply parts (including electronic vehicles) as well as electronics. On the other hand, the rental market remained the same, with no major rental movements noticed.
• Beijing’s industrial sector is currently influenced by end-user. Neighbouring cities such as Tianjing and Langfang have witnessed a decline in rental rates and an upturn in occupancy, which has had an adverse impact on the capital city’s industrial market. The intensified competition among cities to attract tenants has driven demand to shift away from the gateway cities and further weakened investor confidence in the industrial sector.
• The industrial market in Hong Kong remains a high priority for many investors. Import (9.7%) and export (16.6%) figures were positive in the first two months of 2024, which helped keep the industrial market cap rate stable.
• Stressed by the massive new logistics supply in Shanghai, investor prospectus continued to weaken in Q1, resulting in more cautious investment sentiment and higher industrial cap rates.

CBRE professionals in Asia Pacific note that the timing for a recovery in investment activity has been pushed back amid limited risk appetite and delays to interest rate cuts. Nearly 70% of respondents expect a recovery from Q4 2024 onwards.

Cap rate expansion is expected across most markets in Asia Pacific, with cap rates in Australia to expand further, while Japan will remain stable. More pronounced expansions are expected in secondary assets over the next six months.

Other key highlights from the survey include:

• Investors remain net sellers – particularly real estate funds, property companies and banks – but pressure is easing. Meanwhile, private investors continue to have strong net buying intentions.
• The price gap between buyers and sellers is also narrowing across sectors, indicating stronger support for deal closure.
• The survey reveals that in terms of investor preferences, flight-to-quality demand remains, while hotel and multifamily assets are gaining traction on cyclical and structural tailwinds.

CBRE believes that with interest rates having peaked in most Asia Pacific economies, investors should aim to complete acquisitions before rate cuts commence, with the optimal buying window expected to open in the second half of 2024.

This report was originally published in https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/q1-2024-asia-pacific-cap-rate-survey

Q1 2024 Singapore Figures report provides the latest commentary and data on net absorption, rents, vacancy, supply and other key metrics in Singapore’s office, business parks, retail, residential and industrial markets, along with an analysis of real estate investment activity.

Office: Low vacancies, limited supply and flight to quality continued to drive office rental growth. Net absorption was relatively flat in Q1 with no fresh supply.

Business Parks: Overall demand for business parks remained cautious. Shadow space increased due to consolidations within the banking and financial sector.

Retail: The Orchard Road and City Hall/ Marina Centre submarkets continued to outperform in Q1 2024. As such, prime islandwide retail rents sustained its recovery, rising by 1.0% q-o-q.

Residential: New home sales remained muted in Q1 2024 despite a pickup in launches. Private home prices extended their increase but the pace of growth moderated.

Industrial: Given limited options for occupiers seeking prime logistics facilities in the near term, rental performance is still expected to be steady in 2024.

Investment: Preliminary real estate investment volumes in Singapore for Q1 2024 fell 23.4% q-o-q (down 30.9% y-o-y) to $4.372 bn, mainly on a decline in public land sales.

This report was originally published in https://www.cbre.com.sg/insights/figures/singapore-figures-q1-2024

Asia Pacific has emerged as a dominant source and destination for global capital. Singapore, Hong Kong, China and Japan were among the top ten sources of global cross border capital in H2 2023. Notably, Singapore and Hong Kong were the second and thirds biggest sources of global cross border capital respectively.

Japan, China, Australia and Singapore were among the top ten destinations for global cross border capital in H2 2023.

Asia Pacific performed best in 2023, with investment volumes reaching 91% of their 10-year average. While North America reached 68%, the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region reached just over half (52%) of its 10-year average. In 2023, global investment volumes were among the lowest since the global financial crisis with overall investment volumes at 75% of the 10-year average.

The region’s performance was backed by a significant pick-up in investment activities in Q4, primarily in December, signalling the region’s strong potential for recovery in the year ahead. Colliers’ global report highlighted that the forecasts for 2024 and 2025 present Asia Pacific’s strong growth story.

There are signs that interest rates have peaked in some markets in APAC with expectation on more market activities and a gradual recovery in 2024.

The APAC real estate sector was experiencing a low transaction environment in Q4 2023. Owners, investors, and occupiers remained cautious about real estate investments with a lot longer due diligent process. However, the signs of peak interest rate in some APAC markets are resulting a more positive sentiment towards investments in 2024.

Key Highlights in Q4 2023:

Office Sector

• Transaction volume continued to be low across all major Australian office markets. The sales that have begun to complete are predominantly secondary grade assets with value-add potential. These sales are primarily being undertaken by syndicates. These transactions require a significant amount of time to complete due diligence and raise the required capital. The further interest rate rise that occurred in November 2023 continues to put pressure on capitalisation rates. The number of assets being listed and subsequently withdrawn due to pricing disconnect between vendors and purchasers suggests that there is still further cap rate softening to come in 2024.
• The rental rates for office segment have increased slightly in some micro markets of Bengaluru. This improvement was attributed to the commencement of the Mass Rapid Transit System and the overall improvement in connectivity. However, property values have not moved in tandem due to low transaction volume. As a result, the cap rates on the higher end of the range have decreased.
• No en-bloc office sales were transacted in Jakarta last quarter. Office assets along with the new phase of the public light rail transit have triggered investor interest. A huge supply is expected to enter the market. Corporate users have started looking for newly built offices either acquiring the whole building or leasing more space for expansion purposes.
• Office demand in Manila remains lethargic and there is an increase in supply pressure with new office buildings coming onto the market.

Retail Sector

• Retail has been experiencing a consistently low transaction environment for Australia as the market recalibrates based on the increased interest rate environment. Consumer confidence appears to be falling, impacting non-discretionary spending. We expect further cap rate softening into Q1 and Q2 2024 as the price differences between vendor and purchases expectations continues.
• In Bangkok, there were no significant retail transactions in the past quarter to evidence value movements. Retail rents have increased following the opening of some premium malls in core locations, which has pushed the cap rates up slightly. However, the rise in rental value for those premium stock is still yet to be seen whether it will establish a continuing upward trend in the immediate term.
• In the fourth quarter, rental rates in prime areas in Beijing and Shanghai have shown improvements. This upturn can be attributed to the resurgence of consumer engagement in these areas. Despite the overall growth in total retail sales, it will take some time for rental rates to fully adjust and align with the improved consumption. Property owners and landlords are taking a cautious approach to rental growth, allowing adequate time for rents to align with evolving consumption patterns and market condition.
• The retail occupancy and rental performance in Hong Kong have generally remained healthy, thanks to robust domestic consumption. However, investors exhibit caution towards the retail sector due to its high vacancy rate.

Industrial Sector

• Australian industrial market drove the movement in the industrial sector in this survey. The current rental levels are expected to peak in 2024 as a result of tenants’ gross occupancy costs hitting their limit. Nonetheless, vacancy rates are still low across Western Sydney, prime industrial area, which should see rents hold at current levels throughout 2024. However, incentive levels are starting to creep upwards.
• The transactions concluded in Q4 have resulted similar cap rates as the last quarter in Jakarta. Major logistic players have been observed looking for land or joint venture partners.
• The industrial cap rates remained flat owing to stabilization of yields and asset values as sustained demand from the third party logistic (3PL) players, eCommerce and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sectors is countered by new supply in Mumba

Asia Pacific Trends Q3 2023 features in-depth and up-to-date data and insights on the Office, Retail, Industrial & Logistics and Investment markets across the region. Key trends include:

Office:

• Leasing demand remains weak as occupiers stay cautious
• Mainland China, India and Tokyo account for bulk of activity
• Transactions take longer to close due to slow approvals
• Non-banking financial and tech firms drive demand
• Most markets set to remain in favour of tenants

Retail:

• Retail sales moderate but travel demand continues to provide strong tailwinds
• Retailers stay in expansion mode; Location remains key as demand focuses on prime locations
• Consumer demand for unique experiences drives leasing for non-traditional retail space
• Japan remains most upbeat market thanks to strong tourist inflows
• Leasing demand projected to remain robust in coming quarters

Industrial & Logistics:

• Slowing regional economy continues to weigh on leasing activity
• Strong demand from ecommerce platforms and stable activity from 3PLs
• Supply pipeline remains significant
• Investment volume holds steady in the first three quarters of the year
• Leasing and investment volume forecasted to soften

Investment:

• Sentiment remains weak despite slight uptick in investment volume
• Re-pricing continues to constrain purchasing activity
• Retail and hotel assets witness stronger deal flow
• Japan remains most upbeat market
• Investment to stay subdued amid high interest rate environment

{module title=”Asia Pacific Trends Q3 2023 (CBRE)”}

CBRE professionals in Asia Pacific observe that investor risk appetite remains low amid a delayed recovery in investment activity. A majority of respondents expect a recovery from Q2 2024 onwards, amid limited expectations of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2024.

Selling pressure persists across most of the region, with the primary exception of India which is receiving increased buying interest from investors. Most investors – excluding private investors and institutional investors/LPs – also have higher intentions to sell than in Q1 2023.

The survey reveals that the price gap is widening for assets with strong fundamentals, such as multifamily, institutional-grade modern logistics facilities, prime shopping malls, cold storage and data centres.

While institutional-grade logistics remains the most popular sector for investors, interest in retail has increased. Slow re-pricing is prompting investors to seek alternative or niche sectors, with real estate debt strategies gaining traction among alternatives.

Cap rates are set to expand across Asia Pacific, reflecting a prolonged high interest rate environment, and as re-pricing lags behind the US and Europe.

This report was originally published in https://www.cbre.com/insights/figures/asia-pacific-cap-rate-survey-2023-q3

Key findings:

• Australia: Across almost all the Australian cities covered, cap rates in all sectors exhibited an upward movement quarter-on-quarter. Industrial assets in Australia with long lease expirations and low fixed-term rent experienced downward pressure on values during the last quarter.
• China: In China, investment activity remains subdued with only individual investors and insurance institutes actively seeking out discounted assets and adopting a cautious approach to investment. This has resulted in subdued market sentiment in the property sector for Beijing and Shanghai compared to Q2. To vitalize the market environment, the central bank of China has been lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to alleviate the burden on loans, with the objective of unlocking resources for consumption and promoting nationwide GDP growth. In Beijing and Shanghai, the industrial sector experienced a wave of new supply as the take-up of existing stock slowed down. The government’s release of more industrial and logistics land resulted in an augmented supply in the market.
• Hong Kong: Hong Kong interest rates have continued to gradually increase over the past year. Asset values are under increasing downward pressure, which is beginning to be reflected in pricing. Vacancies remain high and rental prices experienced downward pressure across all sectors.
• India: In Bengaluru, Q3 office transaction volumes remained similar to the previous quarter, with a few transactions driven by individual investors as institutional players were less active. Deal sizes were smaller but more resilient, resulting in a marginal downward change in the cap rate in the office segment. In Mumbai, the retail sector is anticipated to gain traction in the near future, driven by demand from the luxury segment and the release of additional supplies of quality organized retail assets. Mumbai industrial demand remained strong in Q3, and the compression in the cap rate was attributed to lower availability of Grade A stock, coupled with a positive outlook from large institutional investors towards the sector. The investors were willing to trade off lower current yields for anticipated future growth in the sector.
• Japan: Some investors may consider Japan a risk averse market for real estate investment since the start of the interest rate hike, primarily due to its relatively accommodative monetary policy. The sales volume of foreign investments in real estate has yet to witness a significant increase, although sentiment and interest remain strong. The Tokyo office sector performed well in Q3, with occupancy rates remaining at a healthy level, especially when considering the challenges faced by some other cities in terms of take-up. This is driven by the return to office culture – government statistics indicate that the hybrid working ratio in Tokyo was 44% in mid-2023, down from a peak of over 64% in 2021.
• Korea: Seoul office assets remain in high demand, with rental levels holding firm for landlords. However, there is increasing downward pressure on values due to a lack of liquidity in the market.
• New Zealand: In Auckland, there has been upward movement for more than a year in the office sector. Transactional activity remained subdued over the last quarter as investors continued to take a cautious approach to the market. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained a steady Official Cash Rate in its last three monetary policy meetings, indicating that rates are at or near their peak in the current cycle. With interest rates stabilising it is anticipated that greater clarity over asset pricing will emerge. This, in combination with the election having been completed, is likely to result in an uplift in sales activity during the final quarter of 2023 ad into 2024.
• Singapore: Cap rates across sectors remain subdued, with a lack of sales evidence to support movement. Increasing lending costs are putting pressure on many investors and owners. However, there are other investors with deep pockets who are taking advantage of this opportunity to acquire assets for long-term investment.

Q3 2023 Singapore Figures report provides the latest commentary and data on net absorption, rents, vacancy, supply and other key metrics in Singapore’s office, business parks, retail, residential and industrial markets, along with an analysis of real estate investment activity.

Executive Summary

Office: Year-to-date, Core CBD (Grade A) rents have increased by 1.3% in 2023. There was positive net absorption of 0.11 mil sq. ft., as compared to a more modest level of 0.03 mil sq. ft. in H1 2023.

Business Parks: Demand for business parks continued to moderate as leasing sentiment turned cautious. Rest of Island rents registered its first quarter of decline since Q1 2021.

Retail: Prime islandwide retail rents rose at a faster clip in Q3 2023 (1.4% q-o-q), compared to 0.8% q-o-q in Q2 2023.

Residential: New home sales slowed despite a larger number of new projects and units launched. Following the fall in overall private housing prices in Q2 2023, prices rebounded.

Industrial: Despite the economic headwinds, prime logistics rents have grown by 11.7% year-to-date, as limited supply of prime logistics space was met with strong leasing demand.

Investment: Preliminary real estate investment volumes in Singapore for Q3 2023 surged 93.4% q-o-q (-13.5% y-o-y) to $7.044 bn, mainly on public (mostly residential) land sales. Excluding these sites, investment volumes would be down marginally by 2.5% q-o-q.

This report was originally published in https://www.cbre.com.sg/insights/figures/singapore-figures-q3-2023

Investors have long-sought after real estate for price appreciation, inflation protection and diversification.

There are a variety of ways to access real estate, including the private route, direct investment in brick-and-mortar properties, debt investments backed by real estate, publicly traded Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and securities, and securitised fixed income instruments. Arguably the most optimal approach is to combine these approaches’ complementary benefits by following what CBRE terms as the ‘Four Quadrants’ approach.

The Four Quadrants approach involves four primary investment conduits through which institutional investors can obtain exposure to commercial real estate. These are:

• Private Equity
• Public Equity
• Private Debt
• Public Debt

This report reviews the Asia Pacific real estate investment landscape across these four quadrants, and shares insights on potential opportunities and strategies for investors.

This report was originally published in https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/asia-pacific-four-quadrants